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Europe > Iceland

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning
Yang Liu
,
Di Yang
, and
Mr. Yunhui Zhao
Inflation has been rising during the pandemic against supply chain disruptions and a multi-year boom in global owner-occupied house prices. We present some stylized facts pointing to house prices as a leading indicator of headline inflation in the U.S. and eight other major economies with fast-rising house prices. We then apply machine learning methods to forecast inflation in two housing components (rent and owner-occupied housing cost) of the headline inflation and draw tentative inferences about inflationary impact. Our results suggest that for most of these countries, the housing components could have a relatively large and sustained contribution to headline inflation, as inflation is just starting to reflect the higher house prices. Methodologically, for the vast majority of countries we analyze, machine-learning models outperform the VAR model, suggesting some potential value for incorporating such models into inflation forecasting.
Keywords:
Housing Price Inflation; Rent; Owner-Occupied Housing; Machine Learning; Forecast; machine-learning model; machine learning method; housing boom; D. forecasting result; Inflation; Housing prices; Housing; Consumer price indexes; Global; Europe; Australia and New Zealand; North America; Caribbean; VAR model
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; OOH cost; Iceland fish catch; CPIXH inflation; Iceland fishing quota holder; inflation index; CPI inflation; benchmark index; Agroindustries; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Consumer price indexes; Housing prices; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module
International Monetary Fund
This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Data Module for Iceland highlights Data Module, response by the authorities, and detailed assessments using the data quality assessment framework. Iceland’s macroeconomic statistics are generally of high quality and are adequate to conduct effective surveillance. There is a high degree of quality awareness among Iceland’s statistical managers. There are some deficiencies in the periodicity and timeliness of the producer price index, and in the timeliness of central government finance statistics.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; central bank; sc; central government; staff resource; balance of payments; ROSC exercise; ROSC recommendation; commitment to confidentiality; Consumer price indexes; Balance of payments statistics; Producer price indexes; Monetary statistics; Data collection; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper reports on the technical aspects of the model-based inflation forecasts of the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) and the monetary transmission mechanism in Iceland. The paper summarizes the structure and results of time series models employed by the CBI to forecast inflation and quantify lags in the transmission of monetary policy changes. The paper also briefly discusses recent inflation trends, including the IMF staff’s estimate of the exchange rate pass-through. The paper presents some remarks on potential distortions in the financial market pass-through of monetary policy changes.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; tax rate; Iceland; price; wealth tax; income tax; inflation development; B. inflation forecast; I. inflation forecasting; transmission mechanism; wealth surtax; Corporate income tax; Inflation; Exchange rate pass-through; Corporate taxes; Personal income; Europe; liquidity provision; publication policy; financial market pass-through; Exchange rate adjustments
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
The abolition of the fluctuation bands by the Icelandic government is seen as the final step of a consistent and gradual move toward increased exchange rate flexibility. Supplemented by the adoption of an inflation targeting regime, the new monetary policy framework should suit Iceland better. Iceland's new monetary policy framework has been introduced against a backdrop of a sound legal environment. The institutional and operational framework of the inflation targeting regime is well defined. The statistical data on the economic indices of Iceland are presented.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; supply shock; government; monetary policy; inflation-deflation cycle; adjustable peg; rigid exchange rate peg; inflation rate; transmission mechanism; inflation projection; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Exchange rates; Exchange rate flexibility; Exchange rate arrangements; Global; Australia and New Zealand; Africa