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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2020, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2020, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia region have been hit by two large and reinforcing shocks, resulting in significantly weaker growth projections in 2020. In addition to the devastating toll on human health, the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in oil prices are causing economic turmoil in the region, with fragile and conflict affected states particularlyhard-hit given already large humanitarian and refugee challenges and weak health infrastructures. The immediate priority for policies is to save lives with needed health spending, regardless of fiscal space, while preserving engines of growth with targeted support to households and hard-hit sectors. In this context, the IMF has been providing emergency assistance to help countries in the region during these challenging times. Further ahead, economic recoveries should be supported with broad fiscal and monetary measures where policy space is available, and by seeking external assistance where space is limited.

Keywords:
REO; MENAP oil exporter; CCA oil exporter; financial support; exporter
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has weakened the macroeconomic outlook. The authorities have launched a health care contingency plan and an initial package of economic measures, together totaling $31 million (0.4 percent of GDP), and are preparing a second, larger package of economic measures of about $400 million (5.2 percent of GDP). To help address an urgent balance of payments need arising from the pandemic, estimated at about $500 million, the authorities request an additional purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) of 33.3 percent of quota (SDR 59.2 million) and a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of 16.7 percent of quota (SDR 29.6 million) under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF. This follows Board approval on March 26, 2020 of the authorities’ earlier request for the same amounts, before the doubling of the annual access on emergency financing under the “exogenous shock” window of the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) to 100 percent of quota was approved on April 6, 2020. This additional request will bring the total purchases under the RFI and the disbursements under the RCF to 100 percent of quota in 2020.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF emergency support; support; Executive Board discussion; enterprise
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Debt Sustainability Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Kyrgyz Republic’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The COVID-19 pandemic has been hitting the Kyrgyz economy very hard and created an urgent balance of payments need. All sectors are being impacted with extreme severity as measures are being taken to stop the spread of the virus. Given the unprecedented high level of uncertainty, IMF emergency support under the Rapid Financing Instrument and the Rapid Credit Facility helps provide a backstop and increase buffers and shore up confidence. It also helps to preserve fiscal space for essential COVID- 19-related health expenditure and catalyze donor support. Banks’ capital and liquidity buffers need to be used to absorb credit losses and the liquidity squeeze. Once these buffers are exhausted, the central bank needs to show flexibility on the timing of bringing capital and liquidity above the minimum required, considering the length of the crisis. Expeditious donor support is needed to close the remaining balance of payments gap and ease the adjustment burden.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF support; balance of payments gap
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The economy is growing steadily, benefiting from a benign regional environment, particularly in Russia, the source of most remittances and non-gold export receipts. Low inflation, lower fiscal deficits, and a stable banking sector point to the success of stabilization policies implemented by the government and National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR, the central bank) under eight successive Fund-supported programs. However, the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks because of the high level of remittances (29 percent of GDP), the concentration of exports on gold (37 percent of exports of goods), the level and composition of the public debt (56 percent of GDP, 4/5 of which is denominated in foreign currency), and the level of the current account deficit (8.7 percent of GDP). In addition, economic growth has been insufficient to significantly raise living standards and continue to reduce poverty.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; IMF government Finance Statistics Manual; Kyrgyzstan
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; cost; firm; Kyrgyzstan; GDP; government
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Fourth and Fifth Reviews under the Three-Year Arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
A moderate economic recovery is underway, driven by higher gold production, remittances, and growth in key trading partners. The recent tightening of controls on the border with Kazakhstan will have some limited impact on the economy this year but could weaken trade and growth substantially if it persists. Inflation is normalizing with the rise of food prices. The banking sector is showing signs of recovery but vulnerabilities remain. The October elections slowed reforms and put additional pressure on the budget, although the government has since taken offsetting measures. Public debt remains at moderate risk of distress, helped by som appreciation. The fourth review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, which was originally scheduled to be completed in June, could not be completed on time. Since then, the authorities have taken corrective measures, which paved the way for moving forward with the combined fourth and fifth reviews.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyz authorities; debt; government; deficit
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Staff Report; and Press Release
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
KEY ISSUES Context. Performance under the previous Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, which expired last July, was good. Macroeconomic stability was restored, fiscal consolidation was stronger than planned, monetary policy was enhanced through a new interest rate-based framework, and supervision was strengthened in the financial sector. Nevertheless, the economy is facing challenges: (i) a weak regional economic environment, (ii) some key reforms have yet to be implemented, particularly in PFM and the banking sector, and (iii) a higher public debt due to the materialization of an ambitious investment program. Accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is expected to take effect in May, and parliamentary elections are slated for late 2015. Program objectives. In light of the challenges, the Kyrgyz authorities have requested a new 36-month ECF arrangement, with access equivalent to SDR 66.6 million (or 75 percent of quota). The program aims to support the authorities’ efforts to generate inclusive growth and reduce poverty through reducing macroeconomic vulnerabilities, achieving fiscal sustainability, supporting banking sector reforms, strengthening debt management, and encouraging structural reforms to expand the economy’s potential. The program would also help unlock support from official lenders and provide safeguards against adverse shocks. Program policies. Fiscal consolidation will pause in 2015 to accommodate external shocks, but will resume in 2016–17 to maintain public debt at sustainable levels. Public debt management will be strengthened through the preparation of a medium-term debt management strategy to be complemented by a review of the public investment framework. Monetary policy will be tighter to keep inflation under control. The exchange rate will continue to be flexible, with limited interventions to smooth volatility. Banking sector resilience will be strengthened through the introduction of macro-prudential measures and the adoption of a comprehensive Banking Code. Structural reforms will be stepped up to expand the economy’s potential. Staff views. Staff supports the authorities’ request for an ECF arrangement under a Fund-supported program. The LOI/MEFP provides an adequate set of policies to pursue the objectives of the Fund-supported program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Kyrgyzstan; ECF arrangement; Kyrgyz authorities
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility; Staff Report; and Press Release
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Political context. On April 3, 2014, parliament approved a new government, led by Mr. Otorbaev, the new Prime Minister. The ministers of economy and finances kept their positions. Moreover, on May 7, 2014, a new chairperson was appointed for the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR). No major changes in economic policies are expected. In February 2014, parliament approved a new deal with Centerra, ending a two-year dispute over the Kumtor gold mine. Background. In the first quarter, growth moderated to 5.6 percent (year-on-year) after the 2013 growth spike at 10.5 percent related to an unexpectedly high level of gold production. In the same period, inflation picked up slightly, owing to depreciation of the som in response to pressures from the depreciation of the Russian ruble and the devaluation of the Kazakh tenge. The NBKR intervened heavily to mitigate these pressures, but has recently rebuilt reserves to ensure a more comfortable level of over three months of imports. The current account is expected to deteriorate this year because of higher imports related to large public investments and FDI-financed infrastructure projects. Fiscal performance in 2013 was better than expected, with a deficit of 4 percent of GDP, but revenue headwinds call for a cautious budget in 2014. The medium-term outlook remains broadly favorable, provided prudent macroeconomic policies continue and are supported with structural reforms, including tax policy and administration reforms, public financial management (PFM) reforms, and implementation of FSAP recommendations, in particular the Banking Code. Program. The program is broadly on track, with all end-December 2013 quantitative performance criteria and all but one indicative targets (IT) met for end-December 2013. Although three March 2014 ITs were missed, since then there has been progress in rebuilding reserves and enhancing tax collections. The two structural benchmarks (SBs) for end-December were met, and the SB on signing the contract with one of the big four audit companies to audit the Debt Resolution Agency (DEBRA) is expected to be completed with delay. The remaining SB on introducing the Treasury Single Account (TSA) on a pilot basis was missed. Overall, the Kyrgyz authorities are completing a broadly successful three-year ECF arrangement, although further reforms will be needed to preserve and deepen the accomplishments. Despite occasional domestic political turmoil, the authorities have regained and maintained macroeconomic stability, consolidated the fiscal position, implemented a new monetary framework, and embarked on a comprehensive banking sector reform. The authorities have not yet expressed their intentions regarding a successor program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; ECF arrangement; Kyrgyz authorities; SDR
Cover Departmental Papers
The Caucasus and Central Asia: Transitioning to Emerging Markets
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) have recorded significant macroeconomic achievements since independence. These countries have grown more rapidly-—on average by 7 percent over 1996–2011—-than those in many other regions of the world and poverty has declined. Inflation has come down sharply from high rates in the 1990s and interest rates have fallen. Financial sectors have deepened somewhat, as evidenced by higher deposits and lending. Fiscal policies were broadly successful in building buffers prior to the global crisis and those buffers were used effectively by many CCA countries to support growth and protect the most vulnerable as the crisis washed across the region. CCA oil and gas exporters have achieved significant improvements in living standards with the use of their energy wealth.
Keywords:
CCA country; monetary policy; financial system; exchange rate; transmission mechanism; emerging market; natural resource; CCA IMF country team recommendation; banking sector; Financial sector; Infrastructure; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Central Asia; East Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyzstan; Kyrgyz government; SDB law; business environment; rate