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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Developing Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process SRP Framework
Nehmat H Hantas
and
Sebastien Clanet
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC) is currently assisting the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) in enhancing its risk-based supervision through the development of a Supervisory Review and Evaluation SRP framework inspired from European Central Bank (ECB) methodology. The Technical Assistance (TA) mission is part of a multi-step medium-term project. The TA mission aimed to design, in coordination with CBJ, a progressive multi-step roadmap defining the major milestones for a full implementation of SRP. The mission noted that several dimensions should be taken into consideration when implementing the SRP, most notably bridging the data gap by building a fully-fledged supervisory risk database through a dedicated IT project, assessing whether the current organization of the Banking Supervisory Department should be adjusted, and progressively cover all material sources of risks in the SRP.
Keywords:
Central Bank; Banking Supervision; Risk-based Supervision; Supervisory Review Process; Roadmap; Milestones; evaluation process SRP framework; TA mission; SRP approach; SRP assessment; capacity development recipient
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Developing Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process SRP Framework
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC) is currently assisting the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) in enhancing its risk-based supervision through the development of a Supervisory Review and Evaluation SRP framework inspired from European Central Bank (ECB) methodology. The Technical Assistance TA mission is part of a multi-step medium-term project. The TA mission aimed to design, in coordination with CBJ, a progressive multi-step roadmap defining the major milestones for a full implementation of SRP. The mission noted that several dimensions should be taken into consideration when implementing the SRP, most notably bridging the data gap by building a fully-fledged supervisory risk database through a dedicated IT project, assessing whether the current organization of the Banking Supervisory Department should be adjusted, and progressively cover all material sources of risks in the SRP.
Keywords:
evaluation process SRP framework; SRP framework; CBJ's supervision staff; SRP approach; IMF's Monetary; Bank supervision; Commercial banks; Risk-based supervision; Credit risk; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region and those in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with swift and stringent measures to mitigate its spread and impact but continue to face an uncertain and difficult environment. Oil exporters were particularly hard hit by a “double-whammy” of the economic impact of lockdowns and the resulting sharp decline in oil demand and prices. Containing the health crisis, cushioning income losses, and expanding social spending remain immediate priorities. However, governments must also begin to lay the groundwork for recovery and rebuilding stronger, including by addressing legacies from the crisis and strengthening inclusion.

Keywords:
public health; reopening; rebuilding; oil revenue; OPEC+; REO; oil exporter; MCD country; oil importer; IMF staff calculation; MCD firm; MCD region
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director, and Advisor for Jordan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Jordan’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has had a severe impact on the Jordanian people’s lives and on the economy. Tourism disruption and sharp declines in remittances, exports and capital inflows have resulted in an urgent balance of payments need. The Jordanian authorities have responded with decisive containment and health measures that effectively limited the spread of the virus with minimal fatalities. They also implemented a timely package of policies to mitigate the economic fallout of the pandemic. IMF financing under the RFI will support international reserves and help meet the budget financing needs for crisis mitigation. Mobilizing additional financing from multilateral and bilateral creditors will be essential to support the authorities’ policy efforts and preserve macroeconomic stability. The authorities remain committed to the objectives of the reform program supported by the Extended Fund Facility arrangement, which was approved by the Board in March. When the crisis abates, the priority will be resuming fiscal consolidation to place public debt on a declining path and pursuing reforms to strengthen the competitiveness of the Jordanian economy and to support inclusive growth and job creation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; emergency financing request; financing; growth potential; IMF lending tracker; IMF's Rapid Financing Instrument; request for a Rapid Financing Instrument; Arrears; Fiscal stance; Loans; Global; COVID-19
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary and Financial Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Jordan discusses that financial system of Jordan is dominated by other depository corporations (ODC), which constitute around 63 percent of the financial system’s assets. The technical assistance mission delivered objectives and agreed with the authorities on an action plan to improve the country’s monetary statistics. Some progress has been made in the Central Bank trial accounts regarding the sectorization and classification of the financial instruments. The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has made substantive progress in improving human resource skills among staff. The accounting principles are found to be broadly in line with the methodology of the IMF with some departures related to market valuation. The accounting and valuation methodology implemented by the ODCs in Jordan are broadly in line with the recommended compilation practices identified in the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide. Considering the change in the source data since 2014, the mission re-mapped the source data, using data from the aggregated balance sheet of the banking sector and the accompanying schedules through a bridge table. The mission built a time series for all the required data and created a tool linking the data to the Standardized report forms. The tool provides CBJ staff with a simpler method for data compilation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBJ source data; CBJ trial; CBJ supervision; CBJ staff; CBJ datum; Financial statements; Business enterprises; Commercial banks; Financial statistics
Cover IMF Working Papers
FinTech in Financial Inclusion: Machine Learning Applications in Assessing Credit Risk
Majid Bazarbash
Recent advances in digital technology and big data have allowed FinTech (financial technology) lending to emerge as a potentially promising solution to reduce the cost of credit and increase financial inclusion. However, machine learning (ML) methods that lie at the heart of FinTech credit have remained largely a black box for the nontechnical audience. This paper contributes to the literature by discussing potential strengths and weaknesses of ML-based credit assessment through (1) presenting core ideas and the most common techniques in ML for the nontechnical audience; and (2) discussing the fundamental challenges in credit risk analysis. FinTech credit has the potential to enhance financial inclusion and outperform traditional credit scoring by (1) leveraging nontraditional data sources to improve the assessment of the borrower’s track record; (2) appraising collateral value; (3) forecasting income prospects; and (4) predicting changes in general conditions. However, because of the central role of data in ML-based analysis, data relevance should be ensured, especially in situations when a deep structural change occurs, when borrowers could counterfeit certain indicators, and when agency problems arising from information asymmetry could not be resolved. To avoid digital financial exclusion and redlining, variables that trigger discrimination should not be used to assess credit rating.
Keywords:
WP; ML model; bears risk; machine learning technique; ML analysis; ML evaluation; FinTech Credit; Financial Inclusion; Machine Learning; Credit Risk Assessment; ML analyst; credit risk driver; FinTech credit company; credit scoring; supervised machine learning model; capital structure; borrower default; neural network; Credit risk; Credit; Credit ratings; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area
William Arrata
,
Benoit Nguyen
,
Imene Rahmouni-Rousseau
, and
Miklos Vari
Most short-term interest rates in the Euro area are below the European Central Bank deposit facility rate, the rate at which the central bank remunerates banks’ excess reserves. This unexpected development coincided with the start of the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP). In this paper, we explore empirically the interactions between the PSPP and repo rates. We document different channels through which asset purchases may affect them. Using proprietary data from PSPP purchases and repo transactions for specific (“special") securities, we assess the scarcity channel of PSPP and its impact on repo rates. We estimate that purchasing 1 percent of a bond outstanding is associated with a decline of its repo rate of 0.78 bps. Using an instrumental variable, we find that the full effect may be up to six times higher.
Keywords:
WP; repo rate; repo market; GC rate; SC rate; monetary policy; Specialness; asset purchases; money market; Repo rates; Bonds; Securities; Excess liquidity; Money markets
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 2017
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finance & Development, December 2017
Keywords:
FD; F&D; iron lid; country; oil-producing country; economy
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 2017
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finance & Development, December 2017
Keywords:
FD; F&D; iron lid; country; oil-producing country; economy
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 2017
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finance & Development, December 2017
Keywords:
FD; F&D; iron lid; country; oil-producing country; economy