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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note on Iceland focuses on Stress Testing and Systemic Risk Analysis. The Financial Sector Assessment Program took place against the background of a strengthened financial sector in Iceland amid heightened uncertainty in the global economy. The Icelandic financial landscape has undergone significant structural transformation since the global financial crisis with a contracted banking sector. The banking sector is sound, but foreign exchange (FX) funding remains a vulnerability. The scenario-based bank solvency stress test confirmed the sector’s resilience to severe but plausible macro-financial shocks, with gross domestic product influence similar to the Global Financial Crisis. The adverse scenario confirms banks’ resilience to severe yet plausible adverse shocks. Although the adverse scenario produced a significant impact on bank capital ratios, no bank saw its capital ratios falling below the hurdle rates, owing to the high initial capital positions and adequate pre-provision income. The Liquidity Coverage Ratio-based stress test suggests that although the banking system on aggregate is broadly resilient to adverse liquidity conditions, it is not immune to additional liquidity outflows from pension and nonresident FX funding.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This technical note analyses anti-money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) in Iceland. Iceland’s banking sector is comparatively small, and the geographical reach of cross-border payments activity is limited. The AML/CFT supervisory understanding and assessment of ML and terrorism financing (TF) risks in the banking sector has improved in recent years. Further refinements to the supervisory risk assessment tools and increased data collection will enhance the accuracy of the authorities’ focus for AML/CFT risk-based supervision of banks. Iceland has taken significant steps to establish a registration regime for virtual asset service providers (VASP) established in or operating in the country, however, efforts should continue to detect unlicensed activities. Going forward, a continued focus on thematic inspections would be a welcome. In some instances, the pace of completion of inspections has been slow. To drive meaningful change in the levels of AML/CFT compliance and the effectiveness of AML/CFT controls in banks (in particular, enterprise ML/TF risk assessment, customer due diligence, and suspicious transaction reporting), an enhanced supervisory presence through more frequent onsite activities and an increased pace in the completion of inspections would be beneficial.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note highlights macroprudential policy in Iceland. Macroprudential policy in Iceland recently has centered on the property market, given the importance of this market for households’ balance sheets, banks’ loan portfolios, and the potential systemic risks. The Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) has a strong institutional framework for macroprudential policy, assuring the willingness to act. The macroprudential framework also promotes the ability to act promptly. As the financial supervisor, the CBI has control over prudential tools; it may exercise its power as necessary to ensure financial stability. The institutional arrangements encourage effective cooperation and coordination with other institutions. CBI surveillance and systemic risk assessment rely on comprehensive quantitative information and constructive dialogue with the industry as well as on various models and stress tests. The strong analytical capacity for systemic risk monitoring can be further enhanced by filling data gaps and enriching models. While recent measures go in the right direction, the authorities should stand ready to take further actions if vulnerabilities persist.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note on Iceland presents analyses management and supervision of climate-related financial risks in the banking sector. The Icelandic authorities are committed to addressing climate change issues and reaching ambitious objectives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Domestic coordination with the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) should be enhanced to support adequate consideration of climate-related financial risks within the financial sector. CBI should as soon as possible address the data quality and availability issues on climate-related financial risks. CBI has started to incorporate climate-related financial risks within the macroprudential surveillance and supervisory processes. The intensity and thoroughness of systematic supervision of climate-related financial risks within the banking sector should be gradually increased. In addition, banks should fully incorporate climate-related financial risks into their risk management frameworks in addition to their commendable efforts toward transparency. Finally, CBI should determine whether banks’ capital and liquidity buffers are adequate to cover climate-related financial risks.
Ms. Marina Moretti
,
Mr. Marc C Dobler
, and
Mr. Alvaro Piris Chavarri
This paper updates the IMF’s work on general principles, strategies, and techniques from an operational perspective in preparing for and managing systemic banking crises in light of the experiences and challenges faced during and since the global financial crisis. It summarizes IMF advice concerning these areas from staff of the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM), drawing on Executive Board Papers, IMF staff publications, and country documents (including program documents and technical assistance reports). Unless stated otherwise, the guidance is generally applicable across the IMF membership.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Abstract

The 2019 Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide (2019 Guide) includes new indicators to expand the coverage of the financial sector, including other financial intermediaries, money market funds, insurance corporations, pension funds, nonfinancial corporations, and households. In all, the 2019 Guide recommends the compilation of 50 FSIs—13 of them new. Additions such as new capital, liquidity and asset quality metrics, and concentration and distribution measures will serve to enhance the forward-looking aspect of FSIs and contribute to increase policy focus on stability of the financial system.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Iceland is experiencing an economic slowdown that has reduced overheating concerns. Tourism growth has decelerated and the króna has stopped appreciating. Demand management has become easier, allowing the authorities to focus on medium-term priorities, including infrastructure, healthcare, education, and the environment. Risks, however, have become more evident. High fuel prices and other factors are challenging the airline business; world trade tensions are escalating; and the United Kingdom—a vital trading partner—is not yet assured of a smooth EU exit. Icelandic policies thus need to focus on further increasing resilience to shocks.
Mr. Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson
This paper develops a small open economy model where global and domestic liquidity is intermediated to the corporate sector through two financial processes. Investment banks intermediate cross-border credit through interlinked debt contracts to entrepreneurs and commercial banks intermediate domestic savings to liquidity constrained final good producers. Both processes are needed to facilitate development of key production inputs. The model captures procyclical investment bank leverage dynamics, global liquidity spillovers, domestic money market pressures, and macrofinancial linkages through which shocks propagate across the two processes, affecting spreads and balance sheets, as well as the real economy through investment and working capital channels.
International Monetary Fund
As use of macroprudential policy tools is growing, the IMF has initiated an annual survey on macroprudential policy with its membership. The resulting new database provides information on policy measures taken by IMF member countries as well as on the institutional arrangements in place to support macroprudential policy. This paper provides detail on the design of the survey and a description of the results from the first edition of the survey, based on responses received from 141 jurisdictions. It reviews institutional arrangements in place across the membership, provides an initial description of the types of measures reported across regions, and describes recent changes in macroprudential policy settings reported by member countries.
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
and
Mr. Gee Hee Hong
Superficial examination of aggregate gross cross-border capital inflow data suggests that there was no substitution between portfolio inflows and bank loans in recent years. However, our novel analysis of disaggregate inflows (both by types of instrument and borrower) shows interesting heterogeneity. There has been substitution of bank loans for portfolio debt securities not only in the case of corporate and sovereign borrowers in advanced countries, but also sovereign borrowers in emerging countries. In the case of corporate borrowers in emerging markets, the relationship corresponds to complementarity across types of gross capital inflows, especially during periods of positive capital gross inflows after the global financial crisis. A large part of these patterns does not seem to be driven by a common phenomenon across countries associated with the global financial cycle, but rather by country-specific factors.