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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses the recommendations of the Sixth Post-program Monitoring Discussions with Iceland. Iceland recently updated its capital account liberalization strategy. The strategy takes a staged approach, starting with steps to address the balance-of-payments overhang of the old bank estates—prioritizing a cooperative approach with incentives—in a manner consistent with maintaining stability. Growth is accelerating in 2015 and is expected to reach 4.1 percent, backed by significant investment, wage- and debt relief-fueled consumption, and booming tourism. The general government is projected to record a surplus of 0.8 percent of GDP in 2015, helped by large one-offs. Small deficits are also expected over 2016–20.
Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister
,
Mr. David T. Coe
, and
Mr. Elhanan Helpman
The empirical analysis in "International R&D Spillovers" (Coe and Helpman, 1995) is first revisited by applying modern panel cointegration estimation techniques to an expanded data set that we have constructed for the purpose of this study. The new estimates confirm the key results reported in Coe and Helpman about the impact of domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks on TFP. In addition, we show that domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks have measurable impacts on TFP even after controlling for the impact of human capital. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to include institutional variables, such as legal origin and patent protection, in order to allow for parameter heterogeneity based on a country's institutional characteristics. The results suggest that institutional differences are important determinants of total factor productivity and that they impact the degree of R&D spillovers.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Iceland during 1990–95. It describes developments in the real economy, and examines monetary and exchange rate developments and policies and the transmission of monetary policy. The paper provides a detailed look at budgetary outcomes and the stance of fiscal policy for 1995. Determinants of past and present growth in Iceland are examined. Indicators of fiscal sustainability are used to argue for better public finances in Iceland. The paper also examines the Icelandic tax structure.