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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 33 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan
Adel Al-Sharkas
,
Nedal Al-Azzam
,
Sarah AlTalafha
,
Rasha Abu Shawish
,
Ahmad Shalein
,
Auday Rawwaqah
,
Amany Al-Rawashdeh
,
Daniel Baksa
,
Mr. Philippe D Karam
, and
Mr. Jan Vlcek
The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has developed a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to serve as a reliable analytical framework for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and decision-making under a pegged exchange rate regime. At the heart of the FPAS is the CBJ’s extended Jordan Analysis Model (JAM2.0). The model captures the monetary transmission mechanism and provides a consistent monetary policy framework that uses the exchange rate as an effective nominal anchor. This paper outlines the structure and properties of JAM2.0 and emphasizes the enhanced interplay and tradeoffs among monetary, fiscal, and foreign exchange management policies. Simulation and forecasting exercises demonstrate JAM2.0’s ability to match key stylized facts of the Jordanian economy, produce accurate forecasts of important macroeconomic variables, and explain the critical relationships among policies.
Keywords:
forecasting exercise; policy analysis; model forecasting; FX reserve management; headline inflation; Inflation; Exchange rate arrangements; Output gap; Real exchange rates; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Bjoern Rother
,
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
,
Davide Lombardo
,
Risto Herrala
,
Ms. Priscilla Toffano
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
, and
Ms. Karina Manasseh
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Keywords:
SDN; conflict country; refugee crisis; central bank; economic activity; country authorities; Middle East and North Africa; conflicts; refugees; macroeconomic policy; economic spillovers; post-conflict reconstruction; international community; MENA region; MENA country; physical capital; financial support; IMF staff calculation; growth potential; MENA conflict country; Labor markets; Infrastructure; Inflation; Middle East; North Africa; Global; East Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the importance of oil and interest rate spillovers for Saudi Arabia. Oil prices have fallen by more than 40 percent since mid-2014 while the Federal Reserve is expected in the coming months to begin raising its policy rate at the beginning of a gradual tightening cycle. Given the importance of oil to the economy and the peg of the riyal to the U.S. dollar, these are two key developments for Saudi Arabia. Although a temporary drop in oil prices would likely have little effect on the economy and banks given the financial cushions that have been built-up, a longer-lasting period of low oil prices would have a more significant impact.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; oil price; private sector; government spending; equity price; energy price; NPL ratio; price reform; Energy prices; Oil prices; Fuel prices; Labor markets; Electricity; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges
International Monetary Fund
The Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) have had diverging trajectories over the past year and face an uncertain outlook.1 Improvements in the European economy, lower oil prices, and some progress on the policy front have provided tailwinds to growth, which is expected to pick up significantly in Egypt and Morocco. At the same time, unemployment remains high. Moreover, several of the ACTs have also suffered from intensifying and spreading conflicts that cause widespread human suffering and sizeable economic challenges. Libya and Yemen are directly affected, while spillovers from these conflicts and the civil wars in Iraq and Syria weigh on Jordan and Tunisia, as well as other countries in the region (e.g., Lebanon, Djibouti), Turkey and Europe. These spillovers come most prominently in the form of large refugee flows, deteriorating security, and pressures on economic infrastructures and labor markets. All these factors add urgency to the need in the Arab countries to strengthen economic resilience and address long-standing sources of inequity and exclusion. Coordinated and scaled-up support from the international community will be also critical in stabilizing conditions in the region, addressing the refugee crisis, and securing a more promising economic future for the ACTs in this challenging environment.
Keywords:
PP; government; deficit; financing; country; General government balance; budget deficit; job creation; exchange rate; labor market; economic activity; excl. grant; GDP growth; Current account deficits; Inflation; Government debt management; Oil prices; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Subsidy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa: Recent Progress and Challenges Ahead
Mr. Carlo A Sdralevich
,
Miss Randa Sab
,
Mr. Younes Zouhar
, and
Ms. Giorgia Albertin
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; subsidy reform; exchange rate; fuel price; price increase; price subsidy; energy subsidy; food subsidy; fuel subsidy; Energy subsidies; Fuel prices; Inflation; Oil prices; Social assistance spending; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; oil importer; oil exporter; reform outcome; reforms in the Middle East; Oil
Cover IMF Working Papers
Economic Impact of Selected Conflicts in the Middle East: What Can We Learn from the Past?
Miss Randa Sab
Using narrative-based country-case studies, war episodes in the Middle East were examined to assess their economic impact on conflict and neighboring economies. The paper found that conflicts led to a contraction in growth, higher inflation, large fiscal and current account deficits, loss of reserves, and a weakened financial system. Post-conflict recovery depended on the economic and institutional development of the country, economic structure, duration of the war, international engagement, and prevailing security conditions. The net economic impact on neighboring countries varied according to their initial economic conditions, number and income level of refugees they hosted, economic integration, and external assistance.
Keywords:
WP; Iraq; Kuwait; financial system; Lebanon; Conflict; post-conflict economic recovery; Middle East; debt settlement program; excess demand; inflation in Kuwait; free market; invasion of Iraq; Lebanon's banking system; country-case study methodology; Inflation; Current account deficits; Financial sector; International reserves; Exchange rates; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges
International Monetary Fund
In spite of deepening and spreading conflicts in the region, as well as, in many cases, a challenging internal socio-political environment, the Arab Countries in Transition (Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and Yemen) have broadly maintained macroeconomic stability. At the same time, however, their economies are not delivering the growth rates needed for a meaningful reduction in unemployment, in particular for the youth and women. Notwithstanding diversity of conditions, countries should quickly advance structural reforms to foster higher and more inclusive growth, and continue to strengthen fiscal and external buffers to maintain stability amid heightened uncertainty. Coordinated support from the international community will be crucial in the form of financing, improved trade access, and capacity building assistance.
Keywords:
PP; current account; monetary policy; excl. grant; exchange rate; economic activity; labor market; private sector; government balance; Current account deficits; Government debt management; Budget planning and preparation; Middle East; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - An Update on Economic Outlook and Key Challenges
International Monetary Fund
Despite uneven progress, there are early signs of improvement and macroeconomic stabilization in some Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs). 1 However, persistently weak growth and subdued private investment amid heightened regional insecurity continue to weigh on the task of reducing unemployment. This calls for accelerated reform efforts by the authorities to achieve higher, more inclusive, and more private sector-led growth, supported by external partners. In addition, mobilizing affordable external financing could help boost well-implemented public investment and provide a short-term impetus to growth and employment, thereby stabilizing difficult socio-political conditions on the ground and providing space for deeper structural reforms.
Keywords:
PP; job creation; economic activity; private sector; real GDP; trading partner; financial support; current account; government balance; Government debt management; Budget planning and preparation; Current account deficits; Inflation; Global; Middle East; Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
Mali: Achieving Strong and Inclusive Growth with Macroeconomic Stability
Mr. Christian Josz
This note studies Mali’s performance in poverty reduction by analyzing household data from surveys in 2001, 2006 and 2009–10. Mali’s share of poor households has decreased substantially during the past decade. While the reduction in headcount poverty was more pronounced from 2001–06 when all sectors of Mali’s economy grew at a similar pace, economic growth was mainly beneficial to the very poor during 2006–10 when agricultural production boomed.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; current account; Malian authorities; banking sector; central bank; balance of payments; price band; retail price; competitiveness indicator; housing bank Banque de l'Habitat du Mali; business environment; import price; Banque de l'Habitat du Mali; price fluctuation; oil price; Oil prices; Inflation; Fuel prices; Consumption; Energy subsidies; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; current account norm; trade elasticity; financial market; infrastructure bottleneck; world price increase
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges - Deauville Partnership Ministerial Meeting
International Monetary Fund
In an environment of heightened socio-economic tensions, regional insecurity, and strained public finances, the Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) 1 face the difficult task of delivering on the expectations for jobs and growth. Despite patchy improvements in some countries, economic growth remains subdued, private investment is weak, and external and fiscal buffers are running low. Fostering social cohesion and avoiding a downward spiral of economic and political malaise calls for urgent implementation of economic reforms and coordinated support from the international community.
Keywords:
PP; excl. grant; exchange rate; job creation; monetary policy; foreign exchange; General government balance; financial support; government balance; reform program; grant financing; financing needs; transition countries' financing gap; credit growth; Current account deficits; Government debt management; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Middle East; Deauville partnership ministerial meeting; countries in transition; title page; key challenge; North Africa; East Africa