Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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William Arrata
,
Benoit Nguyen
,
Imene Rahmouni-Rousseau
, and
Miklos Vari
Most short-term interest rates in the Euro area are below the European Central Bank deposit facility rate, the rate at which the central bank remunerates banks’ excess reserves. This unexpected development coincided with the start of the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP). In this paper, we explore empirically the interactions between the PSPP and repo rates. We document different channels through which asset purchases may affect them. Using proprietary data from PSPP purchases and repo transactions for specific (“special") securities, we assess the scarcity channel of PSPP and its impact on repo rates. We estimate that purchasing 1 percent of a bond outstanding is associated with a decline of its repo rate of 0.78 bps. Using an instrumental variable, we find that the full effect may be up to six times higher.
Mariam El Hamiani Khatat
This paper discusses key issues related to the conduct of monetary policy in countries that have Islamic banks. It describes the macrofinancial background and monetary policy frameworks where Islamic banks typically operate, and discusses the monetary transmission mechanism in economies where Islamic and conventional banking coexist. Most economies with Islamic banks also have conventional banks and this calls for a comprehensive approach to monetary policy. At the same time, a dual approach to monetary policy should be considered whenever the Islamic segment of the financial system is not as developed as the conventional one. The paper tries to shed light on potential spillovers between conventional and Islamic financial systems, and proposes specific recommendations on the design of Islamic monetary policy operations and for facilitating monetary transmission through the Islamic financial system.
Mr. Adolfo Barajas
,
Mr. Ralph Chami
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
, and
Anne Oeking
Despite welfare and poverty-reducing benefits for recipient households, remittance inflows have been shown to entail macroeconomic challenges; producing Dutch Disease-type effects through their upward (appreciation) pressure on real exchange rates, reducing the quality of institutions, delaying fiscal adjustment, and ultimately having an indeterminate effect on long-run growth. The paper explores an additional challenge, for monetary policy. Although they expand bank balance sheets, providing a stable flow of interest-insensitive funding, remittances tend to increase banks’ holdings of liquid assets. This both reduces the need for an interbank market and severs the link between the policy rate and banks’ marginal costs of funds, thus shutting down a major transmission channel. We develop a stylized model based on asymmetric information and a lack of transparent borrowers and undertake econometric analysis providing evidence that increased remittance inflows are associated with a weaker transmission. As independent monetary policy becomes impaired, this result is consistent with earlier findings that recipient countries tend to favor fixed exchange rate regimes.
International Monetary Fund
In discussing the June 2014 paper, Executive Directors broadly supported staff’s proposal to introduce more flexibility into the Fund’s exceptional access framework to reduce unnecessary costs for the member, its creditors, and the overall system. Directors’ views varied on staff’s proposal to eliminate the systemic exemption introduced in 2010. Many Directors favored removing the exemption but some others preferred to retain it and requested staff to consult further with relevant stakeholders on possible approaches to managing contagion. This paper offers specific proposals on how the Fund’s policy framework could be changed, presents staff’s analysis on the specific issue of managing contagion, and addresses some implementation issues. No Board decision is proposed at this stage. The paper is consistent with the Executive Board’s May 2013 endorsement of a work program focused on strengthening market-based approaches to resolving sovereign debt crises.
Mr. Adolfo Barajas
,
Mr. Ralph Chami
, and
Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi
A large theoretical and empirical literature has focused on the impact of financial deepening on economic growth throughout the world. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating whether this impact differs across regions, income levels, and types of economy. Using a rich dataset for 150 countries for the period 1975–2005, dynamic panel estimation results suggest that the beneficial effect of financial deepening on economic growth in fact displays measurable heterogeneity; it is generally smaller in oil exporting countries; in certain regions, such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and in lower-income countries. Further analysis suggests that these differences might be driven by regulatory/supervisory characteristics and related to differences in the ability to provide widespread access to financial services.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
'Wising Up to the Costs of Aging' looks at how falling fertility and rising life expectancy have combined to threaten the ability of many countries to provide a decent standard of living for the old without imposing a crushing burden on the young. In our lead article, Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason say that while population aging in rich industrial countries as well as in some middle- and lower-income countries will challenge public and private budgets in many ways, a combination of reduced consumption, postponed retirement, increased asset holdings, and greater investment in human capital should make it possible to meet this challenge without catastrophic consequences. Neil Howe and Richard Jackson publish a fascinating ranking of which countries are best and worst prepared to meet the needs of the growing wave of retirees. We also have articles on a broad range of current topics, including Middle East unemployment, the economic repercussions of the earthquake and devastating tsunami in Japan, and banking in offshore financial centers such as the Cayman Islands. Carmen Reinhart and Jacob Kirkegaard look at how governments are finding ways to manipulate markets to hold down the cost of financing huge public debts, and, in Straight Talk, the IMF’s Min Zhu talks about the long-term challenges now facing emerging markets. Prakash Loungani speaks to Nobel Prize winner George Akerlof, and we discuss with three other laureates-Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, and Robert Solow-what the global economic crisis has taught us. Back to Basics explains economic models, and Picture This highlights the great variations in the cost of sending money back home.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
'Wising Up to the Costs of Aging' looks at how falling fertility and rising life expectancy have combined to threaten the ability of many countries to provide a decent standard of living for the old without imposing a crushing burden on the young. In our lead article, Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason say that while population aging in rich industrial countries as well as in some middle- and lower-income countries will challenge public and private budgets in many ways, a combination of reduced consumption, postponed retirement, increased asset holdings, and greater investment in human capital should make it possible to meet this challenge without catastrophic consequences. Neil Howe and Richard Jackson publish a fascinating ranking of which countries are best and worst prepared to meet the needs of the growing wave of retirees. We also have articles on a broad range of current topics, including Middle East unemployment, the economic repercussions of the earthquake and devastating tsunami in Japan, and banking in offshore financial centers such as the Cayman Islands. Carmen Reinhart and Jacob Kirkegaard look at how governments are finding ways to manipulate markets to hold down the cost of financing huge public debts, and, in Straight Talk, the IMF’s Min Zhu talks about the long-term challenges now facing emerging markets. Prakash Loungani speaks to Nobel Prize winner George Akerlof, and we discuss with three other laureates-Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, and Robert Solow-what the global economic crisis has taught us. Back to Basics explains economic models, and Picture This highlights the great variations in the cost of sending money back home.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
'Wising Up to the Costs of Aging' looks at how falling fertility and rising life expectancy have combined to threaten the ability of many countries to provide a decent standard of living for the old without imposing a crushing burden on the young. In our lead article, Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason say that while population aging in rich industrial countries as well as in some middle- and lower-income countries will challenge public and private budgets in many ways, a combination of reduced consumption, postponed retirement, increased asset holdings, and greater investment in human capital should make it possible to meet this challenge without catastrophic consequences. Neil Howe and Richard Jackson publish a fascinating ranking of which countries are best and worst prepared to meet the needs of the growing wave of retirees. We also have articles on a broad range of current topics, including Middle East unemployment, the economic repercussions of the earthquake and devastating tsunami in Japan, and banking in offshore financial centers such as the Cayman Islands. Carmen Reinhart and Jacob Kirkegaard look at how governments are finding ways to manipulate markets to hold down the cost of financing huge public debts, and, in Straight Talk, the IMF’s Min Zhu talks about the long-term challenges now facing emerging markets. Prakash Loungani speaks to Nobel Prize winner George Akerlof, and we discuss with three other laureates-Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, and Robert Solow-what the global economic crisis has taught us. Back to Basics explains economic models, and Picture This highlights the great variations in the cost of sending money back home.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Au sommaire de ce numéro, intitulé « Comment assumer le poids des ans » : la baisse des taux de fécondité et l'augmentation de l'espérance de vie mettent à mal la capacité de nombreux pays d’assurer un niveau de vie décent pour leurs seniors sans imposer une charge écrasante aux jeunes. Dans l'article de fond, Ronald Lee et Andrew Mason expliques qu'il est certain que le vieillissement de la population dans les pays industrialisés riches et dans certains pays à revenu intermédiaire ou à faible revenu va mettre les budgets publics et privés à rude épreuve, mais qu'en agissant sur plusieurs fronts (réduction de la consommation, relèvement de l’âge de la retraite, accumulation d’actifs et investissements plus importants dans le capital humain), il devrait être possible de relever le défi sans entraîner de conséquences catastrophiques. Neil Howe et Richard Jackson nous donnent un classement étonnant des pays les mieux et les moins bien préparés à absorber une vague de retraités qui s'amplifie. Plusieurs articles sont consacrés à diverses questions d'actualité, dont le chômage au Moyen-Orient, les répercussions économiques du séisme et du tsunami dévastateurs au Japon et les activités bancaires des places financières offshore telles que les Îles Caïmans. Carmen Reinhart et Jacob Kirkegaard examinent comment les gouvernements s'arrangent pour manipuler les marchés afin de contenir le coût du financement d'énormes dettes publiques et, dans la rubrique Entre nous, Min Zhu, du FMI, explique que les pays émergents doivent s'adapter à la nouvelle réalité mondiale en mettant à profit leur réussite économique et en s'attaquant à certains de leurs problèmes à long terme. Dans Paroles d'économistes, Prakash Loungani s'entretient avec le lauréat du prix Nobel George Akerlof et trois autres lauréats, Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz et Robert Solow, débattent des conséquences de la crise mondiale et de ce qu'elle nous a enseigné. La rubrique « L’ABC de l’économie » explique les modèles économiques, tandis que « Pleins feux » illustrent les importants écarts du coût des envois de fonds.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
“Enfrentar con sabiduría los costos de envejecer” analiza cómo la conjunción de menores tasas de fecundidad y una mayor la esperanza de vida compromete la capacidad de los países para ofrecer condiciones de vida decentes para los ancianos sin imponer una carga abrumadora sobre los jóvenes. En nuestro artículo central, Ronald Lee y Andrew Mason argumentan que el envejecimiento demográfico en los países industriales ricos, así como en los países de mediano y bajo ingreso, pondrá a prueba de múltiples maneras a los presupuestos estatales y privados; combinando una reducción del consumo, el retraso de la jubilación, un aumento de las inversiones en activos y una mayor inversión en capital humano sería posible hacer frente a este desafío sin que tenga consecuencias catastróficas. Neil Howe y Richard Jackson publican una clasificación fascinante sobre el grado de preparación de los países para hacer frente a la creciente oleada de jubilados. También se incluyen artículos sobre diversos temas de actualidad, como el desempleo en Oriente Medio, las repercusiones económicas del terremoto y el devastador tsunami en Japón, y sobre la actividad bancaria en centros financieros offshore como las islas Caimán. Carmen Reinhart y Jacob Kirkegaard analizan cómo los gobiernos están encontrando maneras de manipular los mercados para contener el costo de financiamiento del enorme volumen de deuda y en “Hablando claro”, Min Zhu, del FMI, se refiere a los desafíos de largo plazo que deben abordar los mercados emergentes. Prakash Loungani conversa con el Premio Nóbel George Akerlof. También analizamos las enseñanzas de la crisis económica mundial con otros tres galardonados: Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz y Robert Solow. En “Vuelta a lo esencial” se explican los modelos económicos y en “Bajo la lupa” se destacan las grandes variaciones del costo de los giros de dinero al país de origen.