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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Middle East Transitions: A Long, Hard Road
Shahid Yusuf
Since the onset of the Arab Spring, economic uncertainty in Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen (Arab Countries in Transition, ACTs) has slowed already sluggish growth; worsened unemployment, particularly of youth; undermined business confidence, affected tourist arrivals, and depressed domestic and foreign direct investment. Furthermore, political and social tensions have constrained reform efforts. Assessing policy options as presented in the voluminous literature on the Arab Spring and based on cross-country experience, this paper concludes that sustainable and inclusive growth calls for a two pronged approach: short term measures that revive growth momentum and partially allay popular concerns; complemented with efforts to adjust the public’s expectations and prepare the ground for structural reforms that will deliver the desired longer tem performance.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; private sector; export-led growth; Mena country; regime change; unemployment rate; economic transition; growth; youth unemployment; institutions; education; social safety nets; SMEs; SEZs; transaction costs; enterprise reform; anchor firm; density entry rate; on-the-job training; free trade zone; natural resource; Exports; Employment; Public sector; Manufacturing; East Asia; Global; Eastern Europe; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Constraints on Trade in the MENA region
Hirut Wolde
and
Ms. Rina Bhattacharya
In this paper we estimate gravity models to see whether trade volumes of countries in the MENA region are significantly lower than what would be expected given their economic, cultural and geographical characteristics. Our empirical results show that the variables used in standard gravity models cannot explain a significant part of MENA's trade performance, particularly on exports. We then go on to 'augment' the standard gravity model with relevant variables from the World Bank's Business Enterprise surveys. Our results further show that these variables, and in particular transport constraints and inefficiencies in customs clearance processes, are important in explaining the MENA region's underperformance in trade.
Keywords:
WP; trade; Mena; customs; business
Cover IMF Working Papers
Altruism and Workers’ Remittances: Evidence from Selected Countries in the Middle East and Central Asia
Mr. Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe
Workers' remittances have been playing an increasingly important role in the balance of payments of many countries and can significantly contribute to the strength of their external positions. Assessing the likely stability of remittance flows could be a valuable input to the analysis of their external vulnerabilities. This paper argues that "altruism," as a motive to send money home, would contribute to the stability of these flows. Using a simple framework that relates workers' remittances to agricultural GDP, which is used as an indicator of economic "hardship" in the home country, evidence suggests that altruism could have played an important role in the flow of remittances to Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia in recent years.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; remittance flow; money; exchange rate; money home
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is the Middle East and North Africa Region Achieving Its Trade Potential?
Mr. Ludvig Söderling
This paper analyzes export performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) using a gravity model applied to panel data. It addresses two questions: (i) are there significant unexploited export markets for the MENA region?; and (ii) have integration efforts with the EU since the mid-1990s yielded positive results? The results suggest that several MENA countries are substantially underexploiting the United States as an export market. Moreover, the impact of integration efforts with the European Union has been moderate overall but significant in individual cases.
Keywords:
WP; trade potential
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix on Jordan underlies stabilization and structural transformation of the economy. Current fiscal policy appears to be broadly sustainable and should be sufficient to allow for the continued fall in the debt burden, absent large external macroeconomic shocks. Over the past decade, Jordan has made commendable progress in replacing an informal family-based social safety system with well-defined and well-targeted social protection institutions. The government will need to remain committed to periodic increases of fuel prices to close the gap between domestic and international petroleum product prices.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; deficit; debt ratio; GDP Jordan; Jordan; debt management strategy; U.S. dollar; debt burden; Jordanian dinar; Jordan's economy; developing country; Debt burden; Exports; Middle East; Global; Europe; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Staff Report for the 2004 Article IV Consultation, Second Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Waiver of Applicability
International Monetary Fund
The staff report for the 2004 Article IV Consultation on Jordan highlights economic developments and policies. General sales tax collections increased strongly boosted by high import growth and improved revenue administration. The government has embarked on a substantial improvement of the education system, with support from an education sector reform loan from the World Bank. The integration of the sales and income tax departments into a unified revenue department will also contribute by strengthening tax collections and enforcement.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; surplus; staff appraisal; privatization program; income tax tax collection; parliament; privatization proceeds; banking sector in Jordan; Monetary base; Government debt management
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exchange Rate Regime Considerations for Jordan and Lebanon
Ms. Rina Bhattacharya
This paper addresses the issue of the appropriate exchange rate regimes for Jordan and Lebanon in the context of the literature on optimum currency areas and the arguments concerning the use of the exchange rate as a nominal anchor for the economy. It presents some empirical results on the nature of output shocks in Jordan and Lebanon in the recent past, on the price sensitivity of exports from Jordan, and on currency and asset substitution in both countries. It does not directly address the issue of whether the current exchange rate in either country is overvalued or not, nor does it discuss the issue of an appropriate exit strategy from the current peg.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; Jordan; Lebanon; exchange rate regime; optimum currency area; nominal anchor; money demand demand shock; trading partner country; rate of return; Lebanese pound; exchange rate peg; case of Jordan; exchange rate instrument; exchange rate depreciation; Jordanian dinar; money demand disturbance; Exchange rate arrangements; Exchange rate flexibility; Conventional peg; Exports; Exchange rates; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of European Union Assocation Agreements on Mediterranean Countries
Mr. Henri C. Ghesquière
By establishing free trade for industrial products in 12 years, the European Union’s Association Agreements with countries in the Mediterranean region seek to promote accelerated economic growth. This paper reviews the literature and evaluates the economic benefits and costs for Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan. It concludes that the benefits could be substantial, but only if accompanied by deep supplementary reforms, including extending trade liberalization to services and agriculture and on a multilateral basis, improving the environment for foreign direct investment, ensuring an adequate fiscal and exchange rate policy response, and strengthening European Union assistance.
Keywords:
WP; SEM country; trade diversion; free trade; trade creation; EU agreement; SEM government; European Union; Trade liberalization; Mediterranean countries; EU company; EU exporter; economic reform; Eastern Mediterranean country; EU imports; EU consumer; Exports; Tariffs; Imports; Trade agreements; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Globalization and Growth Prospect in Arab Countries
Ms. Patricia Alonso-Gamo
Globalization—the intensification of international trade and finance linkages underpinned by economic liberalization and technological change—presents both challenges and opportunities to Arab countries. After reviewing this region’s disappointing performance in integration and growth, this paper analyzes the empirical relationship between the two and concludes that integration is necessary if high growth rates are to be attained and the region is not to become marginalized. It then identifies the main obstacles to the integration of Arab countries into the world economy and reviews recent progress in overcoming them. On this basis, the paper derives some policy prescriptions.
Keywords:
WP; Arab country; economic activity; private sector; terms of trade; world economy; Globalization; growth; Arab countries; per capita income; Gulf state; relative position vis-à-vis; state monopoly; oil country; Foreign direct investment; Exports; Trade liberalization; Imports; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Jordan; Jordan dinar; net; unit price; factor income; financial market; cost of living index; bills payable; government of Jordan; Imports; Commercial banks; Loans; Exports; Business enterprises; Eastern Europe