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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 21 items for :

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Cover Policy Papers
IMF Approach to Central Bank Digital Currency Capacity Development
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The global central banking community is actively exploring Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which may have a fundamental impact on both domestic and international economic and financial stability. Over 40 countries have approached the IMF to request assistance through CBDC capacity development (CD). Current IMF CBDC CD efforts have focused on facilitating peer learning and developing analytical underpinnings for staff advice to member countries. CD missions have aimed at helping country authorities answer questions about how to think about CBDCs. With more available country experiments and empirical evidence, IMF CD will evolve to provide increased value-added advice more tailored to country circumstances and more solidly anchored in empirical and analytical work, and strengthen synergies with surveillance. This paper sketches a multi-year strategy to address frequently asked questions related to CBDC and outlines the process for developing a CBDC Handbook which will document emerging lessons, analytical findings, and policy views. The paper (1) explains the IMF’s approach to CBDC CD; (2) summarizes member countries’ emerging questions and challenges regarding CBDC; and (3) introduces the CBDC Handbook by motivating its scope and elucidating its governance structure.
Keywords:
Central bank digital currencies; capacity development; Handbook; CBDC handbook; IMF's digital money strategy; IMF approach; IMF CD; handbook chapter; IMF staff encounter; Payment systems; Digital currencies; Financial sector stability; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director, and Advisor for Jordan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Jordan’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has had a severe impact on the Jordanian people’s lives and on the economy. Tourism disruption and sharp declines in remittances, exports and capital inflows have resulted in an urgent balance of payments need. The Jordanian authorities have responded with decisive containment and health measures that effectively limited the spread of the virus with minimal fatalities. They also implemented a timely package of policies to mitigate the economic fallout of the pandemic. IMF financing under the RFI will support international reserves and help meet the budget financing needs for crisis mitigation. Mobilizing additional financing from multilateral and bilateral creditors will be essential to support the authorities’ policy efforts and preserve macroeconomic stability. The authorities remain committed to the objectives of the reform program supported by the Extended Fund Facility arrangement, which was approved by the Board in March. When the crisis abates, the priority will be resuming fiscal consolidation to place public debt on a declining path and pursuing reforms to strengthen the competitiveness of the Jordanian economy and to support inclusive growth and job creation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; emergency financing request; financing; growth potential; IMF lending tracker; IMF's Rapid Financing Instrument; request for a Rapid Financing Instrument; Arrears; Fiscal stance; Loans; Global; COVID-19
Cover IMF Working Papers
FinTech in Financial Inclusion: Machine Learning Applications in Assessing Credit Risk
Majid Bazarbash
Recent advances in digital technology and big data have allowed FinTech (financial technology) lending to emerge as a potentially promising solution to reduce the cost of credit and increase financial inclusion. However, machine learning (ML) methods that lie at the heart of FinTech credit have remained largely a black box for the nontechnical audience. This paper contributes to the literature by discussing potential strengths and weaknesses of ML-based credit assessment through (1) presenting core ideas and the most common techniques in ML for the nontechnical audience; and (2) discussing the fundamental challenges in credit risk analysis. FinTech credit has the potential to enhance financial inclusion and outperform traditional credit scoring by (1) leveraging nontraditional data sources to improve the assessment of the borrower’s track record; (2) appraising collateral value; (3) forecasting income prospects; and (4) predicting changes in general conditions. However, because of the central role of data in ML-based analysis, data relevance should be ensured, especially in situations when a deep structural change occurs, when borrowers could counterfeit certain indicators, and when agency problems arising from information asymmetry could not be resolved. To avoid digital financial exclusion and redlining, variables that trigger discrimination should not be used to assess credit rating.
Keywords:
WP; ML model; bears risk; machine learning technique; ML analysis; ML evaluation; FinTech Credit; Financial Inclusion; Machine Learning; Credit Risk Assessment; ML analyst; credit risk driver; FinTech credit company; credit scoring; supervised machine learning model; capital structure; borrower default; neural network; Credit risk; Credit; Credit ratings; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Jordan’s Request for an extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The economic growth of Jordan remains below potential. Unemployment is high, particularly for youth and women, and the refugee crisis is weighing on the economy and public finances. Real GDP growth is projected to increase to 2.8 percent in 2016, supported by lower oil prices relative to their 2014 peak, an accommodative monetary stance, and some recovery in private investment. In view of Jordan’s balance of payment needs, the policy actions already taken, and the comprehensive package of adjustment measures proposed by the authorities, the IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for an extended arrangement under the EFF.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; reform program; refugee; deficit; indirect cost; electricity company NEPCO; NEPCO; IMF quota; government balance; economic reform reform program; Syrian refugee; Government debt management; Fiscal consolidation; Loans; Global; Europe; Middle East; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Economic Impact of Selected Conflicts in the Middle East: What Can We Learn from the Past?
Miss Randa Sab
Using narrative-based country-case studies, war episodes in the Middle East were examined to assess their economic impact on conflict and neighboring economies. The paper found that conflicts led to a contraction in growth, higher inflation, large fiscal and current account deficits, loss of reserves, and a weakened financial system. Post-conflict recovery depended on the economic and institutional development of the country, economic structure, duration of the war, international engagement, and prevailing security conditions. The net economic impact on neighboring countries varied according to their initial economic conditions, number and income level of refugees they hosted, economic integration, and external assistance.
Keywords:
WP; Iraq; Kuwait; financial system; Lebanon; Conflict; post-conflict economic recovery; Middle East; debt settlement program; excess demand; inflation in Kuwait; free market; invasion of Iraq; Lebanon's banking system; country-case study methodology; Inflation; Current account deficits; Financial sector; International reserves; Exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Basel Capital Requirements and Credit Crunch in the MENA Region
Samy Ben Naceur
and
Ms. Magda E. Kandil
The 1988 Basel I Accord set the common requirements of bank capital to promote the soundness and stability of the international banking system. The agreement required banks to hold capital in proportion to their perceived credit risks, and this requirement may have caused a “credit crunch,” a significant reduction in the supply of credit. We investigate the direct link between the implementation of the Basel I Accord and lending activities, using a data set spanning annual observations covering 1989–2004 for banks in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia. The results provide clear support for a significant increase in credit growth following the implementation of capital regulations, in general. Despite higher capital adequacy ratios, banks expanded credit and asset growth. Credit growth appears to be driven by demand fluctuations attributed to real growth, cost of borrowing, and exchange rate risk. Overall, the effects of macroeconomic variables, in contrast to capital adequacy, appear to be more dominant in determining credit growth, regardless of the capital adequacy ratio, and regardless of variation across banks by nationality, ownership, and listing.
Keywords:
WP; capital regulation; government securities; banking sector; interest rate; capital requirement; credit crunch; Basel I Accord; lending behaviour; panel data models; bank regulator; investment strategy; bank shrinkage; bank-borrower relationship; bank portfolio; bank capital; loan-asset ratio; capital base; banks' holding; bank capital requirement; Capital adequacy requirements; Credit; Commercial banks; Loans; Basel Core Principles; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tunisie: Évaluation de la stabilité du système financier
International Monetary Fund
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; loan; regulation; Tunisia; bank-restructuring process; banks universal
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tunisia: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund
The Central Bank of Tunisia's (CBT) liquidity support contributed to rapid credit growth in Tunisia and an uptick in inflation. The Tunisian economy is expected to recover gradually. Banking sector vulnerabilities are much higher, and stress tests indicate that the banking sector may face large recapitalization needs. Improving financial intermediation efficiency, antimoney laundering, and combating the financing of terrorism is required. A comprehensive capital market reform is needed to support long-term investment. Banking sector reform should improve access to finance for individuals, and small and medium enterprises.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; loan; regulation; Tunisia; bank-restructuring process; banks universal; development bank; green-field bank; bank financing; rescheduling rate; bank intermediation; bank assets; bank performance; illiquid bank; headline inflation; troubled bank; State-owned banks; Commercial banks; Nonperforming loans; Liquidity; Loans; Europe
Cover IEO Annual Report 2011
IEO Annual Report 2011
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) was established by the IMF’s Executive Board in 2001. It provides objective and independent evaluation of issues related to the IMF. The IEO operates independently of IMF management and at arm’s length from the IMF Executive Board. For more information on the IEO’s activities, visit the IEO website: www.ieo-imf.org.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; evaluation; IEO evaluation; IMF surveillance; IMF performance; fungible budget; discretionary budget; Budget planning and preparation; International reserves; Financial sector; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; IEO recommendation; IMF implementation; IEO work program
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Drives the Performance of Selected MENA Banks? A Meta-Frontier Analysis
Samy Ben Naceur
,
Barbara Casu
, and
Hichem Ben-Khedhiri
This study examines the effect of financial-sector reform on bank performance in selected Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries in the period 1994 -2008. We evaluate bank efficiency in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Lebanon and Tunisia by means of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and we employ a meta-frontier approach to calculate efficiency scores in a cross-country setting. We then employ a second-stage regression to investigate the impact of institutional, financial, and bank specific variables on bank efficiency. Overall, the analysis shows that, despite similarities in the process of financial reforms undertaken in the five MENA countries, the observed efficiency levels of banks vary substantially across markets, with Morocco consistently outperforming the rest of the region.Differences in technology seem to be crucial in explaining efficiency differences. To foster banking sector performance, policies should be aimed at giving banks incentives to improve their risk management and portfolio management techniques. Improvements in the legal system and in the regulatory and supervisory bodies would also help to reduce inefficiency.
Keywords:
WP; efficiency score; technology ratio; bank efficiency; return on assets; DEA efficiency result