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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper highlights Jordan’s First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Jordan’s economy continues to show resilience despite a challenging external environment. The economy continues to grow, albeit at a somewhat slower pace, inflation is low, and reserve buffers are strong. Growth is projected to pick up pace in 2025, contingent upon the Israel-Gaza conflict ending and its impact fading. Uncertainty is high, however, and structural challenges remain, with continued high unemployment. Strong progress was also made in implementing structural benchmarks (SBs), with all six SBs for the first review met, and with good progress being made toward meeting SBs for the next review. The authorities remain firmly committed to sound macro-economic policies and advancing structural reforms, to maintain macro stability, further strengthen economic resilience in the face of successive external shocks, and foster stronger, job-rich growth. Steadfast implementation of structural reforms is crucial to create a more dynamic private sector that can generate sufficient jobs and contribute to higher living standards.
Keywords:
IMF's transparency policy; government finance; Jordan's economy; authorities' policy effort; near-term outlook; Fiscal stance; Structural reforms; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan
Adel Al-Sharkas
,
Nedal Al-Azzam
,
Sarah AlTalafha
,
Rasha Abu Shawish
,
Ahmad Shalein
,
Auday Rawwaqah
,
Amany Al-Rawashdeh
,
Daniel Baksa
,
Mr. Philippe D Karam
, and
Mr. Jan Vlcek
The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has developed a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to serve as a reliable analytical framework for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and decision-making under a pegged exchange rate regime. At the heart of the FPAS is the CBJ’s extended Jordan Analysis Model (JAM2.0). The model captures the monetary transmission mechanism and provides a consistent monetary policy framework that uses the exchange rate as an effective nominal anchor. This paper outlines the structure and properties of JAM2.0 and emphasizes the enhanced interplay and tradeoffs among monetary, fiscal, and foreign exchange management policies. Simulation and forecasting exercises demonstrate JAM2.0’s ability to match key stylized facts of the Jordanian economy, produce accurate forecasts of important macroeconomic variables, and explain the critical relationships among policies.
Keywords:
forecasting exercise; policy analysis; model forecasting; FX reserve management; headline inflation; Inflation; Exchange rate arrangements; Output gap; Real exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Personal Income Taxes in the Middle East and North Africa: Prospects and Possibilities
Mario Mansour
and
Eric M. Zolt
Personal income taxes (PITs) play little or no role in the Middle East and North Africa, often yielding less than 2 percent of GDP in revenue—with the exception of few North African countries. This paper examines how PITs have evolved in recent decades, and what they might look like in the next 20 years. Top marginal tax rates on labor and business income of individuals have declined substantially, a trend that mirrors reductions in advanced and developing economies. Taxation of passive capital income has changed very little, and the revenue intake from this source remains low throughout the region (less than 1 percent of GDP on average and concentrated in oil-importing non-fragile states). Social security contributions (SSC) have increased in importance in nearly all MENA countries, and some countries have introduced additional payroll taxes. The combination of reduced marginal tax rates, light taxation of income from capital and business activities, and increase of SSC, have resulted in income tax systems that create disincentives to work and incentives for informality, and contribute little to government revenue and income redistribution. Given differences in economic and political structures, demographics, and starting points, the path to PIT/SSC reforms will vary across the region. Countries with relatively mature PIT/SSC systems, where revenue performance has improved in the past two decades, will increasingly need to balance the revenue and equity objectives against effciency objectives (in particular labor market incentives and infromality). Countries with no PITs will have to weigh whether a consumption tax/SSC system that mimic a flat tax on labor income is sufficient to diversify revenue away from oil and whether to adopt PITs to address rising income and wealth inequality. Finally, fragile states, who face more political volatility and weaker fiscal institutions, will have to focus on simplicity of tax design and collection to be able to raise revenue from PITs.
Keywords:
Personal income taxes; social security contributions; payroll taxes; fragile and conflict states; Middle East and North Africa; Gulf-Cooperation Council; SSC reform; SSC system; revenue performance; PIT objective; PIT revenue; Personal income tax; Income tax systems; Income; Income and capital gains taxes; Corporate income tax; North Africa; Middle East; East Africa; Global
Cover Analytical Notes
Exploring Multilateral Platforms for Cross-Border Payments
Bank of International Settlements
,
International Monetary Fund
, and
World Bank
This report provides an assessment of whether and how multilateral platforms could bring meaningful improvements to the cross-border payments ecosystem. It was written by the Bank for International Settlements’ Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) in collaboration with the BIS Innovation Hub, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.1 The report analyses the potential costs and benefits of these platforms and how they might alleviate some of the cross-border payment frictions. It also evaluates the risks, barriers and challenges to establishing multilateral platforms and explores two paths for their evolution. The analysis is based on a stocktake, conducted by the CPMI, of existing and potential multilateral platforms as well as bilateral discussions with existing platform operators.
Keywords:
multilateral platform; payment message standard; cross-border payment friction; platform operator; payments programme; Payment systems; Currencies; Public sector; Correspondent banking; Global; Southern Africa; West Africa; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores the main obstacles related to low female labor force participation in Jordan. Lack of access to safe and reliable public transportation can hamper labor market choices for women. Gender-based legal restrictions may also prevent women from participating in the labor market. The analysis concludes that structural variables and regulations are the main drivers of the gender gap in participation and employment outcomes in Jordan. Based on the regression results, there is a statistically significant relationship between the structural variables and regulations and the gap in both participation and employment. The results for Jordan are also compared with the Middle East and North Africa region. It finds that gender disparity in labor market participation in Jordan is not due to access to basic services such as education and health but is rather based on structural and legal impediments. Particularly, structural variables as well as regulations help explain the gap in participation rates between men and women.
Keywords:
B. dissecting GDP growth; tourism growth; tourism sector growth; employment outcome; tourism fluctuation; participation opportunity; business environment indicator; labor market market trend; Women; Total factor productivity; Tourism; Labor productivity; Productivity; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Digitalization and Resilience: Firm-level Evidence During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Nordine Abidi
,
Mehdi El Herradi
, and
Sahra Sakha
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented shock to firms with adverse consequences for existing productive capacities. At the same time, digitalization has increasingly been touted as a key pathway for mitigating economic losses from the pandemic, and we expect firms facing digital constraints to be less resilient to supply shocks. This paper uses firm-level data to investigate whether digitally-enabled firms have been able to mitigate economic losses arising from the pandemic better than digitally-constrained firms in the Middle East and Central Asia region using a difference-in-differences approach. Controlling for demand conditions, we find that digitally-enabled firms faced a lower decline in sales by about 4 percentage points during the pandemic compared to digitally-constrained firms, suggesting that digitalization acted as a hedge during the pandemic. Against this backdrop, our results suggest that policymakers need to close the digital gap and accelerate firms’ digital transformation. This will be essential for economies to bounce back from the pandemic, and build the foundations for future resilience.
Keywords:
COVID-19; digitalization; technology adoption; economic resilience; Middle East and Central Asia; digitally-enabled firm; digitally-constrained firm; firms in the Middle East; firm-level data; digital transformation; Digitalization; Financial inclusion; Foreign corporations; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Middle East; North Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
State-Owned Enterprises in Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia: Size, Costs, and Challenges: Executive Summary
Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo
,
Christine J. Richmond
,
Oluremi Akin Olugbade
,
Gareth Anderson
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Iacovos Ioannou
,
Deeksha Kale
,
Tannous Kass-Hanna
,
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Wei Shi
, and
Joyce Wong
Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.
Keywords:
State-owned enterprises; corporate governance; fiscal risks; Middle East; Central Asia; COVID-19; SOE footprint; government support; SOE definition; SOE mandate; SOE sector; SOE governance; Public enterprises; Public sector; North Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
State-Owned Enterprises in Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia: Size, Costs, and Challenges
Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo
,
Christine J. Richmond
,
Oluremi Akin Olugbade
,
Gareth Anderson
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Iacovos Ioannou
,
Deeksha Kale
,
Tannous Kass-Hanna
,
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Wei Shi
, and
Joyce Wong
Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.
Keywords:
State-owned enterprises; corporate governance; fiscal risks; Middle East; Central Asia; COVID-19; SOE footprint; government support; SOE definition; SOE mandate; SOE sector; SOE governance; Public enterprises; Public sector; North Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
State-Owned Enterprises in Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia: Size, Costs, and Challenges: Executive Summary
Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo
,
Christine J. Richmond
,
Oluremi Akin Olugbade
,
Gareth Anderson
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Iacovos Ioannou
,
Deeksha Kale
,
Tannous Kass-Hanna
,
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Wei Shi
, and
Joyce Wong
Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.
Keywords:
State-owned enterprises; corporate governance; fiscal risks; Middle East; Central Asia; COVID-19; SOE footprint; government support; SOE definition; SOE mandate; SOE sector; SOE governance; Public enterprises; Public sector; North Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.

Keywords:
IMF programs; growth optimism; austerity bias; structural conditionality; debt sustainability; fiscal policy; exchange rate policy; PRGT program; debt operation; IMF support; reviews IMF policy; program objective; Fiscal consolidation; Real effective exchange rates; Structural reforms; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean; Europe