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This Global Financial Stability Note examines the growth of the pension fund sector and the potential financial stability implications. Historically, pension funds have been seen as a contributor to financial stability because of their long-term and well-diversified liabilities. However, the sector has undergone significant structural shifts accelerated by a prolonged period of low interest rates, increasing its exposure to traditional risks while introducing emerging risks; this is reflected in growing intra-financial sector interconnectedness and exposure to long-term sovereign bonds. The recent transition to higher interest rates should be positive for the pension sector, albeit its pace and abruptness has been associated with liquidity stress and contagion risks in some countries.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note focuses on cyber and operational resilience, supervision and oversight in Iceland. The Icelandic financial sector has not experienced seriously disruptive cyber-attacks or operational issues in recent years, but threats are growing. Iceland’s dependence on international connectivity for both debit and credit card systems introduces a significant vulnerability into the payment system. There is no dedicated cyber security strategy for the finance sector. Operational risk experts in the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) are experienced and well regarded by financial institutions, but more resources are needed to provide adequate coverage of this increasingly important area. The supervision of financial institutions’ cybersecurity is highly dependent on self-assessments by the regulated entities themselves and independent reviews carried out by third parties. CBI should regularly revise the list of critical operations and critical service providers for internal use and for presentation to the Financial Stability Committee and Financial Stability Council. CBI is encouraged to enhance its incident dashboard by summarizing cyber incidents and examining trends.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note highlights macroprudential policy in Iceland. Macroprudential policy in Iceland recently has centered on the property market, given the importance of this market for households’ balance sheets, banks’ loan portfolios, and the potential systemic risks. The Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) has a strong institutional framework for macroprudential policy, assuring the willingness to act. The macroprudential framework also promotes the ability to act promptly. As the financial supervisor, the CBI has control over prudential tools; it may exercise its power as necessary to ensure financial stability. The institutional arrangements encourage effective cooperation and coordination with other institutions. CBI surveillance and systemic risk assessment rely on comprehensive quantitative information and constructive dialogue with the industry as well as on various models and stress tests. The strong analytical capacity for systemic risk monitoring can be further enhanced by filling data gaps and enriching models. While recent measures go in the right direction, the authorities should stand ready to take further actions if vulnerabilities persist.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper for Iceland presents Detailed Assessment on Basel Core Principles (BCP) for Effective Banking Supervision. The Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs/parliamentary budgetary processes that is a legacy funding structure from the prior FjĂ¡rmĂ¡laeftirlit hamper Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI) ability to access funding for banking regulation and supervision. Key legislative amendments have been enacted in the banking laws to ensure Iceland’s compliance with the European Union’s regulatory framework for banking supervision. CBI implements a conservative approach to both capital and liquidity requirements, resulting in highly capitalized and adequate liquidity levels for banks. CBI/ Financial Supervisory Authority’s current complement of banking supervisors, including risk specialists is strong, however a few risk areas need augmentation. CBI’s banking supervisory and regulatory framework pertaining to Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) requirements is considered adequate. CBI has made great efforts to build up the area of expertise in AML/CFT to implement a risk based supervisory assessment model for banks and has carried out deep on-site inspections to assure itself of the effectiveness of bank’s risk management practices regarding compliance with applicable AML/CFT legislative and supervisory requirements.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note on Iceland presents analyses management and supervision of climate-related financial risks in the banking sector. The Icelandic authorities are committed to addressing climate change issues and reaching ambitious objectives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Domestic coordination with the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) should be enhanced to support adequate consideration of climate-related financial risks within the financial sector. CBI should as soon as possible address the data quality and availability issues on climate-related financial risks. CBI has started to incorporate climate-related financial risks within the macroprudential surveillance and supervisory processes. The intensity and thoroughness of systematic supervision of climate-related financial risks within the banking sector should be gradually increased. In addition, banks should fully incorporate climate-related financial risks into their risk management frameworks in addition to their commendable efforts toward transparency. Finally, CBI should determine whether banks’ capital and liquidity buffers are adequate to cover climate-related financial risks.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note analyses the key aspects of the regulatory and supervisory regime for pension funds in Iceland. Pension funds in Iceland play a vital role in the domestic financial sector, acting as investors and lenders. This Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) reviews recent developments and the structure of the Icelandic pension fund sector. This technical note provides context on the Icelandic pension system, focusing in particular on the compulsory occupational scheme in Pillar II, the most important pillar of the system. The pension fund sector is large, well developed, and highly interconnected with the domestic financial system, mainly through exposures toward banks and domestic investment funds. A separate technical note summarizes the results of the risk analysis carried out for the pension fund sector and elaborates more on current market risk sensitivities. The governance and internal controls framework for pension funds is not aligned with the systemic role of the sector, and the underlying rules in the Pension Fund Act pre-date the corresponding provisions for other financial sectors. The Financial Supervisory Authority has adopted a risk-based and forward-looking supervisory model, however there is no minimum frequency set for on-site inspections. The FSAP recommends a strengthening of the legislative framework, especially regarding governance, internal controls and outsourcing.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents Iceland’s Financial System Stability Assessment. Iceland has made solid progress since the 2008 crisis and the last Financial Sector Assessment Program update in restructuring banks and implementing important financial sector reforms. It has transposed many EU Directives and Regulations into national law, improving the regulatory, supervisory, and crisis management frameworks. Banks are resilient to solvency stress under the adverse scenario but are sensitive to interest rate changes. Liquidity stress can generally be handled but there are vulnerabilities. The value of pension funds’ assets declines substantially in the adverse scenario, reducing future pension values materially. Iceland’s robust financial system has weathered the impact of the coronavirus disease pandemic well, owing to substantially improved macro-financial frameworks since the global financial crisis.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Abstract

The 2019 Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide (2019 Guide) includes new indicators to expand the coverage of the financial sector, including other financial intermediaries, money market funds, insurance corporations, pension funds, nonfinancial corporations, and households. In all, the 2019 Guide recommends the compilation of 50 FSIs—13 of them new. Additions such as new capital, liquidity and asset quality metrics, and concentration and distribution measures will serve to enhance the forward-looking aspect of FSIs and contribute to increase policy focus on stability of the financial system.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Iceland is experiencing an economic slowdown that has reduced overheating concerns. Tourism growth has decelerated and the krĂ³na has stopped appreciating. Demand management has become easier, allowing the authorities to focus on medium-term priorities, including infrastructure, healthcare, education, and the environment. Risks, however, have become more evident. High fuel prices and other factors are challenging the airline business; world trade tensions are escalating; and the United Kingdom—a vital trading partner—is not yet assured of a smooth EU exit. Icelandic policies thus need to focus on further increasing resilience to shocks.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Iceland’s continued real GDP growth, driven by tourism. Growth reached 7.2 percent in 2016 and is projected at almost 6 percent in 2017 before tapering to about 2.5 percent over the medium term. Bank credit to the nonfinancial private sector remains muted, growing only 4.3 percent in 2016, but it is expected to pick up. Thus far, growth has been driven not by leverage but by exports, private consumption, and investment. Iceland’s current account surplus is projected to shrink modestly over time, with some export sectors suffering while others thrive.