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Europe > Iceland

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Insolvency Prospects Among Small-and-Medium-Sized Enterprises in Advanced Economies: Assessment and Policy Options
Mr. Federico J Diez
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Jiayue Fan
,
Jose M Garrido
,
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
,
Chiara Maggi
,
Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
, and
Mr. Nicola Pierri
The COVID-19 pandemic has increased insolvency risks, especially among small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are vastly overrepresented in hard-hit sectors. Without government intervention, even firms that are viable a priori could end up being liquidated—particularly in sectors characterized by labor-intensive technologies, threatening both macroeconomic and social stability. This staff discussion note assesses the impact of the pandemic on SME insolvency risks and policy options to address them. It quantifies the impact of weaker aggregate demand, changes in sectoral consumption patterns, and lockdowns on firm balance sheets and estimates the impact of a range of policy options, for a large sample of SMEs in (mostly) advanced economies.
Keywords:
Insolvency; Bankruptcy; “Quasi” Equity Injections; Small- and medium-size enterprises; COVID-19; insolvent firm; cash position; equity injection; illiquid firm; firm exit; cash flow; Solvency; Small and medium enterprises; Stocks; Financial statements; Southern Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Portfolio Inflows Eclipsing Banking Inflows: Alternative Facts?
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
and
Mr. Gee Hee Hong
Superficial examination of aggregate gross cross-border capital inflow data suggests that there was no substitution between portfolio inflows and bank loans in recent years. However, our novel analysis of disaggregate inflows (both by types of instrument and borrower) shows interesting heterogeneity. There has been substitution of bank loans for portfolio debt securities not only in the case of corporate and sovereign borrowers in advanced countries, but also sovereign borrowers in emerging countries. In the case of corporate borrowers in emerging markets, the relationship corresponds to complementarity across types of gross capital inflows, especially during periods of positive capital gross inflows after the global financial crisis. A large part of these patterns does not seem to be driven by a common phenomenon across countries associated with the global financial cycle, but rather by country-specific factors.
Keywords:
WP; capital flows; portfolio inflows; bank inflows; global financial cycle; portfolio debt; loan inflow; AE corporate; borrower type; investment loan; factor loading; debt inflow; debt optimization operation; Loans; Capital inflows; Securities; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Financial Market Spillovers: The Role of Portfolio Diversification, Trade, Home Bias, and Concentration
Yoko Shinagawa
This paper defines financial market spillovers as the comovement between two countries’ financial markets and analyzes financial market spillovers over the period 2001-12 through four channels: bilateral portfolio investment, bilateral trade, home bias, and country concentration. The paper finds that, if a country has a large amount of bilateral portfolio exposure in another country, these two countries’ comovement of bond yields are large. Also, countries’ geographical preferences impact financial spillovers; if a country has a stronger home bias, the country could have less spillovers from foreign financial markets. A policy implication from this result is that, if countries become less home-biased and have a greater amount of portfolio investment assets, they should strengthen prudential regulations to mitigate against rising risks of financial spillovers (or risk greater volatility owing to comovement with foreign markets).
Keywords:
WP; market; asset holding; Financial Spillover; Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS); Home Bias; financial market spillover; market contagion; correlation vis-à-vis; heightened market instability; portfolio inflow; Spillovers; Portfolio investment; Stock markets; Stocks; Securities; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers of Domestic Shocks: Will They Counteract the “Great Moderation”?
Mr. Ashoka Mody
and
Ms. Alina Carare
Even prior to the extreme volatility just observed, output growth volatility-following protracted decline-was flattening or mildly rising in some countries. More widespread was an increasing tendency from the mid-1990s for shocks in one country to transmit rapidly to other countries, creating the potential for heightened global volatility. The higher sensitivity to foreign shocks, in turn, appears related to stepped-up vertical specialization associated with the integration of emerging markets in international trade. Increased international spillovers call for stronger ex post coordination mechanisms when shocks are large but the best ex ante prevention strategy probably is sensible national policies.
Keywords:
WP; global economy; GDP ratio; trade share
Cover IMF Working Papers
International R&D Spillovers and Institutions
Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister
,
Mr. David T. Coe
, and
Mr. Elhanan Helpman
The empirical analysis in "International R&D Spillovers" (Coe and Helpman, 1995) is first revisited by applying modern panel cointegration estimation techniques to an expanded data set that we have constructed for the purpose of this study. The new estimates confirm the key results reported in Coe and Helpman about the impact of domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks on TFP. In addition, we show that domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks have measurable impacts on TFP even after controlling for the impact of human capital. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to include institutional variables, such as legal origin and patent protection, in order to allow for parameter heterogeneity based on a country's institutional characteristics. The results suggest that institutional differences are important determinants of total factor productivity and that they impact the degree of R&D spillovers.
Keywords:
WP; R&D capital; estimation technique; group estimates give; time series
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Given its small size and openness, the Icelandic economy has been subject to large shocks. Systematic coordination of monetary and fiscal policy, however, could help improve the inflation-output variability trade-off. The fiscal rule is designed to simultaneously ensure a consistently countercyclical fiscal stance and achieve a stable public debt target. The parameter values of the model are estimated from the quarterly data using a Bayesian technique. To assess how the introduction of the fiscal policy changes the inflation-output variability trade-off in Iceland, the paper compares the efficiency policy frontiers.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; reaction function; inflation-output variability trade-off; countercyclical fiscal policy; output-inflation variability tradeoff; Icelandic bank; Credit risk; Stocks; Loans; Inflation; Global