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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Personal Income Taxes in the Middle East and North Africa: Prospects and Possibilities
Mario Mansour
and
Eric M. Zolt
Personal income taxes (PITs) play little or no role in the Middle East and North Africa, often yielding less than 2 percent of GDP in revenue—with the exception of few North African countries. This paper examines how PITs have evolved in recent decades, and what they might look like in the next 20 years. Top marginal tax rates on labor and business income of individuals have declined substantially, a trend that mirrors reductions in advanced and developing economies. Taxation of passive capital income has changed very little, and the revenue intake from this source remains low throughout the region (less than 1 percent of GDP on average and concentrated in oil-importing non-fragile states). Social security contributions (SSC) have increased in importance in nearly all MENA countries, and some countries have introduced additional payroll taxes. The combination of reduced marginal tax rates, light taxation of income from capital and business activities, and increase of SSC, have resulted in income tax systems that create disincentives to work and incentives for informality, and contribute little to government revenue and income redistribution. Given differences in economic and political structures, demographics, and starting points, the path to PIT/SSC reforms will vary across the region. Countries with relatively mature PIT/SSC systems, where revenue performance has improved in the past two decades, will increasingly need to balance the revenue and equity objectives against effciency objectives (in particular labor market incentives and infromality). Countries with no PITs will have to weigh whether a consumption tax/SSC system that mimic a flat tax on labor income is sufficient to diversify revenue away from oil and whether to adopt PITs to address rising income and wealth inequality. Finally, fragile states, who face more political volatility and weaker fiscal institutions, will have to focus on simplicity of tax design and collection to be able to raise revenue from PITs.
Keywords:
Personal income taxes; social security contributions; payroll taxes; fragile and conflict states; Middle East and North Africa; Gulf-Cooperation Council; SSC reform; SSC system; revenue performance; PIT objective; PIT revenue; Personal income tax; Income tax systems; Income; Income and capital gains taxes; Corporate income tax; North Africa; Middle East; East Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia
Mr. Yasser Abdih
,
Mr. Ralph Chami
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
, and
Mr. Adolfo Barajas
This paper identifies a remittances channel that transmits exogenous shocks, such as business cycles in remittance-sending countries, to the public finances of remittance-receiving countries. Using panel data for remittance-receiving countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, three types of results emerge. First, remittances appear to be strongly procyclical vis-à-vis sending country income. Second, remittances tend to be spent on consumption of both imported and domestically produced goods, rather than on investment. Third, shocks in the sending countries are transmitted via remittances to the public finances - specifically, tax revenues - of receiving countries. In the case of the 2009 global downturn, this impact was particularly strong for several countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, whereas in the subsequent recovery in 2010 virtually all receiving countries benefitted from an upturn in remittance-driven tax revenues.
Keywords:
WP; remittance inflow; real GDP; remittance determination equation; business cycle; remittance-recipient country; Remittances; Private demand; Tax revenues; Instrumental variables; Panel data; instrumentation equation; remittance channel; remittance flow; remittances model; remittance equation; remittance effect; remittance-source region; remittance ratio; Income; Private consumption; Consumption; Global; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances: An Automatic Output Stabilizer?
Ms. Dalia S Hakura
,
Mr. Ralph Chami
, and
Mr. Peter J Montiel
Remittance flows appear to be falling worldwide for the first time in decades as a result of the ongoing financial turmoil. It is suspected that the drop in remittance income into developing and emerging markets will have a destabilizing effect on these economies. The paper estimates the impact of remittances on output stability for countries that are dependent on these income flows. Using a sample of 70 countries, including 16 advanced economies and 54 developing countries, we find robust evidence that remittances have a negative effect on output growth volatility of recipient countries. This result supports the notion that remittance flows are a stabilizing influence on output. Thus, the fall in remittances precipitated by the ongoing global financial crisis could potentially increase output variability in recipient countries. This would present a hard challenge for governments in those countries already suffering from the crisis: they must resort to an already stressed and limited set of policy instruments, such as fiscal policy, to counter the resulting adverse economic and social impacts of lower remittances.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; remittance flow; GDP; remittance inflow
Cover IMF Working Papers
Land Distribution and Financial System Development
Mr. Dietrich Vollrath
and
Mr. Lennart Erickson
Research on credit markets from developing economies, as well as work on the origin of institutions in general, has suggested that land inequality may play a role in determining financial development. In this paper we establish empirically that initial land inequality is a significant predictor of financial depth across countries, even while controlling for other predictors such as legal origin, ethnic fractionalization, and income inequality. To examine this relationship we have created a new measure of land distribution within countries that builds upon the work of Deininger and Squire (1998) by explicitly accounting for landlessness. In addition to being a significant predictor of financial development, land inequality is found to be uncorrelated with other fundamental characteristics of economies, suggesting its possible use in a wider range of research.
Keywords:
WP; land inequality; Lorenz curve; standard deviation; inequality measure
Cover IMF Working Papers
Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances: How Do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP At Home?
Mr. Serdar Sayan
Workers' remittances are often argued to have a tendency to move countercyclically with the GDP in recipient countries since migrant workers are expected to remit more during down cycles of economic activity back home. Yet, how much to remit is a complex decision involving other factors, and different variables driving remittance behavior are differently affected by the state of economic activity over the business cycle. This paper investigates the behavior of workers' remittances flows into 12 developing countries over their respective business cycles during 1976-2003 and finds that countercyclicality of receipts is not commonly observed across these countries.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; role remittances play; remittance behavior; spending; workers’ remittances; business cycles; consumption vs. investment motive; remittance receipt; remittances cycle; remittances series; workers' remittance; Bangladesh's remittances receipt; remittance flow; Remittances; Migrant labor; Income; Procyclicality; Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Affordable Mortgages in Improving Living Standards and Stimulating Growth: A Survey of Selected Mena Countries
Mr. Frank E. Nothaft
and
Mr. S. Nuri Erbas
This paper argues that making affordable home mortgage loans available to a large cross section of the population will serve both the redistributive and growth-enhancing objectives of poverty reduction policies. The current state of housing and mortgage markets in selected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia) is examined. The study evaluates Turkey and Mexico as middle-income comparator countries. Historical experience of the United States is also described. Simulations based on U.S. parameters provide some guide to the effects on economic growth of alleviating housing shortages by improving access to mortgage financing.
Keywords:
WP; housing construction; term housing finance facility; mortgage lending; commercial bank; down payment; mortgage finance market; housing supply; mortgage finance availability; growth; poverty; secondary mortgage market; construction initiative; production program; mortgage financing; insolvent public sector housing institution; housing demand; government housing policy; Housing; Mortgages; Housing prices; Loans; Income; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Maghreb
Cover Equity and Efficiency in the Reform of Price Subsidies
Equity and Efficiency in the Reform of Price Subsidies
A Guide for Policymakers
Mr. Juan P Cordoba
,
Mr. Robert Gillingham
,
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
,
Mr. Ali M. Mansoor
,
Mr. Christian Schiller
, and
Marijn Verhoeven

Abstract

This text provides guidance to policymakers on how to design and implement sound price-subsidy reforms. It draws on the experience of price-subsidy reform in 28 countries. The authors discuss economic and political considerations and make several recommendations concerning the speed of reform and social protection mechanisms. They discuss how the social impact of reform can be limited by establishing cost-effective and well-targeted temporary social protection mechanisms, and how governments can reduce the risk of political disruption by distributing the initial burden of reform fairly and by clearly explaining the costs and benefits to the public.

Keywords:
M&G; price-subsidy reform; price; subsidy; price subsidy; compensation scheme; price-subsidy policy; price change; reform measure; household income; Income; Inflation; Government subsidies; Social assistance spending; Household consumption; Middle East; Africa; East Asia; North Africa; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere; Central Asia; Europe; Global; budgetary saving; Housing; Currencies
Cover IMF Working Papers
Political Economy Aspects of Trade and Financial Liberalization: Implications for Sequencing
Ms. Rina Bhattacharya
This paper integrates a two-period overlapping generations model with a standard two-sector Hecksher-Ohlin trade model and analyzes the impact of uncertainty on domestic investment in the exportable and importable sectors, the political economy linkages between trade and financial liberalization, and the implications for sequencing. Under certain assumptions financial liberalization leads to a movement of resources in the opposite direction to that implied by trade liberalization, thus defeating one of the objectives of tariff reform. When political economy linkages are taken into account, however, the indirect effects of financial liberalization may offset the direct effects and encourage a movement of resources in the desired direction.
Keywords:
WP; financial market; Investment; Uncertainity; Political Economy; Financial Liberalization; Trade Liberalization; financial market reform; demand schedule; household saving; marginal revenue; market equilibrium; transition economy; interest rate rL; Tariffs; Domestic savings; Deposit rates
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey: Volume 28, Issue 04
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; IMF staff mission; IMF's website; EFF arrangement; country; ESAF arrangement; IMF survey; IMF publication service; Inflation; Income inequality; Foreign direct investment; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Central and Eastern Europe; Baltics; Eastern Europe; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover Economic Dislocation and Recovery in Lebanon
Economic Dislocation and Recovery in Lebanon
Mr. Jose Martelino
,
Mr. S. Nuri Erbas
,
Mr. Adnan Mazarei
,
Ms. Sena Eken
, and
Mr. Paul Cashin

Abstract

This paper provides background information on the Lebanese economy, based on an analysis of the economic consequences of war, and discusses several issues that will be central to Lebanon's prospects for recovery

Keywords:
OP; exchange rate; Lebanese pound; economy; exchange rate movement; currency substitution; net foreign currency position; US$ exchange rate series; Lebanese economy; Exchange rates; Monetary aggregates; Dollarization; Personal income; Middle East; South America; Africa; Europe; dollar currency; access to flow; Total expenditures