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Europe > Iceland

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Information and Inequality in the Time of a Pandemic
Allan Dizioli
and
Roberto Pinheiro
We introduce two types of agent heterogeneity in a calibrated epidemiological search model. First, some agents cannot afford staying home to minimize their virus exposure, while others can. Our results show that these poor agents bear most of the epidemic’s health costs. Moreover, we show that having more agents who do not change their behavior during the pandemic could lead to a deeper recession. Second, agents are heterogeneous in developing symptoms. We show that diseases with higher share of asymptomatic cases, even if less lethal, lead to worse health and economic outcomes. Public policies such as testing, quarantining, and lockdowns are particularly beneficial in economies with a larger share of poor agents. However, lockdowns lose effectiveness when part of the agents take precautions to minimize virus exposure independent of government actions.
Keywords:
WP; infection rate; asymptomatic infection; unconstrained agent; Bellman equation; time allocation; flow utility; arrival rate; infected agent; Labor supply; Public expenditure review; COVID-19; testing; asymptomaticity; inequality
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Financial Market Spillovers: The Role of Portfolio Diversification, Trade, Home Bias, and Concentration
Yoko Shinagawa
This paper defines financial market spillovers as the comovement between two countries’ financial markets and analyzes financial market spillovers over the period 2001-12 through four channels: bilateral portfolio investment, bilateral trade, home bias, and country concentration. The paper finds that, if a country has a large amount of bilateral portfolio exposure in another country, these two countries’ comovement of bond yields are large. Also, countries’ geographical preferences impact financial spillovers; if a country has a stronger home bias, the country could have less spillovers from foreign financial markets. A policy implication from this result is that, if countries become less home-biased and have a greater amount of portfolio investment assets, they should strengthen prudential regulations to mitigate against rising risks of financial spillovers (or risk greater volatility owing to comovement with foreign markets).
Keywords:
WP; market; asset holding; Financial Spillover; Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS); Home Bias; financial market spillover; market contagion; correlation vis-à-vis; heightened market instability; portfolio inflow; Spillovers; Portfolio investment; Stock markets; Stocks; Securities; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2011 Triennial Surveillance Review - Report of the External Advisory Group
International Monetary Fund
This report was prepared by the External Advisory Group (EAG) for the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR). The Group comprised the following members: Shankar Acharya, Marc Antoine Autheman, Kemal Dervis, Martin Hellwig, Takatoshi Ito, David Li, Pedro Malan, Stephen Pickford, Chukwuma Charles Soludo, Umayya Toukan, and Edwin Truman. The EAG was set up to provide an independent check on staff’s analysis and recommendations which are set out in the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review—Overview Paper. The EAG contributed in written form and met twice during the course of the Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR)—on April 18 and July 29, 2011—to discuss the direction, emerging findings, and recommendations of the review.
Keywords:
PP; policy; risk assessment; IMF surveillance; IMF research; IMF's article; TSR recommendation; IMF's credibility; IMF's advice; risk assessment matrices; Financial stability assessment; Financial sector stability; Spillovers; Financial sector; Macrofinancial linkages; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers of Domestic Shocks: Will They Counteract the “Great Moderation”?
Mr. Ashoka Mody
and
Ms. Alina Carare
Even prior to the extreme volatility just observed, output growth volatility-following protracted decline-was flattening or mildly rising in some countries. More widespread was an increasing tendency from the mid-1990s for shocks in one country to transmit rapidly to other countries, creating the potential for heightened global volatility. The higher sensitivity to foreign shocks, in turn, appears related to stepped-up vertical specialization associated with the integration of emerging markets in international trade. Increased international spillovers call for stronger ex post coordination mechanisms when shocks are large but the best ex ante prevention strategy probably is sensible national policies.
Keywords:
WP; global economy; GDP ratio; trade share
Cover IMF Working Papers
International R&D Spillovers and Institutions
Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister
,
Mr. David T. Coe
, and
Mr. Elhanan Helpman
The empirical analysis in "International R&D Spillovers" (Coe and Helpman, 1995) is first revisited by applying modern panel cointegration estimation techniques to an expanded data set that we have constructed for the purpose of this study. The new estimates confirm the key results reported in Coe and Helpman about the impact of domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks on TFP. In addition, we show that domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks have measurable impacts on TFP even after controlling for the impact of human capital. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to include institutional variables, such as legal origin and patent protection, in order to allow for parameter heterogeneity based on a country's institutional characteristics. The results suggest that institutional differences are important determinants of total factor productivity and that they impact the degree of R&D spillovers.
Keywords:
WP; R&D capital; estimation technique; group estimates give; time series