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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Drivers of Inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Alejandro Hajdenberg
,
Dalia Kadissi
,
Giulio Lisi
, and
Nasir H Rao
In parallel with global developments, inflation in the Central Asia and Caucasus (CCA) has exhibited large swings in recent years. This paper investigates inflation dynamics in the CCA and its main drivers and derives conclusions that can inform policymaking. The analysis is based on three empirical approaches. Inflation drivers and its dynamics are investigated through the estimation of a Phillips curve augmented with foreign factors and a panel vector autoregression. The paper also assesses the role of monetary policy in steering inflation outcomes by estimating a local projection model. The paper finds that external factors play a major role in determining CCA inflation dynamics, although domestic factors (e.g., demand conditions, expectations) also contribute. Monetary policy is found to have a statistically significant effect on inflation, including by moderating the impact of external drivers. The findings point to the need to continue strengthening policy frameworks to steer expectations and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, while establishing adequate social safety nets to cushion the impact from global shocks.
Keywords:
Inflation; Caucasus and Central Asia; Phillips curve; panel VAR; local projection method; monetary policy; CCA inflation dynamics; inflation driver; Phillips Curve estimation; inflation development; inflation outcome; Food prices; Output gap; Nominal effective exchange rate; Oil prices; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
Committing to Grow: The Full Impact of WTO Accessions
André Brotto
,
Adam Jakubik
,
Roberta Piermartini
, and
Fulvio Silvy
This paper studies the impact of the process of accession to the WTO on growth rates in a sample of 150 economies. Unlike GATT-era accessions, WTO accessions involve reforms that extend beyond conventional trade liberalization measures. Using information on the pace of negotiations and requests in the working party's meetings, we construct an index that tracks the progress of reforms in the pre-accession period. We estimate that economies that implemented reforms and made deeper commitments during their WTO accession negotiations grew on average 1.5 percentage points faster than they otherwise would have. These results are robust to instrumental variable estimation and falsification tests.
Keywords:
WTO accession; structural reforms; trade and growth; commitment index; GATT-era accession; accession mode; accession effect; accession period; General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; Estimation techniques; Tariffs; Trade barriers; Trade policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Managing Foreign Exchange Rate Risk: Capacity Development for Public Debt Managers in Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries
Thordur Jonasson
,
Sheheryar Malik
,
Kay Chung
, and
Michael G. Papaioannou
This paper presents some sound practices for foreign-currency risk management in developing countries and outlines instruments for managing sovereign debt portfolio currency exposures. Adoption of a debt management strategy with well-defined targets for foreign exchange risk is a critical element of public debt risk management. To this end, public debt managers often need to face with complex strategic and operational matters related to public debt hedging practices, including the use of derivatives. In this context, we highlight the main institutional challenges in the management of foreign exchange risk in sovereign debt portfolios and discuss the overall implementation of a foreign exchange risk-management strategy.
Keywords:
exchange rate risk risk management; debt portfolio; public debt manager; currency exposure; risk-management strategy; Government debt management; Debt management; Currencies; Exchange rate risk; Foreign currency debt; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Frameworks and Communication in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Omer Faruk Akbal
,
Klakow Akepanidtaworn
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Mariarosaria Comunale
,
Mrs. Marina Conesa Martinez
, and
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
Central banks in Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) have been enhancing their monetary policy frameworks in the last decade, and are at different stages of the transition to a type of inflation targeting regimes. This paper documents their progress and the current state of their monetary policy framework, utilizing the IAPOC index developed by Unsal and others (2022) covering Independence and Accountability, Policy and Operational Strategy, and Communications, as well as drawing from central banks’ laws and websites. Additionally, an analysis of press releases from CCA central banks is conducted to evaluate their features, content, and tones. The findings highlight the need for further improvements in the areas of Independence and Accountability, as well as Communications, despite some recent advancements in the latter.
Keywords:
Caucasus and Central Asia; Monetary Policy Frameworks; Communication.; CCA inflation; central banks in Caucasus and Central Asia; IMF working paper No. 2023/251; IAPOC Index; CCA country; Monetary policy communication; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Market interest rates; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
Taming Financial Dollarization: Determinants and Effective Policies – The Case of Uruguay
Mr. Mauricio Vargas
and
Jesus Sanchez
With some of the most significant levels of financial dollarization in the Western Hemisphere, Uruguay is characterized by extensive dollarization in both deposits and loans. While traditional factors like high inflation and substantial devaluations have been associated with such outcome, the enduring nature of dollarization in Uruguay also underscores the importance of structural elements. In formulating a holistic strategy to reduce dollarization, not only should there be an enhancement of the monetary policy framework aimed at maintaining low, stable inflation, but it should also consider the calibration of prudential policies such as currency-differentiated reserve requirements and foreign-currency credit repos.
Keywords:
Dollarization; Prudential Policies; Monetary Policy; Uruguay; Peru.; deposit dollarization; dollarization trend; credit repo; financial dollarization; dollarization level; Inflation; Reserve requirements; Exchange rates; Currencies; Global; South America; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances and Social Safety Nets During COVID-19: Evidence From Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic
Nordine Abidi
,
Mehdi Akhbari
,
Bashar Hlayhel
, and
Sahra Sakha
Remittance flows in emerging market and developing economies were surprisingly resilient during the COVID-19 crisis, providing much-needed income support for remittance-receiving households. However, households were impacted differently across income distributions. Using novel high-frequency household panel data for Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that as household income fell during the pandemic, remittance-receiving households were more affected than non-remittance-receiving households. Importantly, we find that the incomes of poor, remittance-receiving households in the Kyrgyz Republic were more adversely affected than their non-remittance-receiving counterparts. In contrast, in Georgia, affluent remittance-receiving households experienced more significant income declines than poor remittance-receiving households. This heterogeneous impact can largely be explained by variations in the effectiveness of social safety nets in the two countries. Our results have important policy implications. Although remittances remained resilient during the pandemic, they affected households differently. As such, policymakers should prioritize addressing gaps in social safety nets to support the most vulnerable.
Keywords:
COVID-19; Remittances; Central Asia; remittance-receiving household; household income; remittance flow; households in Georgia; remittance-sending country; remittance receiver; Income; Social assistance spending; Income distribution; North America; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reducing Dollarization in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Selim Cakir
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mazin Al Riyami
,
Nia Sharashidze
, and
Nathalie Reyes
Declining but still high dollarization rates in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region affect macroeconomic stability, monetary policy transmission, and financial sector development. Although several studies have investigated the dynamics of dollarization in the CCA, the relative roles of macrofinancial policies and financial market development in the de-dollarization process have not yet been assessed empirically. This paper takes stock of de-dollarization efforts and explores the short-term drivers of financial de‐dollarization in the CCA region. It highlights that there remains significant scope to further reduce dollarization through continued progress in strengthening macroeconomic policy frameworks and in developing markets and institutions.
Keywords:
Dollarization; Foreign Currency; Foreign Exchange; FX; Monetary Policy; Central Asia; Caucasus; CCA.; deposit dollarization; De-dollarization policy; credit dollarization; dollarization to a shock; dollarization in the CCA region; Currencies; Credit; De-dollarization; Central Asia and the Caucasus; rates in the Caucasus and Central Asia; dollarization to issuance; Reserve requirements
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Development and Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
This paper presents stylized facts on financial development in the CCA countries relative to their EM and LIC peers and assesses how financial development can boost growth in the CCA. Drawing on IMF’s multidimensional index of financial development, we find that CCA countries have made progress following the independence in early 1990s. However, the progress was uneven across the CCA, resulting in a divergence of financial development over time and mixed performance relative to EM and LIC peers. Financial institutions have progressed the most, while financial markets remain underdevelped in most CCA countries except Kazakhstan. In terms of sub-indicators of financial development, financial access has expanded markedly, while the depth of financial intermediation has remained largely shallow and efficiency of financial intermediation has fluctuated over time. Standard growth regressions suggest that CCA countries with relatively lower level of financial development have scope to boost annual growth rates between 0.5-2.5 percent by reaching the level of financial development of frontier CCA countries.
Keywords:
Caucasus and Central Asia; financial development; output growth; CCA country; financial markets market index; growth regression; LIC peer; growth in the Caucasus; Financial sector development; Stock markets; Financial statistics; Central Asia and the Caucasus; CCA economy; CCA LIC; CCA EM; financial institution index
Cover IMF Working Papers
Digital Money and Central Bank Operations
Mr. Charles M. Kahn
,
Mr. Manmohan Singh
, and
Jihad Alwazir
The rise of new and proposed monetary vehicles, including CBDC, stablecoins, payment service providers etc., are unprecedented. An important question for central banks is the extent to which these innovations upend the role of and implementation of monetary policy. The paper focuses on the interest rate channel and if digital money (especially CBDC) will change monetary policy and central bank operations. We argue that new policy instruments make sense only to the extent that there is limited substitutability between the various payment sectors. We analyze trends in currency-in-circulation, and how it may impact central bank’s seigniorage, monetary base, and transactional velocity of digital money if money demand declines. Liquidity outside the monetary base will also be important to understand.
Keywords:
Base money; CBDC; central banking operations; currency in circulation; digital money; mobile phone operators; seigniorage; central bank operations Charles Kahn; jihad Alwazir; lender-of-last-resort facilities; payments assets; phone company payments account; central bank profits; central bank regulation; Monetary base; Digital currencies; Central Bank digital currencies; Currencies; Commercial banks
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Frameworks: An Index and New Evidence
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
,
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
, and
Hendre Garbers
We provide a multidimensional characterization of monetary policy frameworks across three pillars: Independence and Accountability, Policy and Operational Strategy, and Communications (IAPOC). We construct the IAPOC index by analyzing central banks’ laws and websites for 50 advanced economies, emerging markets, and low-income developing countries, from 2007 to 2018. Due to its scope and granularity, our index provides a holistic view of monetary policy frameworks which goes beyond existing measures of transparency or independence, as well as monetary policy or exchange rate regime classifications. Comparing the IAPOC index across countries and over time, we find that monetary policymaking is varied, fast-changing, and eclectic across the Policy and Operational Strategy and Communications pillars, especially in emerging markets and low-income developing countries.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Monetary Policy Regime; Exchange Rate Regime; Central Banks; Central Bank Independence; Central Bank Transparency; IAPOC index; B. II; strengthening of Independence; regime classification; novel Policy; transparency indices; Monetary policy frameworks; Exchange rate arrangements; Inflation targeting; Exchange rate flexibility; Central bank autonomy; Africa; Global