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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: 2020 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Releases; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for Jordan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Jordan’s 2020 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (ECF). Jordan’s IMF-supported economic reform program is anchored on structural reforms designed to spur growth by creating jobs—especially for women and young people—and reduce poverty. The Jordanian economy has continued facing significant challenges. Macroeconomic stability and external buffers have been preserved, but fiscal vulnerabilities remain. Structural reforms and continued fiscal consolidation efforts are critical to lift growth, reduce unemployment and bring debt on a downward path. Continued support from donors, particularly through concessional loans and budget grants, will be critical to help Jordan cope with humanitarian and economic needs. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak poses significant risks to the program implementation. The authorities have implemented measures to help contain the impact of the pandemic; however, adjustments to the program modalities might be necessary considering the rapidly changing circumstances. Donor support through budget grants and concessional financing will be critical to help Jordan cope with the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak and the Syrian refugee crisis and to support program objectives.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fiscal consolidation effort; emergency outlay; economic reform program; COVID; authority; Jordanian authorities; program objective; job creation; Electricity; Arrears; Global; Tariffs
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses the Syrian Refugee Crisis (SRC) and conflicts in Syria and Iraq have weighed on investor sentiment, tourism, and exports but the influx of Syrians is likely to have increased aggregate demand. Labor market conditions deteriorated after the massive influx of refugees and nontradable prices accelerated. The balance of payment suffered pressures on the non-oil current account, owing to lower exports of goods and services and higher imports. The SRC has increased the direct fiscal costs persistently by above one percent of GDP, which could double after counting for quality and capital deterioration. The negative impact is decreasing as the influx of Syrian refugees slowed and the stock pushed up aggregate demand. The influx of more than 10 percent of Jordan’s original population may have certainly increased consumption, particularly, over time as the incomers settled and the likelihood of returning to their home country diminishes. Unemployment grew the most in governorates that host most of the refugees.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Jordan; cost; price; GDP; tax; private sector institution; oil price; SSIF asset portfolio; resource restriction; IMF commodity price; Payroll tax; Financial inclusion; Employment; Labor markets; Tariffs; Global; Middle East; Central Asia; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Jordan has made significant progress since the 2014 Article IV Consultation but pressing challenges remain. The gradual pick-up in growth from 2010 to 2014 ended in 2015, with real GDP growth decelerating from 2.4 percent in 2015 to 2 percent in 2016. Labor market conditions have remained challenging, particularly for youth and women, with the unemployment rate increasing to 15.8 percent in the second half of 2016. Despite considerable progress and recent improvements, the outlook remains challenging. Real GDP growth is projected to reach 2.3 percent in 2017, while inflation is expected to stabilize at about 2.5 percent by year-end.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deposit dollarization; electricity tariff; IMF director; central bank of Jordan; staff appraisal; Oil prices; Tariffs; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
New Energy Sources for Jordan: Macroeconomic Impact and Policy Considerations
Mr. Andrea Gamba
Jordan’s initiatives to reduce its energy dependency could have substantial macroeconomic implications, but will crucially depend on the level of international oil prices in the next decade. Significant uncertainties remain regarding the feasibility of the initiatives and their potential fiscal costs, including from contingent liabilities, could be very large. Given the lead time required for such major investments, work should start now on: (i) conducting comprehensive cost-benefits analysis of these projects; (ii) addressing the challenges arising from the taxation of natural resources; and (iii) designing a fiscal framework to anchor fiscal policies if revenue from these energy projects materializes.
Keywords:
WP; authority; cost; Jordan; monopoly power; energy strategy; energy; Middle East; fiscal policy; import bill; NEPCO cost recovery; import savings; maintenance cost; fuel mix; Oil prices; Oil; Imports; Renewable energy; Tariffs
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper investigates the macroeconomic impact of the Syria crisis on Jordan. It is indicated that the crisis: (1) had an overall negative impact on measured output growth—although anecdotal evidence suggests possibly a positive impact on output in the informal sector; (2) contributed to inflationary pressures, particularly on rents; and (3) strained labor markets, mostly in the informal sector as refugees compete with locals for jobs. Although the crisis has put a strain on the external trade balance, the overall impact on the current account is not clear.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF staff estimate; labor market; Syria crisis; labor market outcome; policy setting; Syria conflict; Tariffs; Employment; Electricity; Labor markets; Unemployment rate; Europe; Middle East; East Asia; North Africa; East Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing of Access—Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Fiscal consolidation, additional reserve buildup, and higher growth are key program objectives for the Jordanian authorities. Despite the socially difficult elimination of the fuel subsidy, program performance was mixed. Initiatives to strengthen banking supervision and develop capital markets are important. The program addresses economic imbalances and safeguards social stability. Executive Directors are satisfied with the action taken to rebuild reserves through an increase in interest rates and by attracting donor funds, as well as domestic dollar-denominated financing. The government is committed to working on steps to boost revenue.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; electricity company; executive board's discussion; government; strategy; support; central government deficit; energy import price; core inflation; Energy subsidies; Tariffs; Capital spending; Arrears; Global; Europe; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Request for a Stand-By Arrangement—Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Request for Modification of Performance Criteria; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Jordan’s external vulnerabilities, arising mainly from the energy sector, increased during the last decade. Aided by exceptionally large grants, fiscal policy accommodated the social impact of these shocks. Concerns about social tensions at the beginning of the year put on hold the needed fiscal consolidation. At the same time, balance of payments pressures intensified. The authorities’ program is designed to correct the fiscal and external imbalances and support the exchange rate peg. Structural policies will focus on supporting growth and employment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; NIR PC; debt service; NIR calculation; Jordan; September; NIR of the CBJ; revenue loss; modification of the performance criteria; Fuel prices; Oil prices; Tariffs; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Food and Fuel Prices - Recent Developments, Macroeconomic Impact, and Policy Responses
International Monetary Fund
This report provides a first broad assessment of the impact of the surge in food and fuel prices on the balance of payments, budgets, prices, and poverty of a large sample of countries. It reviews countries’ macroeconomic policy responses to date and also discusses Fund advice for managing the price increases. Policies should (i) ensure that food and finance reaches the most affected countries as quickly as possible, (ii) include targeted and scaled-up social measures, and (iii) avoid high costs in terms of macroeconomic instability or loss in future agricultural production. Collaborating with international partners, the Fund also stands ready to provide balance of payments assistance. As the paper presents an initial assessment of a still-evolving situation, the somewhat tentative nature of the analysis should be borne in mind.
Keywords:
PP; fuel price; price increase; food price; U.S. dollar; oil price; monetary policy; Inflation; Food prices; Fuel prices; Oil prices; Tariffs; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Political Economy Aspects of Trade and Financial Liberalization: Implications for Sequencing
Ms. Rina Bhattacharya
This paper integrates a two-period overlapping generations model with a standard two-sector Hecksher-Ohlin trade model and analyzes the impact of uncertainty on domestic investment in the exportable and importable sectors, the political economy linkages between trade and financial liberalization, and the implications for sequencing. Under certain assumptions financial liberalization leads to a movement of resources in the opposite direction to that implied by trade liberalization, thus defeating one of the objectives of tariff reform. When political economy linkages are taken into account, however, the indirect effects of financial liberalization may offset the direct effects and encourage a movement of resources in the desired direction.
Keywords:
WP; financial market; Investment; Uncertainity; Political Economy; Financial Liberalization; Trade Liberalization; financial market reform; demand schedule; household saving; marginal revenue; market equilibrium; transition economy; interest rate rL; Tariffs; Domestic savings; Deposit rates
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of European Union Assocation Agreements on Mediterranean Countries
Mr. Henri C. Ghesquière
By establishing free trade for industrial products in 12 years, the European Union’s Association Agreements with countries in the Mediterranean region seek to promote accelerated economic growth. This paper reviews the literature and evaluates the economic benefits and costs for Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan. It concludes that the benefits could be substantial, but only if accompanied by deep supplementary reforms, including extending trade liberalization to services and agriculture and on a multilateral basis, improving the environment for foreign direct investment, ensuring an adequate fiscal and exchange rate policy response, and strengthening European Union assistance.
Keywords:
WP; SEM country; trade diversion; free trade; trade creation; EU agreement; SEM government; European Union; Trade liberalization; Mediterranean countries; EU company; EU exporter; economic reform; Eastern Mediterranean country; EU imports; EU consumer; Exports; Tariffs; Imports; Trade agreements; Europe; Eastern Europe