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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Spillover Effects of the Global Crisison Economic Activity in Mena Emerging Market Countries: An Analysis Using the Financial Stress Index
Mr. Kenji Moriyama
The estimated spillover of the global crisis to emerging market (EM) economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) indicates that nearly two-thirds of the increased financial stress in MENA EM countries after the Lehman shock is attributable to direct or indirect spillovers of financial stress in advanced economies. Moreover, the estimated models suggest that the increased financial stress and slowdown in economic activity in advanced economies can explain about half of the drop in real GDP growth in MENA EM countries after the Lehman shock.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP growth; economic activity; Spillover; financial stress; emerging market; GCC country; growth projection; advanced economy; emerging market country; countries in the Middle East and North Africa; Financial soundness indicators; Estimation techniques; Spillovers; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances: An Automatic Output Stabilizer?
Ms. Dalia S Hakura
,
Mr. Ralph Chami
, and
Mr. Peter J Montiel
Remittance flows appear to be falling worldwide for the first time in decades as a result of the ongoing financial turmoil. It is suspected that the drop in remittance income into developing and emerging markets will have a destabilizing effect on these economies. The paper estimates the impact of remittances on output stability for countries that are dependent on these income flows. Using a sample of 70 countries, including 16 advanced economies and 54 developing countries, we find robust evidence that remittances have a negative effect on output growth volatility of recipient countries. This result supports the notion that remittance flows are a stabilizing influence on output. Thus, the fall in remittances precipitated by the ongoing global financial crisis could potentially increase output variability in recipient countries. This would present a hard challenge for governments in those countries already suffering from the crisis: they must resort to an already stressed and limited set of policy instruments, such as fiscal policy, to counter the resulting adverse economic and social impacts of lower remittances.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; remittance flow; GDP; remittance inflow
Cover IMF Working Papers
Informational Efficiency in Developing Equity Markets
Mr. C. John McDermott
and
Mr. Paul Cashin
The issue of informational efficiency in the evolution of asset prices is examined using data on equity markets in Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan over the period 1986–93. The analysis is carried out in two steps. The parameters of agents’ dynamic consumption and investment decisions are first estimated, and then the implied equity market price, based on market fundamentals, is compared with the actual evolution of equity market prices. While the informational efficiency of each of the three markets is found to be deficient, the causes of market inefficiency are varied. For Jordan it appears that a large negative shock to economic activity in the late 1980s caused agents to discount market fundamentals. For Turkey and Pakistan it is likely that institutional and legal rigidities in equity and banking markets resulted in these markets being illiquid, although this lack of market depth did reduce in severity for Turkey over the sample period, as liberalization of financial markets occurred.
Keywords:
WP; informational efficiency; utility function; market fundamentals; banking market; asset market liberalization; rate of return; market efficiency; market movement; financial market regulation; market information; Stock markets; Stocks; Asset prices; Consumption; Estimation techniques; Global; Middle East