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Europe > Iceland

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 30 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies. Uzbekistan entered the COVID-19 crisis with relatively strong macro-economic fundamentals.
Keywords:
Policy discussion; government transparency; Policy recommendation; IMF's transparency policy; macro-economic policies; Budget planning and preparation; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position?
Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu
,
Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
, and
Mr. Pau Rabanal
Building on the vast literature, this paper focuses on the role of the structure of the international investment position (IIP) in affecting countries’ external vulnerabilities. Using a sample of 73 advanced and emerging economies and new database on the IIP’s currency composition, we find that the size and structure of external liabilities and assets, especially with regards to currency denomination, matter in understanding balance-of-payments pressures. Specifically, and beyond the standard macroeconomic factors highlighted in other studies, higher levels of gross external debt increase the likelihood of an external crisis, while higher levels of foreign-currency-denominated external debt increase the likelihood of sudden stops. Foreign reserve assets play a mitigating role, although with diminishing returns, and the combination of flow and stock imbalances amplifies external risks, especially during periods of heightened global risk aversion. The results are especially strong for emerging economies, where the impact of flow and stock imbalances and foreign currency mismatches are larger and more robust across specifications.
Keywords:
international investment positions; current account; foreign reserves; sudden stops with large output loss; external crises.; WP; debt liability; foreign currency; debt liabilities increase; liability position; debt assets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Iceland discusses that after years of robust growth, economic activity has significantly weakened. Supply disruptions in tourism, the engine of recent growth, and the associated uncertainty have triggered a drop in domestic demand and an increase in unemployment. A swift policy response, with fiscal relaxation and monetary easing, has stabilized expectations and cushioned the effects. A moderate but fragile growth recovery is expected in 2020. Macroprudential measures are helping to preserve buffers for managing financial stability risks. Macroprudential policies are adequate, given still elevated household debt and real-estate prices and benign external financing conditions. Looking forward, the macroprudential toolkit could be expanded to contain potential risks in the loan portfolio over the medium term. Ongoing education reforms would boost human capital and productivity, greater transparency of large unlisted companies would preserve the business environment, and strategic policies in tourism and fisheries would protect the sustainability of traditional economic sectors.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF staff country; inflation expectation; policy; Policy space; gross domestic product; policy accountability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Iceland’s continued real GDP growth, driven by tourism. Growth reached 7.2 percent in 2016 and is projected at almost 6 percent in 2017 before tapering to about 2.5 percent over the medium term. Bank credit to the nonfinancial private sector remains muted, growing only 4.3 percent in 2016, but it is expected to pick up. Thus far, growth has been driven not by leverage but by exports, private consumption, and investment. Iceland’s current account surplus is projected to shrink modestly over time, with some export sectors suffering while others thrive.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fiscal policy; IMF staff projection; economy; inflation expectation; exchange rate volatility; prudent fiscal policy; CBI transactions; inflation prospect; Tourism; Current account; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Crises
Mrs. Kerstin Gerling
,
Mr. Paulo A Medas
,
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
,
Juan Farah-Yacoub
, and
Yizhi Xu
A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks, appear to suffer the least in crisis periods. Surprisingly, advanced economies face greater turbulence (growth declines sharply in the first two years of the crisis), with half of them experiencing economic contractions. Fiscal policy is usually procyclical as countries curtail expenditure growth when economic activity weakens. We also find that the decline in economic growth is magnified if accompanied by a financial crisis.
Keywords:
WP; fiscal crisis; crisis episode; banking crisis dummy; real GDP; sovereign debt default; economic growth; twin crises; public debt debt ratio; crisis run-up; crisis onset; Debt default; Fiscal consolidation; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Resolving Residential Mortgage Distress: Time to Modify?
Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky
In housing crises, high mortgage debt can feed a vicious circle of falling housing prices and declining consumption and incomes, leading to higher mortgage defaults and deeper recessions. In such situations, resolution policies may need to be adapted to help contain negative feedback loops while minimizing overall loan losses and moral hazard. Drawing on recent experiences from Iceland, Ireland, Spain, and the United States, this paper discusses how economic trade-offs affecting mortgage resolution differ in crises. Depending on country circumstances, the economic benefits of temporary forbearance and loan modifications for struggling households could outweigh their costs.
Keywords:
WP; loan modification; unsecured debt; foreclosure procedure; negative equity; central bank; Debt overhang; foreclosure; housing crisis; mortgage distress; loan restructuring; foreclosure moratorium; loan renegotiation; due diligence; foreclosure process; foreclosure alternative; mortgage workout; loan counseling; Mortgages; Loans; Housing prices; Debt relief; Debt service; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Fourth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Iceland’s Fourth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions. Iceland’s economy has grown strongly on the back of booming tourism. Real GDP grew 3.3 percent in 2013, despite a drop in investment spending. Net exports were the primary driver. High frequency indicators suggest strong net exports—including steady growth in off-season tourism—have continued in Q1 2014, along with rising private consumption. Inflation has fallen below the Central Bank of Iceland’s 2.5 percent target but long-term inflation expectations remain noticeably above this level. The government’s medium-term fiscal objectives deserve support, but further effort is needed to achieve them.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; foreign currency purchase; staff appraisal; pace of inventory accumulation; MPC; central bank; inflation expectation; BoP prospect; Capital controls; Debt relief; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2013 Article IV Consultations and Third Post-Program Monitoring Discussions
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Iceland’s economy is on a path to recovery, but legacy vulnerabilities are weighing on growth. GDP growth—which reached 2.9 percent in 2011—slowed to 1.6 percent in 2012 amid private sector deleveraging and weak external demand. Unemployment has continued to decline however, standing at 5.1 percent in May, down from a peak of 9.2 percent in September 2010. Inflation has come down to 3.3 percent in June from a peak of 18.6 in January 2009, but remains above the central bank’s target of 2½ percent. The outlook is for modest growth, declining inflation, and improving fiscal and external position.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; broad money; control; IMF staff estimate; inflation expectation; market access; loan valuation uncertainty; central bank's authority; Capital controls; Fiscal consolidation; Loans; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The report throws light on the process of recovery from the global financial crisis in Iceland. The strong growth performance witnessed in 2011 seems to continue in 2012. The closing output gap and the decline in unemployment have been marked as positive changes. The major external and internal risks to the financial sector are highlighted, and emphasis is laid on the need to address risks and achieve fiscal targets by maintaining a strong, independent, and adequately resourced Financial Supervisory Authority (FME).
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; liberalization; liberalization strategy; ISK; inflation prospect; capital control; capital liberalization strategy; headline current account balance; implementation risk; exchange rate; Capital controls; Capital account liberalization; Inflation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation and First Post- Program Monitoring Discussion
International Monetary Fund
The 2012 Article IV Consultation reports that Iceland’s fiscal consolidation is continuing, but at a slower pace. Moderate expenditure overruns materialized in 2011, which will partly spill over to 2012 and the medium term. A key priority is to put the medium-term fiscal path back on track, which can be achieved with additional fiscal measures of ½ percent of GDP. Lifting the capital controls remains an overarching policy challenge, given the significant locked-in funds.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation outlook; inflation expectation; FDI route; anchor inflation expectation; monetary policy committee; pushed inflation; Capital controls; Loans; Income; Global; Europe