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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: 2022 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Augmentation and Rephasing of Access, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Jordan’s 2022 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Request for Augmentation and Rephasing of Access, and Modification of Performance Criteria. Jordan's EFF program remains firmly on track. The authorities have maintained macroeconomic stability and market access, while protecting the most vulnerable, and implementing key structural reforms, especially in the area of public finances. The IMF remains committed to supporting Jordan, including by augmenting access under the EFF to help address higher financing needs from higher international commodity prices and tightened global financial conditions. Donor support is critical to enable Jordan to cope with these global economic headwinds, while hosting 1.3 million Syrian refugees.
Keywords:
labor participation rates; staff appraisal; JD deposit; customs authorities; Jordanian dinar; Fiscal stance; Arrears; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary and Financial Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Jordan discusses that financial system of Jordan is dominated by other depository corporations (ODC), which constitute around 63 percent of the financial system’s assets. The technical assistance mission delivered objectives and agreed with the authorities on an action plan to improve the country’s monetary statistics. Some progress has been made in the Central Bank trial accounts regarding the sectorization and classification of the financial instruments. The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has made substantive progress in improving human resource skills among staff. The accounting principles are found to be broadly in line with the methodology of the IMF with some departures related to market valuation. The accounting and valuation methodology implemented by the ODCs in Jordan are broadly in line with the recommended compilation practices identified in the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide. Considering the change in the source data since 2014, the mission re-mapped the source data, using data from the aggregated balance sheet of the banking sector and the accompanying schedules through a bridge table. The mission built a time series for all the required data and created a tool linking the data to the Standardized report forms. The tool provides CBJ staff with a simpler method for data compilation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBJ source data; CBJ trial; CBJ supervision; CBJ staff; CBJ datum; Financial statements; Business enterprises; Commercial banks; Financial statistics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Jordan has made significant progress since the 2014 Article IV Consultation but pressing challenges remain. The gradual pick-up in growth from 2010 to 2014 ended in 2015, with real GDP growth decelerating from 2.4 percent in 2015 to 2 percent in 2016. Labor market conditions have remained challenging, particularly for youth and women, with the unemployment rate increasing to 15.8 percent in the second half of 2016. Despite considerable progress and recent improvements, the outlook remains challenging. Real GDP growth is projected to reach 2.3 percent in 2017, while inflation is expected to stabilize at about 2.5 percent by year-end.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deposit dollarization; electricity tariff; IMF director; central bank of Jordan; staff appraisal; Oil prices; Tariffs; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy
Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes
and
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.
Keywords:
WP; Tight oil; shale oil; fracking revolution; oil price decline; oil supply; global macroeconometric modeling; international business cycle; oil exporter; oil-price shock; equity price; oil importer; error correction term; oil price data; oil-price environment; standard deviation; MENA oil importer; commodity exporter; price of oil; oil price environment; Oil prices; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Oil production; Vector autoregression; Global; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles
Mr. Paul Cashin
,
Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes
, and
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.
Keywords:
WP; global economy; Global VAR (GVAR); interconnectedness; global macroeconomic modeling; impulse responses; macroeconomic shocks; international business cycle; oil exporter; trade weight; GVAR model; MENA region; GCC country; Oil; Oil prices; Vector autoregression; Real effective exchange rates; Oil production; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Constraints on Trade in the MENA region
Hirut Wolde
and
Ms. Rina Bhattacharya
In this paper we estimate gravity models to see whether trade volumes of countries in the MENA region are significantly lower than what would be expected given their economic, cultural and geographical characteristics. Our empirical results show that the variables used in standard gravity models cannot explain a significant part of MENA's trade performance, particularly on exports. We then go on to 'augment' the standard gravity model with relevant variables from the World Bank's Business Enterprise surveys. Our results further show that these variables, and in particular transport constraints and inefficiencies in customs clearance processes, are important in explaining the MENA region's underperformance in trade.
Keywords:
WP; trade; Mena; customs; business
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Spillover Effects of the Global Crisison Economic Activity in Mena Emerging Market Countries: An Analysis Using the Financial Stress Index
Mr. Kenji Moriyama
The estimated spillover of the global crisis to emerging market (EM) economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) indicates that nearly two-thirds of the increased financial stress in MENA EM countries after the Lehman shock is attributable to direct or indirect spillovers of financial stress in advanced economies. Moreover, the estimated models suggest that the increased financial stress and slowdown in economic activity in advanced economies can explain about half of the drop in real GDP growth in MENA EM countries after the Lehman shock.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP growth; economic activity; Spillover; financial stress; emerging market; GCC country; growth projection; advanced economy; emerging market country; countries in the Middle East and North Africa; Financial soundness indicators; Estimation techniques; Spillovers; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: 2009 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
International Monetary Fund
This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that Jordan’s money and financial markets have weakened since mid-2008. Bank deposits edged down slightly in October but subsequently recovered, with the share of dinar deposits continuing to increase. Executive Directors have noted that sound macroeconomic management has enhanced Jordan’s resilience to the global crisis. Directors have also emphasized that, in light of the economy’s close ties with the region and reliance on external financing, near-term policies should remain focused on guarding against vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; GDP; net; headline inflation; Jordanian dinar; money market; bank performance; weakening economy; exchange rate; insurance market; balance of payments; Government finance statistics; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances: An Automatic Output Stabilizer?
Ms. Dalia S Hakura
,
Mr. Ralph Chami
, and
Mr. Peter J Montiel
Remittance flows appear to be falling worldwide for the first time in decades as a result of the ongoing financial turmoil. It is suspected that the drop in remittance income into developing and emerging markets will have a destabilizing effect on these economies. The paper estimates the impact of remittances on output stability for countries that are dependent on these income flows. Using a sample of 70 countries, including 16 advanced economies and 54 developing countries, we find robust evidence that remittances have a negative effect on output growth volatility of recipient countries. This result supports the notion that remittance flows are a stabilizing influence on output. Thus, the fall in remittances precipitated by the ongoing global financial crisis could potentially increase output variability in recipient countries. This would present a hard challenge for governments in those countries already suffering from the crisis: they must resort to an already stressed and limited set of policy instruments, such as fiscal policy, to counter the resulting adverse economic and social impacts of lower remittances.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; remittance flow; GDP; remittance inflow
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: 2008 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; and Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion
International Monetary Fund
Jordan’s 2008 Article IV Consultation discusses the appropriate policy response to mounting fiscal and external vulnerabilities and higher inflation. Sharply higher world fuel and food prices led to a marked widening of the fiscal and external current account deficits and, more recently, a jump in inflation. Economic prospects remain broadly favorable, though the public and external sector imbalances imply increased challenges to sustaining strong macroeconomic performance. Structural reforms are proceeding, aimed at reducing distortions and enhancing the private sector’s growth prospects.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; FDI inflow; Jordan; assessment mission; Jordanian dinar; interest differential; core inflation; data ROSC update mission; current account adjustment; foreign direct investment survey; portfolio inflow; financing datum; oil price development; Government finance statistics; Middle East