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Europe > Iceland

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Icelandic economy has been severely affected by the pandemic. Sharp tourism contraction and containment measures caused real GDP to plummet by 6.6 percent in 2020. A modest recovery will take hold in 2021. Recovery prospects in the tourism sector depend on control of the epidemic and progress in global and domestic vaccine distribution, spelling a challenging outlook with possibly deep medium-term scarring. Fiscal policy should continue to support the economy for now. Policy buffers accumulated over the last decade provided space for a large fiscal support and accommodated substantial automatic stabilizers. Additional stimulus is planned in 2021 to address still large slack in the economy, mitigate scarring, and provide confidence in the event of downside risks. Medium-term policies should ensure that public debt is firmly on a downward path, while limiting the drag on growth.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; notification band; family support benefit; monetary policy effort; fiscal policy mix; COVID-19; Tourism; Government finance statistics; Financial statistics; Currency markets; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper analyzes the explosion of tourism in Iceland, which has surged above all expectations. The number of tourists has almost quadrupled since the Eyjafjallajökull eruptions in 2010, establishing tourism at the heart of the economy. Tourists do not seem to be driven mainly by rising incomes at home, nor have they been deterred by rising costs on the back of króna appreciation—which leaves Iceland’s tourism boom largely unexplained by standard econometric models. Instead, Iceland’s natural wonders, welcoming atmosphere, general safety, improving connectedness, and social media outreach have drawn in visitors. Going forward, tourism is likely to grow less rapidly than in recent years, yet remain at strong levels.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Iceland; bank credit growth; post GFC recovery; tourism competitiveness report; NRIR estimate; LWPRF model; macroeconomic variable; Bank credit; Tourism; Inflation; Real interest rates; Credit; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Iceland’s continued real GDP growth, driven by tourism. Growth reached 7.2 percent in 2016 and is projected at almost 6 percent in 2017 before tapering to about 2.5 percent over the medium term. Bank credit to the nonfinancial private sector remains muted, growing only 4.3 percent in 2016, but it is expected to pick up. Thus far, growth has been driven not by leverage but by exports, private consumption, and investment. Iceland’s current account surplus is projected to shrink modestly over time, with some export sectors suffering while others thrive.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fiscal policy; IMF staff projection; economy; inflation expectation; exchange rate volatility; prudent fiscal policy; CBI transactions; inflation prospect; Tourism; Current account; Inflation; Global