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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper investigates the macroeconomic impact of the Syria crisis on Jordan. It is indicated that the crisis: (1) had an overall negative impact on measured output growth—although anecdotal evidence suggests possibly a positive impact on output in the informal sector; (2) contributed to inflationary pressures, particularly on rents; and (3) strained labor markets, mostly in the informal sector as refugees compete with locals for jobs. Although the crisis has put a strain on the external trade balance, the overall impact on the current account is not clear.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF staff estimate; labor market; Syria crisis; labor market outcome; policy setting; Syria conflict; Tariffs; Employment; Electricity; Labor markets; Unemployment rate; Europe; Middle East; East Asia; North Africa; East Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
Middle East and North Africa - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges - Deauville Partnership Ministerial Meeting
International Monetary Fund
Historic transitions in the Arab Spring countries are coming under increasing strain frommacroeconomic pressures and unmet social demands. Domestic uncertainty over the countries' future course, compounded by the global slowdown and rising oil prices, took a toll on growth during 2011. The outlook for 2012 and 2013 is equally challenging. The protracted political transition, lower global growth, and euro zone weakness are likely to result in a slow and drawn-out economic recovery, with unemployment at best stabilizing at high levels. Maintaining macroeconomic stability in this environment will be challenging, not least since policy buffers were reduced during 2011. Indeed, gross external and fiscal financing needs of MENA oilimporters are projected at about $93 and $103 billion, respectively, in 2012-13. With capital markets expected to provide only a small part of these funds, official financial support will be essential to allow countries to continue on their path toward economic transformation. But at the same time, countries need to make tangible progress on that path. This requires bold reform and modernization agendas that command broad consensus and are embedded in a sustainable medium-term macroeconomic policy framework to build confidence, anchor expectations, and pave the way for sustained and inclusive growth.
Keywords:
PP; job creation; economic recovery; labor market; central bank; economic activity; exchange rate; GDP growth; Government debt management; Current account deficits; Budget planning and preparation; Unemployment; Global; Europe; Middle East
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The Arab Spring holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region. At the same time, the region is witnessing uncertainty and economic pressures from domestic and external sources, which will likely be exacerbated by the recent worsening of the global economy. The main challenge in the short term will be to manage expectations while maintaining economic stability. To that end, better-targeted subsidies and transfers will help free up resources for investment in infrastructure, education, and health. Policies aimed at fostering inclusive growth will also help cement the longer-term benefits of the ongoing changes in the region. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the economic outlook is broadly positive. Exports and remittances--key growth drivers in 2010--are continuing to grow solidly, helping the recovery gain firm momentum. At the same time, uncertainties over the robustness of the global recovery constitute a downside risk to the growth outlook. Key challenges facing the region over the medium term are to create jobs and foster high and inclusive growth.

Keywords:
REO; oil importer; IMF staff calculation; country; importer; oil exporter; MENAP country; CCA country; Oil; Inflation; Unemployment; Oil prices; Fuel prices; Global; Europe; Maghreb; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; North Africa; GCC country; commodity metals price; Remittances