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Europe > Iceland

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Iceland highlights that following an impressive recovery from shocks in recent years, tight monetary and fiscal policies have slowed domestic demand growth, strengthened the current account, and started to lower inflationary pressures. A coordinated tightening of macroeconomic policies has successfully narrowed domestic and external imbalances built up during the post-pandemic period. Appropriately tight macroeconomic policies are expected to dampen economic growth in the near term, while medium-term growth prospects are favorable. Reactivation of the fiscal rules in 2026 presents an opportunity to revisit their design to ensure fiscal policy is both sustainable and contributes to macroeconomic stability. An application of the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework to Iceland suggests some benefits of foreign exchange interventions during times of stress. Structural policies should focus on gradually reducing state involvement in collective wage bargaining, accelerating the green transition, and further diversifying the economy.
Keywords:
monetary policy stance; holdings of SDR; calibrating Policy; inflation expectation; EU regulations-credit bureaus; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Housing prices; Fiscal rules; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Pension Fund Regulation and Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note analyses the key aspects of the regulatory and supervisory regime for pension funds in Iceland. Pension funds in Iceland play a vital role in the domestic financial sector, acting as investors and lenders. This Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) reviews recent developments and the structure of the Icelandic pension fund sector. This technical note provides context on the Icelandic pension system, focusing in particular on the compulsory occupational scheme in Pillar II, the most important pillar of the system. The pension fund sector is large, well developed, and highly interconnected with the domestic financial system, mainly through exposures toward banks and domestic investment funds. A separate technical note summarizes the results of the risk analysis carried out for the pension fund sector and elaborates more on current market risk sensitivities. The governance and internal controls framework for pension funds is not aligned with the systemic role of the sector, and the underlying rules in the Pension Fund Act pre-date the corresponding provisions for other financial sectors. The Financial Supervisory Authority has adopted a risk-based and forward-looking supervisory model, however there is no minimum frequency set for on-site inspections. The FSAP recommends a strengthening of the legislative framework, especially regarding governance, internal controls and outsourcing.
Keywords:
pension fund regulation; finance disclosure regulation; insurance supervisor; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; pension supervisor; Pension spending; Financial stability assessment; Pensions; Internal controls; Pension fund supervision; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights quantitative tightening (QT) by the European Central Bank (ECB). It uses evidence from the literature on the impact of central bank bond purchases and sales on bond yields, and the monetary policy stance, to outline a roadmap for reducing the Euro system’s bond holdings. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The current tightening cycle provides an opportunity to revisit the ECB’s balance sheet policy. With inflation running above target, the monetary accommodation provided by the ECB’s bond holding is no longer necessary. The paper concludes that the ECB’s short term policy rates should be the main choice for adapting the monetary policy stance to changing circumstances and QT should proceed in a gradual, predictable manner as outlined by the ECB.
Keywords:
ECB Policy rate; ECB balance sheet; app portfolio; C. Policy consideration; bond supply net of ECB; Financial statements; Unconventional monetary policies; Central bank policy rate; Monetary stance; Securities
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Euro Area; IMF Country Report No. 23/264
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the euro area economy has shown remarkable resilience in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the largest terms of trade shock in several decades, thanks to a swift policy response and a strong rebound in contact-intensive services. Looking ahead, growth is expected to pick up gradually throughout 2023 and 2024, supported by a recovery in real incomes in the context of continued tight labor market conditions, a further easing of supply constraints, and firmer external demand, even as financial conditions continue to tighten. While headline inflation has fallen sharply recently after reaching record high levels, core inflation is proving more persistent. As tight financial conditions restrain demand and supply shocks dissipate further, inflation is set to decline further but is expected to remain elevated for an extended period. Renewed supply shocks, which could result from an escalation of the war in Ukraine and a related increase of commodity prices, or a further intensification of geoeconomic fragmentation, would also push up inflation and hurt growth. On the upside, the economy could again prove more resilient than expected, especially amid a still large stock of excess savings.
Keywords:
Euro area headline inflation; inflation expectation; EU climate investment fund; EU AML authority; EU institution; EU bank; core inflation; EU economy; Inflation; Energy prices; Fiscal stance; Monetary tightening; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Icelandic economy has shown remarkable resilience and rebounded quickly from the multiple shocks in recent years. The economy is currently operating well above potential, which, together with high import and house prices, has pushed inflation significantly above target, and contributed to external imbalances. While growth is expected to moderate to 3.2 percent in 2023 and 1.9 percent in 2024 on headwinds from abroad and tight macroeconomic policies, the medium-term outlook is favorable. In the near term, policy tightening coupled with headwinds from the deteriorating terms of trade will dampen domestic demand and reduce imbalances, though private consumption growth is likely to remain robust on a further drawdown of household savings and strong employment growth supported by continued immigration. Banks could face funding pressures if pension funds were to re-direct their investments from domestic to foreign markets.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; headline inflation; monetary policy horizon; deteriorating inflation outlook; cash flow; policy tightening; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Pension spending; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Effective Fiscal-Monetary Interactions in Severe Recessions
Mr. Jiaqian Chen
,
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
,
Carlos Goncalves
,
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
,
Martina Hengge
,
Zoltan Jakab
, and
Jesper Lindé
The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent need for policy support have called the traditional separation between fiscal and monetary policies into question. Based on simulations of an open economy DSGE model calibrated to emerging and advance economies and case study evidence, the analysis shows when constraints are binding a more integrated approach of looking at policies can lead to a better policy mix and ultimately better macroeconomic outcomes under certain circumstances. Nonetheless, such an approach entails risks, necessitating a clear assessment of each country’s circumstances as well as safeguards to protect the credibility of the existing institutional framework.
Keywords:
monetary policy rate; government spending hike; recession scenario; rate in Botswana; hike in liquidity trap; open economy; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Fiscal stimulus; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Iceland analyzes housing market risks and housing affordability. House prices in Iceland have increased markedly since the onset of the coronavirus disease-pandemic, with signs that the valuations have exceeded macro fundamentals and long-term trends. Overvaluation has important implications for macroeconomic and financial stability, and housing affordability. House price cycles seem to be closely linked with the business cycle, indicating an amplification risk in the event of price correction. Thus, well calibrated and coordinated policies are crucial to navigate the house price cycle, minimize adverse feedbacks, and reduce affordability risk. IMF’s quantitative analysis examines the interplay between house prices and related factors. The ongoing monetary policy tightening cycle should help address Iceland’s house price pressures. Further macroprudential tightening through binding and effective borrower-based measures could help contain systemic risks and create further buffers in the financial sector. In the medium term, focusing on structural measures that reduce construction costs and increase supply by eliminating red-tape and reducing the period for obtaining building permits is likely to have the highest pay-off.
Keywords:
housing affordability; D. containing housing market; C. informing housing market policy; Energy exchange transition; I. carbon absorption; Housing prices; Greenhouse gas emissions; Carbon tax; Housing; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Icelandic economy has been severely affected by the pandemic. Sharp tourism contraction and containment measures caused real GDP to plummet by 6.6 percent in 2020. A modest recovery will take hold in 2021. Recovery prospects in the tourism sector depend on control of the epidemic and progress in global and domestic vaccine distribution, spelling a challenging outlook with possibly deep medium-term scarring. Fiscal policy should continue to support the economy for now. Policy buffers accumulated over the last decade provided space for a large fiscal support and accommodated substantial automatic stabilizers. Additional stimulus is planned in 2021 to address still large slack in the economy, mitigate scarring, and provide confidence in the event of downside risks. Medium-term policies should ensure that public debt is firmly on a downward path, while limiting the drag on growth.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; notification band; family support benefit; monetary policy effort; fiscal policy mix; COVID-19; Tourism; Government finance statistics; Financial statistics; Currency markets; Global; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Traction
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This paper presents traction as a multidimensional concept and discusses a comprehensive and complementary set of approaches to attempt to measure it based on the Fund’s value added to policy dialogue and formulation and public debate in member countries.
Keywords:
article IV advice; fund policy advice; fund advice; policy dialogue; IMF's transparency policy; COVID-19; Income; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Financial sector stability; Machine learning; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies. Uzbekistan entered the COVID-19 crisis with relatively strong macro-economic fundamentals.
Keywords:
Policy discussion; government transparency; Policy recommendation; IMF's transparency policy; macro-economic policies; Budget planning and preparation; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; COVID-19; Global