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Europe > Iceland

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • 'Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models' x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Credit Growth and Economic Recovery in Europe After the Global Financial Crisis
Sergei Antoshin
,
Mr. Marco Arena
,
Nikolay Gueorguiev
,
Mr. Tonny Lybek
,
Mr. John Ralyea
, and
Mr. Etienne B Yehoue
This paper reviews the empirical relationships between credit growth, economic recovery, and bank profitability in Europe after the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that the post-GFC recoveries in Europe have been weaker than previous recoveries, with the “double-dip” recessions in 2011–12 in many countries and the worldwide reach of the GFC explaining the underperformance. Bank lending has been subdued as well, but this appears to have only held back the recovery relatively moderately. A 10 percent increase in bank credit to the private sector is associated with a rise of 0.6–1 percent in real GDP and 2–2½ percent in real private investment. These relationships have not changed significantly during and after the GFC. Loan quality, customer deposits, bank equity price index, and bank capital appear to be closely linked to bank lending. As expected, bank profitability is positively and significantly influenced by credit growth, but this relationship has weakened after the GFC.
Keywords:
WP; credit growth; economic activity; private sector; price index; economic recovery; creditless recoveries; bank profitability; global financial crisis; Europe; dummy recession; recovery dummy; CESEE recession-recovery pattern; GFC-induced recession; recovery period; GFC recovery; credit dynamics; creditless recovery; GFC recession; credit extension; Credit; Bank credit; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Credit booms; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Openness and Growth: Pursuing Empirical Glasnost
Mr. Andreas Billmeier
and
Tommaso Nannicini
Studies of the impact of trade openness on growth are based either on cross-country analysis-which lacks transparency-or case studies-which lack statistical rigor. We apply transparent econometric methods drawn from the treatment evaluation literature to make the comparison between treated (i.e., open) and control (i.e., closed) countries explicit while remaining within a unified statistical framework. First, matching estimators highlight the rather far-fetched country comparisons underlying common cross-country results. When appropriately restricting the sample, we confirm a positive and significant effect of openness on growth. Second, we apply synthetic control methods-which account for endogeneity due to unobservable heterogeneity-to countries that liberalized their trade regime and we show that trade liberalization has often had a positive effect on growth.
Keywords:
WP; control country; area dummy; country comparison; trade policy; trade openness; growth; matching estimators; synthetic control; country match; standard error; a lot of country; state monopoly; unobservable country heterogeneity; economic growth; MCD country; Latin American country; unobservable characteristic; Population growth; Trade liberalization; Public expenditure review; Middle East; Africa