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Europe > Iceland

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Cover Policy Papers
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Traction
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This paper presents traction as a multidimensional concept and discusses a comprehensive and complementary set of approaches to attempt to measure it based on the Fund’s value added to policy dialogue and formulation and public debate in member countries.
Keywords:
article IV advice; fund policy advice; fund advice; policy dialogue; IMF's transparency policy; COVID-19; Income; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Financial sector stability; Machine learning; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America
Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
,
Sandra Lizarazo
,
Marika Santoro
,
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
, and
Mr. Mauricio Vargas
Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.
Keywords:
latin America; Commodity Cycles; Inequality; Poverty; Equilibrium Models; commodity exporter; commodity cycle; IMF staff calculation; commodity price boom; natural resource; commodity endowment; Headcount ratio; poverty in Latin America; Income inequality; Income; Income distribution; South America; Central America; Western Hemisphere; Caribbean
Cover Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide 2019
Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide 2019
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Abstract

The 2019 Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide (2019 Guide) includes new indicators to expand the coverage of the financial sector, including other financial intermediaries, money market funds, insurance corporations, pension funds, nonfinancial corporations, and households. In all, the 2019 Guide recommends the compilation of 50 FSIs—13 of them new. Additions such as new capital, liquidity and asset quality metrics, and concentration and distribution measures will serve to enhance the forward-looking aspect of FSIs and contribute to increase policy focus on stability of the financial system.

Keywords:
M&G; capital; loan; foreign currency; holding company; DT subsidiary; DT sector; parent corporation; FSI compiler; regulatory capital; capital range; Financial soundness indicators; Personal income; Loans; Real estate prices; Financial statements; Global; Western Hemisphere; Middle East and Central Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Caribbean; real estate; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Iceland is experiencing an economic slowdown that has reduced overheating concerns. Tourism growth has decelerated and the króna has stopped appreciating. Demand management has become easier, allowing the authorities to focus on medium-term priorities, including infrastructure, healthcare, education, and the environment. Risks, however, have become more evident. High fuel prices and other factors are challenging the airline business; world trade tensions are escalating; and the United Kingdom—a vital trading partner—is not yet assured of a smooth EU exit. Icelandic policies thus need to focus on further increasing resilience to shocks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; competition authority; staff appraisal; baseline rojections; increase government investment; IMF staff projection; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; tourism growth; foreign currency; Current account surpluses; Income; Government finance statistics; Fiscal stance; Global; Europe
Cover IEO Evaluation Report
IEO Evaluation Report
The IMF and Social Protection
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This paper analyzes that the IMF has moved beyond its traditional fiscal-centric approach to recognize that social protection can also be macro-critical for broader reasons including social and political stability concerns. Evaluating the IMF’s involvement in social protection is complicated by the fact that there is no standard definition of social protection or of broader/overlapping terms such as social spending and social safeguards in (or outside) the IMF. In this evaluation, social protection is understood to include policies that provide benefits to vulnerable individuals or households. This evaluation found widespread IMF involvement in social protection across countries although the extent of engagement varied. In some cases, engagement was relatively deep, spanning different activities (bilateral surveillance, technical assistance, and/or programs) and involving detailed analysis of distributional impacts, discussion of policy options, active advocacy of social protection, and integration of social protection measures in program design and/or conditionality. This cross-country variation to some degree reflected an appropriate response to country-specific factors, in particular an assessment of whether social protection policy was macrocritical, and the availability of expertise from development partners or in the country itself.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; protection; staff; evaluation; policy; country; IMF staff; social protection; core area; IMF-ILO stocktaking; protection policy; IMF's mandate; Social assistance spending; Social protection spending; Pension reform; Energy subsidies; Global; Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
Review of Access Limits and Surcharge Policies
International Monetary Fund
Scope and strategy: This paper reviews access limits and surcharge policies in the Fund’s General Resources Account (GRA). It builds on the preliminary Executive Board discussion that took place in May 2014, against the backdrop of the 14th Review quotas expected to become effective early in 2016, which will on average double individual members’ quotas. At the meeting in 2014, most Directors considered that a moderate increase in normal access limits in SDR terms would broadly restore the normal Fund access to levels considered acceptable in 2009, and saw merit in adjusting the surcharge threshold to allow for a moderate increase in the SDR value of credit not subject to the charge.
Keywords:
PP; IMF executive board review; financing role; threshold; SDR; refund; surcharge policy; b. paragraph 4; decisions III; Credit; Personal income; Currencies; Balance of payments need; Credit risk; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Technical Assistance Report-Optimal Reform and Distributional Analysis of the Personal Income Tax
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper discusses key findings and recommendations of the Technical Assistance Report on Optimal Reform and Distributional Analysis of the Personal Income Tax (PIT). With regard to reforming the PIT schedule, it recommends that the basic credit be increased and made fully refundable to all taxpayers age 18 and older. To avoid paying this benefit to young singles, such as students, who generally have other means of support, it could be conditioned on a certain level of labor earnings. This credit should be rapidly phased out as labor income rises, and the initial PIT rate should be significantly reduced. The current top PIT rate does not need reform, although the threshold for that rate should ideally be raised.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; per capita income; taxable income; gross income; guaranteed annual income; household income; phase-out rate; reform proposal; tax burden; income tax; central government; government reform; Personal income; Personal income tax; Marginal effective tax rate; Income tax systems; Income distribution
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Sixth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses the recommendations of the Sixth Post-program Monitoring Discussions with Iceland. Iceland recently updated its capital account liberalization strategy. The strategy takes a staged approach, starting with steps to address the balance-of-payments overhang of the old bank estates—prioritizing a cooperative approach with incentives—in a manner consistent with maintaining stability. Growth is accelerating in 2015 and is expected to reach 4.1 percent, backed by significant investment, wage- and debt relief-fueled consumption, and booming tourism. The general government is projected to record a surplus of 0.8 percent of GDP in 2015, helped by large one-offs. Small deficits are also expected over 2016–20.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation expectation; liberalization; liberalization strategy; capital account liberalization strategy; anchor inflation expectation; wage agreement; net export; Capital account liberalization; Wages; Income; Gender budgeting; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2014 Article IV Consultation and Fifth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Iceland has reached a relatively strong macroeconomic position with good growth prospects. Unemployment continues to trend down, now at 4 percent. Growth is expected to pick up to about 3 percent over 2015–17, supported by robust domestic demand and tourism. Consumption will be boosted by household debt relief and—together with net trade—will benefit from favorable commodity prices. Good progress has also been made in improving the financial stability framework, but gaps remain.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation expectation; balance of payments; crisis legacy; liberalization strategy; IMF staff projection; central bank; Capital account liberalization; Inflation; Income; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Distributional Consequences of Fiscal Consolidation and the Role of Fiscal Policy: What Do the Data Say?
Jaejoon Woo
,
Ms. Elva Bova
,
Mr. Tidiane Kinda
, and
Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang
The 2007-09 Great Recession has led to an unprecedented increase in public debt in many countries, triggering substantial fiscal adjustments. What are the distributional consequences of fiscal austerity measures? This is an important policy question. This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policies on income inequality in a panel of advanced and emerging market economies over the last three decades, complemented by a case study of selected consolidation episodes. The paper shows that fiscal consolidations are likely to raise inequality through various channels including their effects on unemployment. Spending-based consolidations tend to worsen inequality more significantly, relative to tax-based consolidations. The composition of austerity measures also matters: progressive taxation and targeted social benefits and subsidies introduced in the context of a broader decline in spending can help offset some of the adverse distributional impact of consolidation. In addition, fiscal policy can favorably influence long-term trends in both inequality and growth by promoting education and training among low- and middle-income workers.
Keywords:
WP; income; Gini coefficient; Inequality; Fiscal Consolidation; Fiscal Policy; Tax and Spending policy; inequality data; market income; income share; wage bill; income equality; low income; simple average; incomes database; correlation coefficient; order of magnitude; determinants of income inequality; income Gini coefficient; Income inequality; Income distribution; Disposable income; Personal income; Europe; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Europe; Asia and Pacific