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Europe > Iceland

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 10 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Icelandic economy has shown remarkable resilience and rebounded quickly from the multiple shocks in recent years. The economy is currently operating well above potential, which, together with high import and house prices, has pushed inflation significantly above target, and contributed to external imbalances. While growth is expected to moderate to 3.2 percent in 2023 and 1.9 percent in 2024 on headwinds from abroad and tight macroeconomic policies, the medium-term outlook is favorable. In the near term, policy tightening coupled with headwinds from the deteriorating terms of trade will dampen domestic demand and reduce imbalances, though private consumption growth is likely to remain robust on a further drawdown of household savings and strong employment growth supported by continued immigration. Banks could face funding pressures if pension funds were to re-direct their investments from domestic to foreign markets.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; headline inflation; monetary policy horizon; deteriorating inflation outlook; cash flow; policy tightening; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Pension spending; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2022 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Iceland has weathered recent shocks to the economy relatively well. Well-designed policy measures and a solid health system eased the impact of the pandemic, allowing real gross domestic product and employment to recover strongly. Robust domestic demand and favorable terms of trade boosted output growth to 4.3 percent in 2021, despite slower recovery in tourism. Growth is expected to remain moderate in 2022 and the medium term. Careful policy coordination is required to entrench the recovery, stem risks and rebuild buffers to pre-pandemic levels. Policies should mitigate the flaring-up in inflation, external imbalances, and house prices. Structural reforms should facilitate economic diversification and make the economy more resilient to shocks. Diversification efforts should focus on easing regulatory burdens on start-ups and spurring innovation by leveraging Iceland’s human capital and advanced digital infrastructure. The new collective wage agreement can also foster diversification and resilience through better alignment of wage and productivity growth.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; steering inflation; housing policy; data standard; rising prices; policy coordination; Inflation; Housing prices; Housing; Government finance statistics; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Icelandic economy has been severely affected by the pandemic. Sharp tourism contraction and containment measures caused real GDP to plummet by 6.6 percent in 2020. A modest recovery will take hold in 2021. Recovery prospects in the tourism sector depend on control of the epidemic and progress in global and domestic vaccine distribution, spelling a challenging outlook with possibly deep medium-term scarring. Fiscal policy should continue to support the economy for now. Policy buffers accumulated over the last decade provided space for a large fiscal support and accommodated substantial automatic stabilizers. Additional stimulus is planned in 2021 to address still large slack in the economy, mitigate scarring, and provide confidence in the event of downside risks. Medium-term policies should ensure that public debt is firmly on a downward path, while limiting the drag on growth.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; notification band; family support benefit; monetary policy effort; fiscal policy mix; COVID-19; Tourism; Government finance statistics; Financial statistics; Currency markets; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Technical Assistance Report—Improving the Quality of Fiscal and Public Debt Data (October 7-16, 2019)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
In response to a request from the Government of Kenya, an AFRITAC East (AFE) government finance statistics (GFS) technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, during October 7–16, 2019. The primary objective of the mission was to support staff in improving the quality of fiscal and public debt data for the general government and migration of the fiscal framework to Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) concepts to facilitate fiscal and debt policy analysis for improved public financial management. This is a continuation of the ongoing efforts in capacity development aimed at supporting member countries to adopt the GFSM 2014 and the Public Sector Debt Statistics Guide (PSDSG 2011).
Keywords:
IMF PSDS Questionnaire; appendix XI; appendix I. Implementation of recommendation; BCG statement; TA mission; Government finance statistics; Public sector; Fiscal governance; Total expenditures; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
UnFEAR: Unsupervised Feature Extraction Clustering with an Application to Crisis Regimes Classification
Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau
We introduce unFEAR, Unsupervised Feature Extraction Clustering, to identify economic crisis regimes. Given labeled crisis and non-crisis episodes and the corresponding features values, unFEAR uses unsupervised representation learning and a novel mode contrastive autoencoder to group episodes into time-invariant non-overlapping clusters, each of which could be identified with a different regime. The likelihood that a country may experience an econmic crisis could be set equal to its cluster crisis frequency. Moreover, unFEAR could serve as a first step towards developing cluster-specific crisis prediction models tailored to each crisis regime.
Keywords:
clustering; unsupervised feature extraction; autoencoder; deep learning; biased label problem; crisis prediction; WP; crisis frequency; crisis observation; crisis risk; crisis data points; machine learning; Early warning systems; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Iceland is experiencing an economic slowdown that has reduced overheating concerns. Tourism growth has decelerated and the króna has stopped appreciating. Demand management has become easier, allowing the authorities to focus on medium-term priorities, including infrastructure, healthcare, education, and the environment. Risks, however, have become more evident. High fuel prices and other factors are challenging the airline business; world trade tensions are escalating; and the United Kingdom—a vital trading partner—is not yet assured of a smooth EU exit. Icelandic policies thus need to focus on further increasing resilience to shocks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; competition authority; staff appraisal; baseline rojections; increase government investment; IMF staff projection; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; tourism growth; foreign currency; Current account surpluses; Income; Government finance statistics; Fiscal stance; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Risk and Information for International Capital Flows: New Evidence from the SDDS
Ms. Yuko Hashimoto
and
Mr. Konstantin Wacker
In this paper we investigate whether better information about the macroeconomic environment of an economy has a positive impact on its capital inflows, namely portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI). The purpose of our study is to explicitly quantify information asymmetries by compliance with the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). For FDI, we find statistically significant and robust support for this hypothesis: SDDS subscription increased inflows by an economically relevant magnitude of about 60 percent. We also find evidence of aversion against political and macroeconomic risk as determinants of portfolio and FDI flows anduse a non-parametric test for spatial correlation in the residual of capital flows.
Keywords:
WP; FDI inflow; interest rate; emerging market; FDI flow; determinants of capital flows; information; panel data; risk; SDDS; IMF; FDI; portfolio investment; spatial econometrics; FDI-agglomeration literature; FDI literature; SDDS subscription; portfolio flow; Foreign direct investment; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Capital flows; Exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Some Algebra of Fiscal Transparency: How Accounting Devices Work and How to Reveal Them
Mr. Timothy C Irwin
Accounting devices that artificially reduce the measured fiscal deficit can be analyzed as transactions involving unrecognized assets and liabilities. Different accounting systems recognize different sets of assets and liabilities and are thus vulnerable to different sets of devices. Some devices can be revealed by moving progressively from cash accounting to modified accrual accounting to full accrual accounting. Revealing all would require the publication of extended fiscal accounts in which all future cash flows give rise to assets or liabilities.
Keywords:
WP; surplus; present value; accounting device; balance sheet; government accounting; budget deficits; accounting devices; deficit device; targeted surplus; recognized assets; accounting rule; Fiscal accounting and reporting; Accrual accounting; Currencies; Financial statements; Government finance statistics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module
International Monetary Fund
This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Data Module for Iceland highlights Data Module, response by the authorities, and detailed assessments using the data quality assessment framework. Iceland’s macroeconomic statistics are generally of high quality and are adequate to conduct effective surveillance. There is a high degree of quality awareness among Iceland’s statistical managers. There are some deficiencies in the periodicity and timeliness of the producer price index, and in the timeliness of central government finance statistics.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; central bank; sc; central government; staff resource; balance of payments; ROSC exercise; ROSC recommendation; commitment to confidentiality; Consumer price indexes; Balance of payments statistics; Producer price indexes; Monetary statistics; Data collection; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Using the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001) Statistical Framework to Strengthen Fiscal Analysis in the Fund
International Monetary Fund
This paper responds to the Board’s call for greater consistency in fiscal reporting in line with GFSM 2001. In this context, the paper summarizes the framework, reviews the implementation process of the GFSM 2001 framework by member countries and Fund staff, and proposes pilot studies. It seeks the support of the Board for gradual adoption of the framework as the basis for fiscal analysis in Fund staff reports.
Keywords:
PP; fixed capital; opening balance; accrual basis; staff report; net lending; closing balance; net incurrence; net acquisition; acquisition of financial assets; Government finance statistics; Financial statements; Accrual accounting; Fiscal reporting; Africa