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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy
Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes
and
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.
Keywords:
WP; Tight oil; shale oil; fracking revolution; oil price decline; oil supply; global macroeconometric modeling; international business cycle; oil exporter; oil-price shock; equity price; oil importer; error correction term; oil price data; oil-price environment; standard deviation; MENA oil importer; commodity exporter; price of oil; oil price environment; Oil prices; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Oil production; Vector autoregression; Global; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Policy in MENA Countries: Looking Back and Forward
Mario Mansour
This paper reviews trends in taxation and revenue in MENA countries over 1990-2012, with a focus on non-resource taxes. On average, non-resource revenues declined slightly, while resource revenues soared. Country experiences vary: rates of main taxes and their revenues tend to be higher in the Magreb than in the Mashreq, except for the value-added tax, where lower rates are associated with equal or higher revenue; most oil producers raise little tax revenues—generally less than 5 percent of GDP—and most have reduced them since the late 1990s. But there are similarities: unlike common experience around the world, income taxes (not indirect taxes) have partially compensated for lost revenue from trade liberalization; revenues from indirect taxes have remained stable; personal income taxes have played an unimportant role as a revenue tool; and fees and stamp duties are significant revenue sources. Looking forward, tax reform challenges will also vary across countries: the Maghreb needs to focus on efficiency-enhancing reforms, especially in capital income and consumption taxes; the Mashreq have some room to increase revenue; and, there are ample opportunities to improve equity and reduce complexity of tax systems in all countries. Finally, the recent decline in oil prices and revenues is a reminder that even resource-rich GCC countries need to lay the basis of a tax system for the future.
Keywords:
WP; excise tax; tax system; resource country; income tax; tax administration; tax revenues; resource revenues; tax reform; MENA; personal income; trade tax; building tax institution; tax competition; tax law; Corporate income tax; Tax incentives; Value-added tax; Taxes on trade; Maghreb
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, May 2007, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, May 2007, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Strong economic performance across the Middle East and Central Asia is examined against the background of high prices for energy and other commodities. Common economic trends are presented, while prospects and policies are reviewed for the coming year in light of the global economic environment. This latest REO includes boxes treating specific regional topics, such as financial sector reforms and integration in Maghreb countries; economic developments in oil-exporting countries in response to changes in petroleum prices; and the growth boom in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Keywords:
REO; country; price; government; quote; oil price; Brent crude; commodity price; debt ratio; nominal exchange rate; emerging market country; Oil prices; Oil; Inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; gas and mining taxes; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Maghreb
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Debt and Fiscal Vulnerability in the Middle East
Mr. Ludvig Söderling
,
Mrs. Hanan Morsy
,
Mr. Martin Petri
,
Mr. Martin Hommes
,
Ms. Manal Fouad
, and
Wojciech Maliszewski
Public debt in the Middle East increased during the mid-1990s mainly because of fiscal expansions. It decreased in recent years, thanks to high oil revenue, economic growth, some primary non-oil fiscal adjustment, and debt relief. While countries in the Middle East appear to have adequately reacted to high indebtedness in the past, public debt levels remain uncomfortably high in many, particularly non-oil producing countries and middle income oil producers. Non-oil countries adjust mainly by increasing revenues, whereas oil countries adjust expenditure. For non-oil producing countries, substantial fiscal adjustment would be needed to bring debt down to below 50 percent of GDP. Oil producers as a group appear to follow sustainable, though procyclical, fiscal policies. Middle-income (but not high-income) oil producing countries would need to adjust somewhat to bring their policies in line with the permanent oil income benchmark.
Keywords:
WP; revenue; GDP; debt ratio; balance
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development March 2003
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; exchange rate; government; price
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2003
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper analyzes why the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has lagged in growth and globalization. Despite attempts to spur recovery and initiate structural reforms, many countries in the region remain on a slow growth path, effectively sidelined from globalization and the benefits of closer economic integration with the rest of the world. The benefits from oil failed to generate a sustained growth dynamic or bring about greater regional economic integration. The paper highlights that the slowdown in economic reforms is a key factor for the economic depression in the MENA region.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; exchange rate; government; price; MENA country; State company; cooperation scheme; oil-producing country; MENA region; monetary policy coordination; Exchange rate arrangements; Oil; Real exchange rates; gas and mining taxes; Exchange rates; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Global; North America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Liberalization and Tax Reform in the Southern Mediterranean Region
Mr. George T. Abed
The European Union’s Association Agreements with several countries in the Southern Mediterranean Region (SMR) aim to promote deeper economic integration between the SMR and the EU by establishing a free trade area in twelve years. Because a large share of the SMR countries’ total imports comes from the EU, the removal of import tariffs could reduce budgetary revenue by the equivalent of 1 percent to 4 percent of individual countries’ GDP. This paper proposes tax and tariff reforms that would help generate the needed compensatory revenue and, more important in the long run, reduce the distortionary effects of the tax and tariff systems and underpin higher rates of sustainable growth.
Keywords:
WP; tax; country; tariff; SMR; SMR country; Trade Liberalization; Tariff Reform; Tax Reform; tax receipt; trade tax; personal income; EU imports; import duty; tariff liberalization; reforming country; tariff revenue; SMR revenue structure; tariff system; Tariffs; Imports; Taxes on trade; Consumption taxes; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Global