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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Bjoern Rother
,
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
,
Davide Lombardo
,
Risto Herrala
,
Ms. Priscilla Toffano
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
, and
Ms. Karina Manasseh
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Keywords:
SDN; conflict country; refugee crisis; central bank; economic activity; country authorities; Middle East and North Africa; conflicts; refugees; macroeconomic policy; economic spillovers; post-conflict reconstruction; international community; MENA region; MENA country; physical capital; financial support; IMF staff calculation; growth potential; MENA conflict country; Labor markets; Infrastructure; Inflation; Middle East; North Africa; Global; East Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues Paper focuses on economic condition, energy subsidies, and oil prices in Jordan. Energy price subsidies pose a serious fiscal risk in the present context of increasing and volatile international prices. The macroeconomic situation in Jordan is closely tied to that of other countries in the Middle East. From a policy perspective, macroeconomic and structural policies in Jordan should be conducted in such a way that the vulnerability of the country to sudden stops or reversals of external income flows is reduced.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Jordan; policy stance; investment; energy price subsidy; oil price booms; IMF staff estimate; physical capital accumulation; Jordan's ranking; Public investment spending; Capital accumulation; Energy subsidies; Reserve positions; Energy pricing; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central Asia; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Constraints on Trade in the MENA region
Hirut Wolde
and
Ms. Rina Bhattacharya
In this paper we estimate gravity models to see whether trade volumes of countries in the MENA region are significantly lower than what would be expected given their economic, cultural and geographical characteristics. Our empirical results show that the variables used in standard gravity models cannot explain a significant part of MENA's trade performance, particularly on exports. We then go on to 'augment' the standard gravity model with relevant variables from the World Bank's Business Enterprise surveys. Our results further show that these variables, and in particular transport constraints and inefficiencies in customs clearance processes, are important in explaining the MENA region's underperformance in trade.
Keywords:
WP; trade; Mena; customs; business
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Affordable Mortgages in Improving Living Standards and Stimulating Growth: A Survey of Selected Mena Countries
Mr. Frank E. Nothaft
and
Mr. S. Nuri Erbas
This paper argues that making affordable home mortgage loans available to a large cross section of the population will serve both the redistributive and growth-enhancing objectives of poverty reduction policies. The current state of housing and mortgage markets in selected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia) is examined. The study evaluates Turkey and Mexico as middle-income comparator countries. Historical experience of the United States is also described. Simulations based on U.S. parameters provide some guide to the effects on economic growth of alleviating housing shortages by improving access to mortgage financing.
Keywords:
WP; housing construction; term housing finance facility; mortgage lending; commercial bank; down payment; mortgage finance market; housing supply; mortgage finance availability; growth; poverty; secondary mortgage market; construction initiative; production program; mortgage financing; insolvent public sector housing institution; housing demand; government housing policy; Housing; Mortgages; Housing prices; Loans; Income; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Maghreb
Cover Equity and Efficiency in the Reform of Price Subsidies
Equity and Efficiency in the Reform of Price Subsidies
A Guide for Policymakers
Mr. Juan P Cordoba
,
Mr. Robert Gillingham
,
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
,
Mr. Ali M. Mansoor
,
Mr. Christian Schiller
, and
Marijn Verhoeven

Abstract

This text provides guidance to policymakers on how to design and implement sound price-subsidy reforms. It draws on the experience of price-subsidy reform in 28 countries. The authors discuss economic and political considerations and make several recommendations concerning the speed of reform and social protection mechanisms. They discuss how the social impact of reform can be limited by establishing cost-effective and well-targeted temporary social protection mechanisms, and how governments can reduce the risk of political disruption by distributing the initial burden of reform fairly and by clearly explaining the costs and benefits to the public.

Keywords:
M&G; price-subsidy reform; price; subsidy; price subsidy; compensation scheme; price-subsidy policy; price change; reform measure; household income; Income; Inflation; Government subsidies; Social assistance spending; Household consumption; Middle East; Africa; East Asia; North Africa; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere; Central Asia; Europe; Global; budgetary saving; Housing; Currencies
Cover IMF Working Papers
Political Economy Aspects of Trade and Financial Liberalization: Implications for Sequencing
Ms. Rina Bhattacharya
This paper integrates a two-period overlapping generations model with a standard two-sector Hecksher-Ohlin trade model and analyzes the impact of uncertainty on domestic investment in the exportable and importable sectors, the political economy linkages between trade and financial liberalization, and the implications for sequencing. Under certain assumptions financial liberalization leads to a movement of resources in the opposite direction to that implied by trade liberalization, thus defeating one of the objectives of tariff reform. When political economy linkages are taken into account, however, the indirect effects of financial liberalization may offset the direct effects and encourage a movement of resources in the desired direction.
Keywords:
WP; financial market; Investment; Uncertainity; Political Economy; Financial Liberalization; Trade Liberalization; financial market reform; demand schedule; household saving; marginal revenue; market equilibrium; transition economy; interest rate rL; Tariffs; Domestic savings; Deposit rates
Cover The Economy of West Bank and Gaza
The Economy of West Bank and Gaza
Recent Experience, Prospects, and Challenges to Private Sector Development
Mr. Steven A Barnett
,
Dale Chua
,
Ms. Nur Calika
,
Mr. Oussama Kanaan
, and
Milan Zavadjil

Abstract

The economy of the West Bank and Gaza Strip faces a difficult external environment in 1997. This paper, by Steven Barnett, Nur Calika, Dale Chua, Oussama Kanaan, and Milan Zavadijil, presents an assessment of the recent experience of the Palestinian economy and examines prospects for 1998 and beyond.

Keywords:
BOOK; trade; investment; credit rationing; lending; trade independence
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth, Investment, and Savings in the Arab Economies
Amer Bisat
Sustaining a high rate of economic growth is the major policy issue facing the Arab economies. A detailed analysis of growth, investment, and savings for the period 1971-96, including through a growth accounting exercise, shows that increasing long-run growth requires improvements in both investment and domestic savings. In the past, the Arab region’s growth was overly reliant on volatile external sources of funding, and total factor productivity growth was too low. The paper discusses the policy priorities to overcome the legacy of poor growth.
Keywords:
WP; TFP growth; capital share; TFP measure; savings-investment balance; investment performance; Growth; Investment; Savings; Growth Accounting; Arab; Middle East and North Africa; sound investment decision; private sector investment; Total factor productivity; Domestic savings; East Asia
Cover Jordan
Jordan
Strategy for Adjustment and Growth
Ahsan S. Mansur
and
Mr. Edouard Maciejewski

Abstract

The paper analyzes the major progress Jordan has made in recent years in macroeconomic stabilization and the transformation of its economic structure. It discusses recent economic developments, macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms and examines the factors underpinning growth, including structural reforms in key areas such as public finance, the financial system, the trade and exchange regime, Jordan's external debt-management strategy, and the dynamics of the public debt and its sustainability.

Keywords:
OP; Jordan; lending program; debt service; factors underpinning growth; external debt-management strategy; financing constraint; Jordan dinar; Commercial banks; Fiscal stance; Private investment; Tariffs; Eastern Europe; Middle East
Cover Privatization and Structural Adjustment in the Arab Countries
Privatization and Structural Adjustment in the Arab Countries
Papers Presented at a Seminar held in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, December 5-7, 1988

Abstract

This seminar volume, edited by Said El-Naggar, examines the challenge that Arab countries with large public sectors face in placing the privatization process within the wider context of structural change.

Keywords:
BOOK; enterprise; public enterprise; government; revenue from tax; privatization process; privatization work; GCC state; privatization movement; Privatization; Public sector; Public enterprises; Stock markets; Private investment; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; East Asia; Competition; Caribbean