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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of International Migration on Inclusive Growth: A Review
Zsoka Koczan
,
Magali Pinat
, and
Mr. Dmitriy L Rozhkov
International migration is an important channel of material improvement for individuals and their offspring. The movement of people across country borders, especially from less developed to richer countries, has a substantial impact in several dimensions. First, it affects the migrants themselves by allowing them to achieve higher income as a result of their higher productivity in the destination country. It also increases the expected income for their offspring. Second, it affects the destination country through the impact on labor markets, productivity, innovation, demographic structure, fiscal balance, and criminality. Third, it can have a significant impact on the countries of origin. It may lead to loss of human capital, but it also creates a flow of remittances and increases international connections in the form of trade, FDI, and technological transfers. This paper surveys our understanding of how migration affects growth and inequality through the impact on migrants themselves as well as on the destination and origin countries.
Keywords:
International Migration; Inequality; Economic growth; complementarity effect; consequences of migration; E. country case; origin country; wage effect; Migration; Remittances; Labor markets; Wages; Income; Global; Eastern Europe; costs of emigration; impact of migration; wage effect of migration
Cover IMF Working Papers
SME Financial Inclusion for Sustained Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Mishel Ghassibe
,
Maximiliano Appendino
, and
Samir Elsadek Mahmoudi
This paper offers empirical evidence that greater financial inclusion of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can promote higher economic growth and employment, especially in the Middle East and Central Asia regions. First, we show that countries with higher SME financial inclusion exhibit more effective monetary policy transmission and tax collection. Second, we find substantial employment and labor productivity growth gains at the firm level from access to credit, gains that are higher for SMEs. We also obtain evidence of a substantial positive impact on SME employment and labor productivity growth from improved credit bureau coverage and insolvency regimes. Finally, cross-country aggregate evidence confirms the employment and growth gains from SME financial inclusion, which appear larger in the Middle East and Central Asia than in other regions.
Keywords:
WP; SME financial inclusion; Small and Medium Sized Enterprises; Financial Inclusion; Economic Growth; monetary policy transmission; growth gain; output gap; SME Financial inclusion index; labor productivity gain; SME employment; employment growth; Small and medium enterprises; Labor productivity; Productivity; Employment; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper identifies constraints to economic growth in the Kyrgyz Republic, using the Hausmann-Velasco-Rodrik diagnostic approach. It finds that large infrastructure gaps, weak governance and rule of law, and high cost of finance appear to be the most binding constraints to private investment and growth. Additional critical factors are the quality of education and onerous regulations. There is room to improve both the quality and cost/efficiency of education spending. Although relatively low, labor costs have exceeded productivity growth and there is room to improve labor market efficiency. Despite important investments, the infrastructure gap remains large and the country ranks relatively low on infrastructure quality. Weak governance undermines growth through various channels: investment, human capital, and productivity. Weak institutions increase the cost of doing business and make the appropriation of investment returns less certain, overall reducing investor’s risk appetite to invest. Public debt is on the high side and the composition of spending is tilted toward current spending.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; cost; firm; Kyrgyzstan; GDP; government; CCA oil exporter; ratios in the Kyrgyz Republic; reform determination; efficiency of education spending; CCA oil importer; state guarantee; consumption threshold; tariff policy; below-cost tariff; redundancy cost; Electricity; Tariffs; Private investment; Energy sector; Consumption; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Use of Third-Party Indicators in Fund Reports
International Monetary Fund
Fund staff use indicators developed by other organizations as input into analysis in surveillance and, to a lesser extent, in program work. While the Fund has been able to rely on data and statistics provided by member countries and compiled internally, continued efforts to foster global economic and financial stability require staff to work with indicators drawn from numerous third-party compilers. These indicators of varied qualities are used to measure concepts such as business environment, competitiveness, and quality of governance. It is anticipated that staff will continue to draw on other institutions’ expertise and estimates. This practice is consistent with the Executive Board’s guidance in areas where internal expertise is lacking or limited. It also puts a premium on staff’s understanding of the third-party indicators (TPIs) used to add analytical value, avoid flawed conclusions and presentation, and support traction with the membership. This paper outlines a framework to promote best practice with respect to use of TPIs in Fund reports. The framework will apply to all documents that are subject to the Fund’s Transparency Policy. Staff are encouraged to follow similar guidelines for other Fund documents. It draws on lessons from the current practice in the Fund and other selected international organizations (IOs), and insights from the application of an adapted data quality assessment framework (DQAF) to a subset of TPIs commonly used by Fund staff. Common good practices across IOs include the emphasis on staff judgment, review, and consultation with stakeholders.
Keywords:
PP; third-party indicator; director; fund staff; indicator; staff effort; staff analysis; staff report; Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF); Business environment; Corruption; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
The Caucasus and Central Asia: Transitioning to Emerging Markets
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) have recorded significant macroeconomic achievements since independence. These countries have grown more rapidly-—on average by 7 percent over 1996–2011—-than those in many other regions of the world and poverty has declined. Inflation has come down sharply from high rates in the 1990s and interest rates have fallen. Financial sectors have deepened somewhat, as evidenced by higher deposits and lending. Fiscal policies were broadly successful in building buffers prior to the global crisis and those buffers were used effectively by many CCA countries to support growth and protect the most vulnerable as the crisis washed across the region. CCA oil and gas exporters have achieved significant improvements in living standards with the use of their energy wealth.
Keywords:
CCA country; monetary policy; financial system; exchange rate; transmission mechanism; emerging market; natural resource; CCA IMF country team recommendation; banking sector; Financial sector; Infrastructure; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Central Asia; East Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Eastern Europe; Er-CCA country; CCA economy; CCA government; foreign direct investment; Natural resources
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Yasser Abdih
and
Leandro Medina
This study estimates the size of the informal economy, and the relative contribution of each underlying factor, for the Caucasus and Central Asia countries in 2008. Using a Multiple Indicator-Multiple Cause model, we find that a burdensome tax system, rigid labor market, low institutional quality, and excessive regulation in financial and products markets are determinant factors in explaining the size of the informal economy, which ranges from 26 percent of GDP in Kyrgyz Republic to around 35 percent of GDP in Armenia. Furthermore, the results show that higher levels of informality increase the levels of self employment and the percentage of currency held outside the banking system.
Keywords:
WP; financial market; regulation; unobserved informal economy; Informal economy; latent variable; Caucasus and Central Asia; informal economy variance; product market restriction; size of the informal economy; informal economy size; informal economy for the Caucasus and Central Asia; Commodity markets; Tax incidence; Self-employment; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The paper focuses on the workings of the Medium-Term Development Program (MTDP) of the Kyrgyz Republic. Raising living standards as well as taking measures for reducing poverty have been cited as the main priority areas of the strategy, and the measures to be undertaken to bring about improvements in these areas are highlighted. The report also throws light on the major objectives of MTDP’s three-year strategy during the period from 2012–14.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Medium-Term Development Program; government; governance; MTDP implementation; authorities' Medium-Term Development Program; government strategy; policy choice; scenario aim; government's MTDP; Poverty reduction; Public sector; Poverty reduction strategy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inclusive Growth, Institutions, and the Underground Economy
Mr. Adil Mohommad
,
Mr. Anoop Singh
, and
Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra
Worldwide protests against the perceived lack of economic opportunity and failure of governance have refocused attention on the need for inclusive growth and strong institutions. In developing countries, large informal economies limit state capacity to deliver governance and strong institutions, which in turn discourages participation in and expansion of the formal economy. This paper analyzes the determinants of the underground economy, with particular emphasis on the role of institutions and the rule of law. We find that when businesses are faced with onerous regulation, inconsistent enforcement and corruption, they have an incentive to hide their activities in the underground economy. Empirical analysis suggests that institutions are a more important determinant of the size of the underground economy than tax rates.
Keywords:
WP; economy; underground economy; shadow economy; economic activity; institutions; IFS database; shadow economy rise; size of the shadow economy; informal economy limit; unofficial economy; Informal economy; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Kyrgyz Republic - Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement
International Monetary Fund
This report reviews the Kyrgyz Republic’s economic performance under Fund-supported programs from early 2005 to mid-2010. Two Fund-supported programs are assessed: the March 2005 Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF, which expired in May 2008), and the December 2008 Exogenous Shock Facility (ESF, which expired in June 2010). Earlier Fund-supported programs were discussed in the Kyrgyz Republic’s first Ex Post Assessment (EPA), which was completed in November 2004. The assessment does not cover performance under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), which was approved by the Executive Board on September 15, 2010.
Keywords:
PP; Kyrgyzstan; Kyrgyz authorities; government; ESF; Kyrgyz economy; Kyrgyz republic; financial crisis; broad money; growth performance; Kyrgyz growth; exchange rate; monetary policy; government operation; Kyrgyz Republic-corruption perception ndex; Energy sector; Financial sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Joint Staff Advisory Note
International Monetary Fund
This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) highlights the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper–Country Development Strategy (PRSP–CDS) for the Kyrgyz Republic for 2007–10. The Kyrgyz authorities’ CDS for 2007–10 builds on the policy experience from the National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS). This JSAN provides advice on key priorities for strengthening the strategy and promoting the effective implementation of CDS. It reviews poverty trends, macroeconomic and sectoral policies in support of the strategy, and the mechanisms for monitoring and evaluating progress.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; CDS discussion; Kyrgyz authorities' Country Development Strategy; budget deficit; government apparatus; poverty reduction; labor market; implementation of the CDS; CDS' emphasis; transport policy; debt management; Credit default swap; Poverty reduction strategy; Business environment; Poverty reduction