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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment with the Climate Module
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report summarizes findings from a Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) and the Climate Module (C-PIMA) conducted for Tajikistan. The assessment evaluated the country's public investment management practices, including their climate sensitivity. Tajikistan performs well in certain areas but faces significant gaps in others. Parallel external and internally financed processes present recurring challenges across Tajikistan’s public investment management framework, limiting consistency and strategic alignment. Implementing a comprehensive framework for overseeing all projects, regardless of funding source, would significantly improve efficiency and climate responsiveness.
Keywords:
Republic of Tajikistan; Public investment management; PIMA; C-PIMA; climate change; Green PFM; climate-sensitive infrastructure.; D. Investment allocation; authorities of the Republic of Tajikistan; investment project; Republic of Tajikistan analysis; Investment planning; priorities in Tajikistan; management institution; Public investment spending; Budget planning and preparation; Infrastructure; Central Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances and Social Safety Nets During COVID-19: Evidence From Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic
Nordine Abidi
,
Mehdi Akhbari
,
Bashar Hlayhel
, and
Sahra Sakha
Remittance flows in emerging market and developing economies were surprisingly resilient during the COVID-19 crisis, providing much-needed income support for remittance-receiving households. However, households were impacted differently across income distributions. Using novel high-frequency household panel data for Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that as household income fell during the pandemic, remittance-receiving households were more affected than non-remittance-receiving households. Importantly, we find that the incomes of poor, remittance-receiving households in the Kyrgyz Republic were more adversely affected than their non-remittance-receiving counterparts. In contrast, in Georgia, affluent remittance-receiving households experienced more significant income declines than poor remittance-receiving households. This heterogeneous impact can largely be explained by variations in the effectiveness of social safety nets in the two countries. Our results have important policy implications. Although remittances remained resilient during the pandemic, they affected households differently. As such, policymakers should prioritize addressing gaps in social safety nets to support the most vulnerable.
Keywords:
COVID-19; Remittances; Central Asia; remittance-receiving household; household income; remittance flow; households in Georgia; remittance-sending country; remittance receiver; Income; Social assistance spending; Income distribution; North America; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of International Migration on Inclusive Growth: A Review
Zsoka Koczan
,
Magali Pinat
, and
Mr. Dmitriy L Rozhkov
International migration is an important channel of material improvement for individuals and their offspring. The movement of people across country borders, especially from less developed to richer countries, has a substantial impact in several dimensions. First, it affects the migrants themselves by allowing them to achieve higher income as a result of their higher productivity in the destination country. It also increases the expected income for their offspring. Second, it affects the destination country through the impact on labor markets, productivity, innovation, demographic structure, fiscal balance, and criminality. Third, it can have a significant impact on the countries of origin. It may lead to loss of human capital, but it also creates a flow of remittances and increases international connections in the form of trade, FDI, and technological transfers. This paper surveys our understanding of how migration affects growth and inequality through the impact on migrants themselves as well as on the destination and origin countries.
Keywords:
International Migration; Inequality; Economic growth; complementarity effect; consequences of migration; E. country case; origin country; wage effect; Migration; Remittances; Labor markets; Wages; Income; Global; Eastern Europe; costs of emigration; impact of migration; wage effect of migration
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of Remittances on Natural Rate of Dollarization—Trends in Caucasus and Central Asia
Rocio Gondo
,
Altynai Aidarova
, and
Mr. Manmohan Singh
This paper discusses migration and remittances trends, and calculates the natural (or benchmark) level of dollarization in Caucasus, Central Asia and others in the region. This natural level of dollarization is conceptually linked to the currency allocation in a portfolio of deposits to maximize welfare, in line with Ize and Levy Yeyati (2003). The fall in remittances due to the economic slowdown since the spread of COVID-19 affects the macroeconomic fundamentals that determine demand for foreign currency deposits. We calculate the natural dollarization level by integrating structural macroeconomic characteristics. We show that despite the reduction in deposit dollarization, there is still a gap with respect to the natural level of dollarization, especially in a scenario of (persistent) lower remittance inflows.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; deposit dollarization; natural rate of dollarization; Russia; COVID; remittances; Central Asia; Caucasus; remittance inflow; dollarization policy; benchmark dollarization; dollarization level; exchange rate depreciation; Dollarization; Exchange rates; Currencies; Income; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; loan dollarization rate; Migration
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper identifies constraints to economic growth in the Kyrgyz Republic, using the Hausmann-Velasco-Rodrik diagnostic approach. It finds that large infrastructure gaps, weak governance and rule of law, and high cost of finance appear to be the most binding constraints to private investment and growth. Additional critical factors are the quality of education and onerous regulations. There is room to improve both the quality and cost/efficiency of education spending. Although relatively low, labor costs have exceeded productivity growth and there is room to improve labor market efficiency. Despite important investments, the infrastructure gap remains large and the country ranks relatively low on infrastructure quality. Weak governance undermines growth through various channels: investment, human capital, and productivity. Weak institutions increase the cost of doing business and make the appropriation of investment returns less certain, overall reducing investor’s risk appetite to invest. Public debt is on the high side and the composition of spending is tilted toward current spending.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; cost; firm; Kyrgyzstan; GDP; government; CCA oil exporter; ratios in the Kyrgyz Republic; reform determination; efficiency of education spending; CCA oil importer; state guarantee; consumption threshold; tariff policy; below-cost tariff; redundancy cost; Electricity; Tariffs; Private investment; Energy sector; Consumption; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, November 2018, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, November 2018, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

As in other regions in the world, countries in MENAP and CCA regions are exposed to tightening in global financing conditions and ongoing global trade tensions. The former has already begun to impact several emerging market economies in MENAP and could have more severe implications should financial market sentiment suddenly deteriorate. Escalating global trade tensions will have a limited direct and immediate impact on these regions but could impart significant strains over time through negative effects on trading partners and through market confidence effects.

Keywords:
REO; oil exporter; country; country abbreviation; exporter; oil importer; private investment; CCA region; CCA country; investment ratio; investment opportunity; Oil prices; Private investment; Oil; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; MENAP oil-importing country; Fiscal consolidation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Lessons from the Old Masters on Assessing Equity and Efficiency: A Primer for Fiscal Policymakers
Vitor Gaspar
,
Mr. Paolo Mauro
, and
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
How can a society’s well-being be measured to include not only average incomes but also their distribution? How can the effects of policies be assessed by considering both equity and efficiency? This primer outlines the seminal contributions of influential economists of the past, including Arthur Okun, who developed a simple method to elicit people’s preferences regarding redistribution, and Anthony Atkinson, who showed how equity and efficiency can be measured simultaneously and summarized in a single, intuitive index expressed in monetary units (such as dollars). These methods are applied to recent data to gauge how countries fare when both mean incomes and their distribution are considered together, and to a hypothetical tax-and-transfer scheme assessed through a general equilibrium model for household-level data.
Keywords:
WP; income; equality component; equality and efficiency; fiscal redistribution; income distribution; inequality aversion; taxation model; mean income; Personal income; Income inequality; Income distribution; Purchasing power parity; Consumption; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Identifying Structural Reform Gaps in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia
Mr. Norbert Funke
,
Asel Isakova
, and
Maksym Ivanyna
Using data from the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report as an example, this paper compares structural indicators for 25 countries in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia with a generic country with similar charactersitics that is 40 percent richer as well as a country with the average EU income. This comparison suggests that improvements will be particularly crucial in the areas of institutions, financial market development, infrastructure, goods and labor market efficiency and areas related to innovation. For the generally more ambitious goal of reaching average EU income, the reform needs are correspondingly larger. The methodology focuses on (approximate) comparisons between countries and does not try to establish the link between structural reforms and growth. While we test for changes in empirical specifications, caveats relate to the quality of structural indicators, possible non-linearities, and reform complementarities. The approach can be applied to other indicators and at a more granular level.
Keywords:
WP; structural reforms; CESEE; Caucasus; Central Asia; reform gaps; country indicator k; ECA country; reform indicator; better-off country; country knowledge; Personal income; Labor markets; Financial sector development; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover Spillover Notes
The Spillover Effects of Russia’s Economic Slowdown on Neighboring Countries
Ara Stepanyan
,
Agustin Roitman
,
Gohar Minasyan
,
Ms. Dragana Ostojic
, and
Mr. Natan P. Epstein
In the face of sharply lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions and sanctions, economic activity in Russia decelerated in late 2014, resulting in negative spillovers on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and, to a lesser extent, on Baltic countries. The spillovers to eastern Europe have been limited. The degree of impact is commensurate with the level of these countries’ trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) links with Russia. So far, policy action by the affected countries has focused on mitigating the immediate consequences of spillovers.
Keywords:
SN; Russia; exchange rate; CIS country; CIS oil importer; growth slowdown; import ban; exchange rate depreciation; growth shock; Spillovers; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Depreciation; Remittances; Baltics; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyzstan; remittance; loan; Kyrgyz VAT rate; VAT collection; remittances inflow; wage bill; accrual reporting; Credit; Loans; Remittances; Income inequality; Corporate income tax; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Central Asia