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Middle East and Central Asia > Jordan

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Personal Income Taxes in the Middle East and North Africa: Prospects and Possibilities
Mario Mansour
and
Eric M. Zolt
Personal income taxes (PITs) play little or no role in the Middle East and North Africa, often yielding less than 2 percent of GDP in revenue—with the exception of few North African countries. This paper examines how PITs have evolved in recent decades, and what they might look like in the next 20 years. Top marginal tax rates on labor and business income of individuals have declined substantially, a trend that mirrors reductions in advanced and developing economies. Taxation of passive capital income has changed very little, and the revenue intake from this source remains low throughout the region (less than 1 percent of GDP on average and concentrated in oil-importing non-fragile states). Social security contributions (SSC) have increased in importance in nearly all MENA countries, and some countries have introduced additional payroll taxes. The combination of reduced marginal tax rates, light taxation of income from capital and business activities, and increase of SSC, have resulted in income tax systems that create disincentives to work and incentives for informality, and contribute little to government revenue and income redistribution. Given differences in economic and political structures, demographics, and starting points, the path to PIT/SSC reforms will vary across the region. Countries with relatively mature PIT/SSC systems, where revenue performance has improved in the past two decades, will increasingly need to balance the revenue and equity objectives against effciency objectives (in particular labor market incentives and infromality). Countries with no PITs will have to weigh whether a consumption tax/SSC system that mimic a flat tax on labor income is sufficient to diversify revenue away from oil and whether to adopt PITs to address rising income and wealth inequality. Finally, fragile states, who face more political volatility and weaker fiscal institutions, will have to focus on simplicity of tax design and collection to be able to raise revenue from PITs.
Keywords:
Personal income taxes; social security contributions; payroll taxes; fragile and conflict states; Middle East and North Africa; Gulf-Cooperation Council; SSC reform; SSC system; revenue performance; PIT objective; PIT revenue; Personal income tax; Income tax systems; Income; Income and capital gains taxes; Corporate income tax; North Africa; Middle East; East Africa; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Bjoern Rother
,
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
,
Davide Lombardo
,
Risto Herrala
,
Ms. Priscilla Toffano
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
, and
Ms. Karina Manasseh
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Keywords:
SDN; conflict country; refugee crisis; central bank; economic activity; country authorities; Middle East and North Africa; conflicts; refugees; macroeconomic policy; economic spillovers; post-conflict reconstruction; international community; MENA region; MENA country; physical capital; financial support; IMF staff calculation; growth potential; MENA conflict country; Labor markets; Infrastructure; Inflation; Middle East; North Africa; Global; East Africa; Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
Mali: Achieving Strong and Inclusive Growth with Macroeconomic Stability
Mr. Christian Josz
This note studies Mali’s performance in poverty reduction by analyzing household data from surveys in 2001, 2006 and 2009–10. Mali’s share of poor households has decreased substantially during the past decade. While the reduction in headcount poverty was more pronounced from 2001–06 when all sectors of Mali’s economy grew at a similar pace, economic growth was mainly beneficial to the very poor during 2006–10 when agricultural production boomed.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; current account; Malian authorities; banking sector; central bank; balance of payments; price band; retail price; competitiveness indicator; housing bank Banque de l'Habitat du Mali; business environment; import price; Banque de l'Habitat du Mali; price fluctuation; oil price; Oil prices; Inflation; Fuel prices; Consumption; Energy subsidies; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; current account norm; trade elasticity; financial market; infrastructure bottleneck; world price increase
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Finance and Growth Nexus Re-Examined: Do All Countries Benefit Equally?
Mr. Adolfo Barajas
,
Mr. Ralph Chami
, and
Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi
A large theoretical and empirical literature has focused on the impact of financial deepening on economic growth throughout the world. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating whether this impact differs across regions, income levels, and types of economy. Using a rich dataset for 150 countries for the period 1975–2005, dynamic panel estimation results suggest that the beneficial effect of financial deepening on economic growth in fact displays measurable heterogeneity; it is generally smaller in oil exporting countries; in certain regions, such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and in lower-income countries. Further analysis suggests that these differences might be driven by regulatory/supervisory characteristics and related to differences in the ability to provide widespread access to financial services.
Keywords:
WP; MENA country; private sector; banking system; dependent variable; Growth; Financial Development; Inclusive Growth; Financial Access; MENA region; credit-GDP ratio; MENA growth underperformance; x Middle East and North Africa; x GCC; GCC grouping; MENA depth; banking sector; number of observation; bank financing; oil GDP; Credit; Oil; Personal income; Stock markets; Commercial banks; Central Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; North Africa; Middle East; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues Paper focuses on economic condition, energy subsidies, and oil prices in Jordan. Energy price subsidies pose a serious fiscal risk in the present context of increasing and volatile international prices. The macroeconomic situation in Jordan is closely tied to that of other countries in the Middle East. From a policy perspective, macroeconomic and structural policies in Jordan should be conducted in such a way that the vulnerability of the country to sudden stops or reversals of external income flows is reduced.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Jordan; policy stance; investment; energy price subsidy; oil price booms; IMF staff estimate; physical capital accumulation; Jordan's ranking; Public investment spending; Capital accumulation; Energy subsidies; Reserve positions; Energy pricing; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central Asia; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia
Mr. Yasser Abdih
,
Mr. Ralph Chami
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
, and
Mr. Adolfo Barajas
This paper identifies a remittances channel that transmits exogenous shocks, such as business cycles in remittance-sending countries, to the public finances of remittance-receiving countries. Using panel data for remittance-receiving countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, three types of results emerge. First, remittances appear to be strongly procyclical vis-à-vis sending country income. Second, remittances tend to be spent on consumption of both imported and domestically produced goods, rather than on investment. Third, shocks in the sending countries are transmitted via remittances to the public finances - specifically, tax revenues - of receiving countries. In the case of the 2009 global downturn, this impact was particularly strong for several countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, whereas in the subsequent recovery in 2010 virtually all receiving countries benefitted from an upturn in remittance-driven tax revenues.
Keywords:
WP; remittance inflow; real GDP; remittance determination equation; business cycle; remittance-recipient country; Remittances; Private demand; Tax revenues; Instrumental variables; Panel data; instrumentation equation; remittance channel; remittance flow; remittances model; remittance equation; remittance effect; remittance-source region; remittance ratio; Income; Private consumption; Consumption; Global; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons From Jordan
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
and
Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes
This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income?the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers?from major oil-exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be one of the main long-run drivers of real output. Using quarterly data between 1979 and 2009 on core macroeconomic variables for Jordan and a number of key foreign variables, we identify two long-run relationships: an output equation as predicted by theory and an equation linking foreign and domestic inflation rates. It is shown that real output in the long run is shaped by: (i) oil prices through their impact on external income and in turn on capital accumulation, and (ii) technological transfers through foreign output. The empirical analysis of the paper confirms the hypothesis that a large share of Jordan's output volatility can be associated with fluctuations in net income received from abroad. External factors, however, cannot be relied upon to provide similar growth stimuli in the future, and therefore it will be important to diversify the sources of growth in order to achieve a high and sustained level of income.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; price boom; Growth models; long-run relations; Jordanian economy; remittances; foreign direct investment; oil price shocks; foreign output and inflation shocks and error correcting relations; output equation; co-trending restriction; test statistics; external income; error correction term; Fisher equation; error correction term of the long-run output equation; least squares; LR statistic; error-correction equation; oil income; multiple correlation coefficient; Oil prices; Personal income; Inflation; Oil; Purchasing power parity; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Assessing the General Data Dissemination System-What Has Been Accomplished After Ten Years, and Where Do We Go From Here?
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the role of the GDDS in helping developing and emerging market countries improve the dissemination of macroeconomic and sociodemographic data. It considers whether the GDDS, in the way it was designed about a decade ago and enhanced along the way, has fulfilled its purpose. Further, it considers whether the GDDS remains relevant to its current and prospective members, given ongoing global integration, increasing emphasis on transparency and governance mechanisms, and increased reliance on the Internet and electronic data transmission.
Keywords:
PP; GDDS participant; GDDS country; data category; SDDS requirement; data dissemination; GDDS recommendation; participants meeting SDDS requirements; Data dissemination; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Consumer price indexes; Middle East and Central Asia; Africa; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances: How Do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP At Home?
Mr. Serdar Sayan
Workers' remittances are often argued to have a tendency to move countercyclically with the GDP in recipient countries since migrant workers are expected to remit more during down cycles of economic activity back home. Yet, how much to remit is a complex decision involving other factors, and different variables driving remittance behavior are differently affected by the state of economic activity over the business cycle. This paper investigates the behavior of workers' remittances flows into 12 developing countries over their respective business cycles during 1976-2003 and finds that countercyclicality of receipts is not commonly observed across these countries.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; role remittances play; remittance behavior; spending; workers’ remittances; business cycles; consumption vs. investment motive; remittance receipt; remittances cycle; remittances series; workers' remittance; Bangladesh's remittances receipt; remittance flow; Remittances; Migrant labor; Income; Procyclicality; Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Data Module—Update
International Monetary Fund
The report highlights the actions taken by the authorities to address the issues raised by the 2002 Data Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) mission for all macroeconomics statistics included in the ROSC exercise, namely national accounts, price, government finance, monetary, and balance-of-payments statistics. It also analyzes the authorities' plans for further improving the quality of the statistics, and reviews Jordan’s current data dissemination practices against the requirements of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ROSC mission; quality dimensions; data provider; earning data; SDDS requirements; Balance of payments statistics; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Government finance statistics; Monetary statistics