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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Jordan’s Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Building on Jordan’s consistently strong performance under the previous program, the new EFF arrangement will support the authorities’ efforts toward maintaining macro-stability; further building resilience, and accelerating structural reforms to achieve stronger, more inclusive growth and job creation. Sound policymaking and support from international partners have helped Jordan to withstand well a series of shocks over the past few years and to maintain macro-stability, broad-based economic growth, and market access, and strengthen social safety nets. Going forward, supported by the new EFF arrangement, policies are focused on maintaining macro-stability and further building resilience, and accelerating structural reforms to achieve stronger, more inclusive growth and job creation, to tackle high unemployment. Further progress in implementing structural reforms to improve the business environment and attract private investment is crucial to create a dynamic private sector, foster job-rich growth, and achieve the objectives of Jordan’s Economic Modernization Vision.
Keywords:
EFF arrangement; reform agenda; economy well; government entity; Jordan compact; Fiscal stance; Arrears; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Jordan’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. The IMF-supported program remains firmly on track, with key quantitative targets met and strong performance on structural benchmarks, reflecting the authorities’ strong ownership. Despite a challenging global environment, Jordan’s economy is projected to continue to grow this year at 2.6 percent, and inflation has remained relatively low and is declining. The Jordanian authorities have managed to successfully navigate recent external shocks and maintain macro-economic stability in an uncertain and challenging environment. Thanks to the steadfast implementation of prudent fiscal and monetary policies, fiscal consolidation is on track, capital market access has been maintained, and inflation has remained relatively low and is declining, while reserve coverage is strong. Monetary policy has responded quickly to U.S. Federal Reserve policy changes and remains focused on safeguarding the peg and maintaining strong reserve buffers.
Keywords:
government balance; transparency policy; Jordanian dinar; prudent fiscal policy; logistics support; program financing; Arrears; Fiscal stance; Interest payments; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Jordan’s Fifth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Jordan has continued a broad-based recovery amid a challenging external environment, thanks to the authorities’ effective policy response. Financial challenges in the electricity sector are exacerbating fiscal pressures, particularly as food subsidies have increased considerably on the back of high international prices. As agreed in the fourth review, the authorities have eliminated the subsidies on gasoline and diesel. They also met structural benchmarks on introducing goods and services tax place of taxation rules; strengthening the governance of fiscal incentives; improving the competition framework; removing legal impediments to female employment; implementing a foreign direct investment survey; and rolling out e-procurement. The 2022 and 2023 fiscal targets are being relaxed slightly to accommodate higher food-related spending. The authorities remain committed to reducing public debt/gross domestic product to 80 percent by 2027. IMF expects the implications for the program to be manageable, given the authorities’ ownership and commitment to program objectives and Jordan’s continued ability to attract development partner support.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; revenue generation; financing requirement; cabinet adoption of an action plan; fund staff; Arrears; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Digitalization and Resilience: Firm-level Evidence During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Nordine Abidi
,
Mehdi El Herradi
, and
Sahra Sakha
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented shock to firms with adverse consequences for existing productive capacities. At the same time, digitalization has increasingly been touted as a key pathway for mitigating economic losses from the pandemic, and we expect firms facing digital constraints to be less resilient to supply shocks. This paper uses firm-level data to investigate whether digitally-enabled firms have been able to mitigate economic losses arising from the pandemic better than digitally-constrained firms in the Middle East and Central Asia region using a difference-in-differences approach. Controlling for demand conditions, we find that digitally-enabled firms faced a lower decline in sales by about 4 percentage points during the pandemic compared to digitally-constrained firms, suggesting that digitalization acted as a hedge during the pandemic. Against this backdrop, our results suggest that policymakers need to close the digital gap and accelerate firms’ digital transformation. This will be essential for economies to bounce back from the pandemic, and build the foundations for future resilience.
Keywords:
COVID-19; digitalization; technology adoption; economic resilience; Middle East and Central Asia; digitally-enabled firm; digitally-constrained firm; firms in the Middle East; firm-level data; digital transformation; Digitalization; Financial inclusion; Foreign corporations; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Third Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Preventive actions and a robust vaccination campaign mitigated the effects of COVID-19 variants on the economy. A nascent recovery, supported by targeted fiscal and monetary measures, is underway, with real GDP growth expected at 2 percent in 2021, strengthening to 2.7 percent in 2022. However, unemployment is persisting at very high levels, particularly for the youth. Core inflation, at 0.7 percent y-o-y in September, is subdued, despite higher fuel prices, reflecting a slow pass-through, but also weak domestic demand. Reserves are comfortable, and dollarization is declining.
Keywords:
transparency policy; Jordanian authorities; growth strategy; core inflation; policy effort; Jordanian dinar; government of Jordan; vaccination campaign; support private sector competitiveness; Arrears; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Jordan has taken important steps to enhance its fiscal transparency over the past decade. Notably, there is a comprehensive legal framework for the management of public finances. Fiscal reports have become more comprehensive and cover a high proportion of public sector institutions. The frequency of in-year reporting is at an advanced level, as is the timeliness of publication of the government’s annual financial statements. Fiscal statistics are disseminated in accordance with international standards (SDDS). Fiscal forecasts and budgets have become more forward looking and policy oriented with the introduction of a five-year medium-term budget framework and a program classification. As a result of improvements in fiscal transparency practices, in the 2019 Open Budget Survey, Jordan scored above the global average for transparency, and is the only country in the region ranked overall as ‘green’ on this measure. Nevertheless, the FTE provides a more detailed and in-depth analysis with a broader focus.
Keywords:
General government finance bulletin; equity ratio; General government debt; IMF mission; Jordan FTC rating; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Fiscal reporting; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
State-Owned Enterprises in Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia: Size, Costs, and Challenges
Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo
,
Christine J. Richmond
,
Oluremi Akin Olugbade
,
Gareth Anderson
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Iacovos Ioannou
,
Deeksha Kale
,
Tannous Kass-Hanna
,
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Wei Shi
, and
Joyce Wong
Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.
Keywords:
State-owned enterprises; corporate governance; fiscal risks; Middle East; Central Asia; COVID-19; SOE footprint; government support; SOE definition; SOE mandate; SOE sector; SOE governance; Public enterprises; Public sector; North Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
State-Owned Enterprises in Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia: Size, Costs, and Challenges: Executive Summary
Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo
,
Christine J. Richmond
,
Oluremi Akin Olugbade
,
Gareth Anderson
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Iacovos Ioannou
,
Deeksha Kale
,
Tannous Kass-Hanna
,
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Wei Shi
, and
Joyce Wong
Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.
Keywords:
State-owned enterprises; corporate governance; fiscal risks; Middle East; Central Asia; COVID-19; SOE footprint; government support; SOE definition; SOE mandate; SOE sector; SOE governance; Public enterprises; Public sector; North Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
State-Owned Enterprises in Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia: Size, Costs, and Challenges: Executive Summary
Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo
,
Christine J. Richmond
,
Oluremi Akin Olugbade
,
Gareth Anderson
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Iacovos Ioannou
,
Deeksha Kale
,
Tannous Kass-Hanna
,
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Wei Shi
, and
Joyce Wong
Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.
Keywords:
State-owned enterprises; corporate governance; fiscal risks; Middle East; Central Asia; COVID-19; SOE footprint; government support; SOE definition; SOE mandate; SOE sector; SOE governance; Public enterprises; Public sector; North Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.

Keywords:
IMF programs; growth optimism; austerity bias; structural conditionality; debt sustainability; fiscal policy; exchange rate policy; PRGT program; debt operation; IMF support; reviews IMF policy; program objective; Fiscal consolidation; Real effective exchange rates; Structural reforms; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean; Europe