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Europe > Iceland

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 12 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Macroprudential Policy
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note highlights macroprudential policy in Iceland. Macroprudential policy in Iceland recently has centered on the property market, given the importance of this market for households’ balance sheets, banks’ loan portfolios, and the potential systemic risks. The Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) has a strong institutional framework for macroprudential policy, assuring the willingness to act. The macroprudential framework also promotes the ability to act promptly. As the financial supervisor, the CBI has control over prudential tools; it may exercise its power as necessary to ensure financial stability. The institutional arrangements encourage effective cooperation and coordination with other institutions. CBI surveillance and systemic risk assessment rely on comprehensive quantitative information and constructive dialogue with the industry as well as on various models and stress tests. The strong analytical capacity for systemic risk monitoring can be further enhanced by filling data gaps and enriching models. While recent measures go in the right direction, the authorities should stand ready to take further actions if vulnerabilities persist.
Keywords:
capital markets department; Macroprudential decision making; housing market Mispricing; house price misalignment; CBI share; Financial sector stability; Macroprudential policy; Systemic risk; Loans; Mortgages; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles
Can Sever
This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth declines in the medium-term. This pattern remains similar, even when the changes in credit to households are accounted for. Next, using data from a large sample of firms, it shows that firm leverage buildups predict similar boom-bust growth cycles in firm employment: Firms with a larger increase in leverage experience a boost in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth decreases in the medium-term. Relatedly, the volatility of employment growth increases in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups. Finally, this paper provides suggestive evidence on the role of a financial channel in the relationship between firm leverage buildups and employment growth. The results show that a rise in firm leverage is associated with a persistently higher debt service ratio, pointing the drag on finances. Consistently, boom-bust growth cycles in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups are not limited to employment growth, but are also pronounced for investment. Moreover, the medium-term decline in firm employment growth as predicted by leverage buildups becomes even larger if aggregate financial conditions tighten. The findings are in favor of “lean against the wind” approach in policy making.
Keywords:
Firm leverage; firm debt; household debt; leverage cycles; employment; investment; boom-bust cycles; ORBIS; leverage buildup; employment growth; leverage cycle; growth cycle; cycles in the aftermath; Business cycles; Credit; Consumer credit; Credit booms; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position?
Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu
,
Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
, and
Mr. Pau Rabanal
Building on the vast literature, this paper focuses on the role of the structure of the international investment position (IIP) in affecting countries’ external vulnerabilities. Using a sample of 73 advanced and emerging economies and new database on the IIP’s currency composition, we find that the size and structure of external liabilities and assets, especially with regards to currency denomination, matter in understanding balance-of-payments pressures. Specifically, and beyond the standard macroeconomic factors highlighted in other studies, higher levels of gross external debt increase the likelihood of an external crisis, while higher levels of foreign-currency-denominated external debt increase the likelihood of sudden stops. Foreign reserve assets play a mitigating role, although with diminishing returns, and the combination of flow and stock imbalances amplifies external risks, especially during periods of heightened global risk aversion. The results are especially strong for emerging economies, where the impact of flow and stock imbalances and foreign currency mismatches are larger and more robust across specifications.
Keywords:
international investment positions; current account; foreign reserves; sudden stops with large output loss; external crises.; WP; debt liability; foreign currency; debt liabilities increase; liability position; debt assets
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cross-Border Credit Intermediation and Domestic Liquidity Provision in a Small Open Economy
Mr. Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson
This paper develops a small open economy model where global and domestic liquidity is intermediated to the corporate sector through two financial processes. Investment banks intermediate cross-border credit through interlinked debt contracts to entrepreneurs and commercial banks intermediate domestic savings to liquidity constrained final good producers. Both processes are needed to facilitate development of key production inputs. The model captures procyclical investment bank leverage dynamics, global liquidity spillovers, domestic money market pressures, and macrofinancial linkages through which shocks propagate across the two processes, affecting spreads and balance sheets, as well as the real economy through investment and working capital channels.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; money market; central bank; financial frictions; cross-border banking flows; macrofinancial linkages; financial intermediation; working capital; credit contracts; investment banking; credit market; liquidity shock; depreciation rate; funding rate reaction; capital producer; idiosyncratic productivity; cost of funds; commercial bank funding; monopolistic investment banks; Investment banking; Domestic credit; Credit; Commercial banks; Self-employment; Global; East Asia
Cover Policy Papers
The IMF’s Annual Macroprudential Policy Survey— Objectives, Design, and Country Responses
International Monetary Fund
As use of macroprudential policy tools is growing, the IMF has initiated an annual survey on macroprudential policy with its membership. The resulting new database provides information on policy measures taken by IMF member countries as well as on the institutional arrangements in place to support macroprudential policy. This paper provides detail on the design of the survey and a description of the results from the first edition of the survey, based on responses received from 141 jurisdictions. It reviews institutional arrangements in place across the membership, provides an initial description of the types of measures reported across regions, and describes recent changes in macroprudential policy settings reported by member countries.
Keywords:
PP; country; country response; nonbank; country submission; liquidity; countries indicating; multilateral analysis; countries in the Western Hemisphere; Macroprudential policy; Macroprudential policy instruments; Institutional arrangements for revenue administration; Systemic risk; Global; Western Hemisphere; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows—The Role of Macroprudential Policies
International Monetary Fund
Capital flows can deliver substantial benefits for countries, but also have the potential to contribute to a buildup of systemic financial risk. Benefits, such as enhanced investment and consumption smoothing, tend to be greater for countries whose financial and institutional development enables them to intermediate capital flows safely. Post-crisis reforms, including the development of macroprudential policies (MPPs), are helping to strengthen the resilience of financial systems including to shocks from capital flows. The Basel III process has improved the quality and level of capital, reduced leverage, and increased liquid asset holdings in financial systems. Drawing on and complementing such international reforms at the national level, robust macroprudential policy frameworks focused on mitigating systemic risk can improve the capacity of a financial system to safely intermediate cross-border flows. Macroprudential frameworks can play an important role over the capital flow cycle, and help members harness the benefits of capital flows. Introducing macroprudential measures (MPMs) preemptively can increase the resilience of the financial system to aggregate shocks, including those arising from capital inflows, and can contain the build-up of systemic vulnerabilities over time, even when such measures are not designed to limit capital flows. While the risks from capital outflows should be handled primarily by macroeconomic policies, a relaxation of MPMs may assist, as long as buffers are in place, in countering financial stresses from outflows. Capital flow liberalization should be supported by broad efforts to strengthen prudential regulation and supervision, including macroprudential policy frameworks. The Fund has two frameworks to help ensure that its advice on MPPs and policies related to capital flows is consistent and tailored to country circumstances. The frameworks (the Macroprudential framework and the Institutional View on capital flows) are consistent in terms of key principles, including avoiding using MPMs and capital flow management measures (CFMs) as a substitute for necessary macroeconomic adjustment. The appropriate classification of measures is important to ensure targeted advice consistent with the two frameworks. The conceptual framework for the assessment of measures laid out in this paper will assist staff in properly identifying MPMs and measures that are designed to limit capital flows and to reduce systemic financial risk stemming from such flows (CFM/MPMs), and thereby ensure the appropriate application of the Fund’s frameworks, so that staff policy advice is consistent and well targeted. The Fund will continue to develop and share expertise in using MPMs, and integrate these findings into its surveillance and technical assistance, which should contribute to building international understanding and experience on these issues.
Keywords:
PP; capital flow; liberalization; capital; macroprudential measure; paper; systemic risk; flow liberalization; liquidity tool; financial crisis; Capital flows; Systemic risk; Macroprudential policy; Macroprudential policy instruments; Capital inflows; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper examines Iceland’s expenditure policy, especially five expenditure pressure points, as well as capital flows and monetary policy effectiveness in small open economies. The postcrisis fiscal adjustment demanded painful choices, with spending on healthcare, education, and investment suffering cuts in real terms. While expenditures in these areas have rebounded more recently, there is a room for further decompression. Using quarterly panel data for 18 advanced and emerging small open economies during 2002–15, it finds that monetary policy is focused on inflation developments, but also that domestic interest rates affect capital flows, raising concerns about a reinforcing loop between monetary policy and capital flows.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; cost; GDP; monetary policy effectiveness; health expenditure; expenditure pressure points; monetary policy independence; monetary policy stance; interest cost; Capital flows; Capital inflows; Macroprudential policy instruments; Macroprudential policy; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation?
Mr. Anton Korinek
and
Mr. Damiano Sandri
International capital flows can create significant financial instability in emerging economies because of pecuniary externalities associated with exchange rate movements. Does this make it optimal to impose capital controls or should policymakers rely on domestic macroprudential regulation? This paper presents a tractable model to show that it is desirable to employ both types of instruments: Macroprudential regulation reduces overborrowing, while capital controls increase the aggregate net worth of the economy as a whole by also stimulating savings. The two policy measures should be set higher the greater an economy's debt burden and the higher domestic inequality. In our baseline calibration based on the East Asian crisis countries, we find optimal capital controls and macroprudential regulation in the magnitude of 2 percent. In advanced countries where the risk of sharp exchange rate depreciations is more limited, the role for capital controls subsides. However, macroprudential regulation remains essential to mitigate booms and busts in asset prices.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; Financial stability; pecuniary externalities; capital controls; macroprudential regulation; inequality; exchange rate depreciation; covariance term; wedge terms; marginal utility; asset price externality; exchange rate fluctuation; exchange rate effect; simplifying terms; resource constraint; asset purchase; price change; Exchange rates; Real exchange rates; Asset prices; Consumption; East Asia
Cover Policy Papers
2011 Triennial Surveillance Review - Report of the External Advisory Group
International Monetary Fund
This report was prepared by the External Advisory Group (EAG) for the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR). The Group comprised the following members: Shankar Acharya, Marc Antoine Autheman, Kemal Dervis, Martin Hellwig, Takatoshi Ito, David Li, Pedro Malan, Stephen Pickford, Chukwuma Charles Soludo, Umayya Toukan, and Edwin Truman. The EAG was set up to provide an independent check on staff’s analysis and recommendations which are set out in the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review—Overview Paper. The EAG contributed in written form and met twice during the course of the Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR)—on April 18 and July 29, 2011—to discuss the direction, emerging findings, and recommendations of the review.
Keywords:
PP; policy; risk assessment; IMF surveillance; IMF research; IMF's article; TSR recommendation; IMF's credibility; IMF's advice; risk assessment matrices; Financial stability assessment; Financial sector stability; Spillovers; Financial sector; Macrofinancial linkages; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2007
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Two Faces of Financial Globalization looks at the phenomenon of rising cross-border financial flows-credited with boosting growth in developing countries but also blamed for the emerging market crises of the late 1980s and 1990s. The lead article puts together a framework for analyzing studies about the costs and benefits of financial globalization. Other articles look at the worldwide allocation of capital, the role of finance in macroeconomic management, and changes in the investor base. "Picture This" illustrates the growth and direction of capital flows. One guest contributor describes India's capital account liberalization, and another looks at how participants in international finance can cope with a fluid financial landscape. "People in Economics" profiles Guillermo Calvo; "Back to Basics" explains the difference between the purchasing power parity exchange rate and market exchange rates as measures of global economic growth; and "Country Focus" spotlights Australia.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; market; mining commodity; country focus; exchange rate; market rate; PPP rate; IMF study; Capital flows; Financial sector development; Capital account liberalization; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Current account deficits; Global; East Asia; Europe; Africa; Asia and Pacific