Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses IMF’s 2024 Article IV Consultation, Second Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria for Jordan. Jordan continues to show resilience and maintain macro-economic stability, despite the headwinds caused by the regional conflict. This resilience reflects the authorities’ continued implementation of sound macro-economic policies and reform progress. Inflation is projected to remain low, at about 2 percent, reflecting the Central Bank of Jordan’s firm commitment to monetary stability and the exchange rate peg. Jordan’s external position remains relatively strong. Bringing the Jordanian economy onto a higher growth trajectory is essential to create more jobs and raise prosperity. This requires accelerating structural reforms, while maintaining macro-economic stability. Strong and timely international support also remains crucial to help Jordan navigate through the external headwinds, while shouldering the costs of hosting a large number of Syrian refugees.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper highlights Jordan’s First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Jordan’s economy continues to show resilience despite a challenging external environment. The economy continues to grow, albeit at a somewhat slower pace, inflation is low, and reserve buffers are strong. Growth is projected to pick up pace in 2025, contingent upon the Israel-Gaza conflict ending and its impact fading. Uncertainty is high, however, and structural challenges remain, with continued high unemployment. Strong progress was also made in implementing structural benchmarks (SBs), with all six SBs for the first review met, and with good progress being made toward meeting SBs for the next review. The authorities remain firmly committed to sound macro-economic policies and advancing structural reforms, to maintain macro stability, further strengthen economic resilience in the face of successive external shocks, and foster stronger, job-rich growth. Steadfast implementation of structural reforms is crucial to create a more dynamic private sector that can generate sufficient jobs and contribute to higher living standards.
Suphachol Suphachalasai
,
Hasan Dudu
,
Diala Al Masri
,
Fabiana Machado
,
Junko Mochizuki
, and
Karlygash Zhunussova
This technical assistance conducts a climate policy diagnostic for Jordan, covering climate adaptation and mitigation policy, as well as enabling institutions. Jordan faces acute challenges of climate-food-water nexus—innovative climate policy approaches are key, given limited fiscal space. While Jordan needs to strengthen the investment climate for climate investment through streamlining existing policies and alleviating critical barriers, making social policy more shock-responsive and strengthening risk management can go a long way in building resilience. As climate-related risks globally intensify, the government is encouraged to move toward a risk-informed policy and financing strategy.
Bryn Battersby
,
Diala Al Masri
,
Robert N Clifton
,
Ed Hearne
,
Murray Petrie
, and
Jad Mazahreh
The assistance assessed how climate change impacts and mitigation and adaptation responses are addressed in the public investment cycle using the Climate Module of the Public Investment Management Assessment (C-PIMA). The assistance also evaluated the scope to advance Green Public Financial Management (PFM) practices, drawing on the IMF’s new Green PFM framework. Jordan was found to performs well in the climate-aware planning and coordination institutions of the C-PIMA, but some gaps were identified in implementation aspects of the framework, and there were several areas where climate could be better integrated in the PFM system.
Nehmat H Hantas
and
Sebastien Clanet
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC) is currently assisting the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) in enhancing its risk-based supervision through the development of a Supervisory Review and Evaluation SRP framework inspired from European Central Bank (ECB) methodology. The Technical Assistance (TA) mission is part of a multi-step medium-term project. The TA mission aimed to design, in coordination with CBJ, a progressive multi-step roadmap defining the major milestones for a full implementation of SRP. The mission noted that several dimensions should be taken into consideration when implementing the SRP, most notably bridging the data gap by building a fully-fledged supervisory risk database through a dedicated IT project, assessing whether the current organization of the Banking Supervisory Department should be adjusted, and progressively cover all material sources of risks in the SRP.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC) is currently assisting the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) in enhancing its risk-based supervision through the development of a Supervisory Review and Evaluation SRP framework inspired from European Central Bank (ECB) methodology. The Technical Assistance TA mission is part of a multi-step medium-term project. The TA mission aimed to design, in coordination with CBJ, a progressive multi-step roadmap defining the major milestones for a full implementation of SRP. The mission noted that several dimensions should be taken into consideration when implementing the SRP, most notably bridging the data gap by building a fully-fledged supervisory risk database through a dedicated IT project, assessing whether the current organization of the Banking Supervisory Department should be adjusted, and progressively cover all material sources of risks in the SRP.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Jordan’s Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Building on Jordan’s consistently strong performance under the previous program, the new EFF arrangement will support the authorities’ efforts toward maintaining macro-stability; further building resilience, and accelerating structural reforms to achieve stronger, more inclusive growth and job creation. Sound policymaking and support from international partners have helped Jordan to withstand well a series of shocks over the past few years and to maintain macro-stability, broad-based economic growth, and market access, and strengthen social safety nets. Going forward, supported by the new EFF arrangement, policies are focused on maintaining macro-stability and further building resilience, and accelerating structural reforms to achieve stronger, more inclusive growth and job creation, to tackle high unemployment. Further progress in implementing structural reforms to improve the business environment and attract private investment is crucial to create a dynamic private sector, foster job-rich growth, and achieve the objectives of Jordan’s Economic Modernization Vision.
Nick Carroll
,
Carolina Bloch
,
Eduardo González-Pier
, and
Stefan Kiss
This report reviews Jordan’s public health expenditure and develops options to enhance spending efficiency that support the government’s health and fiscal consolidation efforts. The particular focus of the mission was to provide support on: (1) overall health spending analysis, (2) support country efforts to develop and implement an affordable path to expand health coverage, (3) identify areas where the Ministry of Finance can build capacity and support reform efforts.
Adel Al-Sharkas
,
Nedal Al-Azzam
,
Sarah AlTalafha
,
Rasha Abu Shawish
,
Ahmad Shalein
,
Auday Rawwaqah
,
Amany Al-Rawashdeh
,
Daniel Baksa
,
Mr. Philippe D Karam
, and
Mr. Jan Vlcek
The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has developed a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to serve as a reliable analytical framework for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and decision-making under a pegged exchange rate regime. At the heart of the FPAS is the CBJ’s extended Jordan Analysis Model (JAM2.0). The model captures the monetary transmission mechanism and provides a consistent monetary policy framework that uses the exchange rate as an effective nominal anchor. This paper outlines the structure and properties of JAM2.0 and emphasizes the enhanced interplay and tradeoffs among monetary, fiscal, and foreign exchange management policies. Simulation and forecasting exercises demonstrate JAM2.0’s ability to match key stylized facts of the Jordanian economy, produce accurate forecasts of important macroeconomic variables, and explain the critical relationships among policies.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Jordan’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. The IMF-supported program remains firmly on track, with key quantitative targets met and strong performance on structural benchmarks, reflecting the authorities’ strong ownership. Despite a challenging global environment, Jordan’s economy is projected to continue to grow this year at 2.6 percent, and inflation has remained relatively low and is declining. The Jordanian authorities have managed to successfully navigate recent external shocks and maintain macro-economic stability in an uncertain and challenging environment. Thanks to the steadfast implementation of prudent fiscal and monetary policies, fiscal consolidation is on track, capital market access has been maintained, and inflation has remained relatively low and is declining, while reserve coverage is strong. Monetary policy has responded quickly to U.S. Federal Reserve policy changes and remains focused on safeguarding the peg and maintaining strong reserve buffers.