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Europe > Iceland

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Cover Global Financial Stability Notes
Pension Funds and Financial Stability
This Global Financial Stability Note examines the growth of the pension fund sector and the potential financial stability implications. Historically, pension funds have been seen as a contributor to financial stability because of their long-term and well-diversified liabilities. However, the sector has undergone significant structural shifts accelerated by a prolonged period of low interest rates, increasing its exposure to traditional risks while introducing emerging risks; this is reflected in growing intra-financial sector interconnectedness and exposure to long-term sovereign bonds. The recent transition to higher interest rates should be positive for the pension sector, albeit its pace and abruptness has been associated with liquidity stress and contagion risks in some countries.
Keywords:
Pension Funds; Financial Stability; Assets; Risks; Pension Plans; major pension fund sector; IMF Library; major pension savings market; structural liquidity; asset-liability duration mismatch; risk analysis; Pension spending; Pensions; Financial sector stability; Liquidity risk; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Pension Fund Regulation and Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note analyses the key aspects of the regulatory and supervisory regime for pension funds in Iceland. Pension funds in Iceland play a vital role in the domestic financial sector, acting as investors and lenders. This Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) reviews recent developments and the structure of the Icelandic pension fund sector. This technical note provides context on the Icelandic pension system, focusing in particular on the compulsory occupational scheme in Pillar II, the most important pillar of the system. The pension fund sector is large, well developed, and highly interconnected with the domestic financial system, mainly through exposures toward banks and domestic investment funds. A separate technical note summarizes the results of the risk analysis carried out for the pension fund sector and elaborates more on current market risk sensitivities. The governance and internal controls framework for pension funds is not aligned with the systemic role of the sector, and the underlying rules in the Pension Fund Act pre-date the corresponding provisions for other financial sectors. The Financial Supervisory Authority has adopted a risk-based and forward-looking supervisory model, however there is no minimum frequency set for on-site inspections. The FSAP recommends a strengthening of the legislative framework, especially regarding governance, internal controls and outsourcing.
Keywords:
pension fund regulation; finance disclosure regulation; insurance supervisor; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; pension supervisor; Pension spending; Financial stability assessment; Pensions; Internal controls; Pension fund supervision; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Stress Testing and Systemic Risk Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note on Iceland focuses on Stress Testing and Systemic Risk Analysis. The Financial Sector Assessment Program took place against the background of a strengthened financial sector in Iceland amid heightened uncertainty in the global economy. The Icelandic financial landscape has undergone significant structural transformation since the global financial crisis with a contracted banking sector. The banking sector is sound, but foreign exchange (FX) funding remains a vulnerability. The scenario-based bank solvency stress test confirmed the sector’s resilience to severe but plausible macro-financial shocks, with gross domestic product influence similar to the Global Financial Crisis. The adverse scenario confirms banks’ resilience to severe yet plausible adverse shocks. Although the adverse scenario produced a significant impact on bank capital ratios, no bank saw its capital ratios falling below the hurdle rates, owing to the high initial capital positions and adequate pre-provision income. The Liquidity Coverage Ratio-based stress test suggests that although the banking system on aggregate is broadly resilient to adverse liquidity conditions, it is not immune to additional liquidity outflows from pension and nonresident FX funding.
Keywords:
fair value; Bank-NBFI network; bank asset composition; bank liquidity position; Tier 1; top-down solvency stress test; stress test; interest rate projection; sensitivity analysis; Pension spending; Stress testing; Commercial banks; Liquidity; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Icelandic economy has shown remarkable resilience and rebounded quickly from the multiple shocks in recent years. The economy is currently operating well above potential, which, together with high import and house prices, has pushed inflation significantly above target, and contributed to external imbalances. While growth is expected to moderate to 3.2 percent in 2023 and 1.9 percent in 2024 on headwinds from abroad and tight macroeconomic policies, the medium-term outlook is favorable. In the near term, policy tightening coupled with headwinds from the deteriorating terms of trade will dampen domestic demand and reduce imbalances, though private consumption growth is likely to remain robust on a further drawdown of household savings and strong employment growth supported by continued immigration. Banks could face funding pressures if pension funds were to re-direct their investments from domestic to foreign markets.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; headline inflation; monetary policy horizon; deteriorating inflation outlook; cash flow; policy tightening; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Pension spending; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents Iceland’s Financial System Stability Assessment. Iceland has made solid progress since the 2008 crisis and the last Financial Sector Assessment Program update in restructuring banks and implementing important financial sector reforms. It has transposed many EU Directives and Regulations into national law, improving the regulatory, supervisory, and crisis management frameworks. Banks are resilient to solvency stress under the adverse scenario but are sensitive to interest rate changes. Liquidity stress can generally be handled but there are vulnerabilities. The value of pension funds’ assets declines substantially in the adverse scenario, reducing future pension values materially. Iceland’s robust financial system has weathered the impact of the coronavirus disease pandemic well, owing to substantially improved macro-financial frameworks since the global financial crisis.
Keywords:
coverage ratio; FSAP finding; bank Contagion analysis; E. risk analysis; bank stress tests; Pension spending; Stress testing; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Financial sector stability; Real estate prices; Global
Cover Policy Papers
G20 Note On Environmentally Sustainable Investment For The Recovery
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Note prepared for the G20 Infrastructure Working Group summarizes the main finding of the IMF flagships regarding the role of environmentally sustainable investment for the recovery. It emphasizes that environmentally sustainable investment is an important enabler for a resilient greener, and inclusive recovery—it creates jobs, spurs economic growth, addresses climate change, and improves the quality of life. It can also stimulate much needed private sector greener and resilient investment.
Keywords:
climate change; environmentally sustainable investment; public investment management; green infrastructure; IMF flagship; transparency policy; quality infrastructure investment agenda; energy efficiency improvement investment; management practice; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Infrastructure; Climate change; Job creation; Natural disasters; Global; Sustainable growth
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The Chilean economy has been hit by the pandemic while recovering from the social unrest in late 2019, requiring substantial adjustment of economic policies and the appropriate use of existing policy buffers. Following a sharp decline in mid-2020, economic activity started recovering in 2020H2 in the wake of ample policy stimulus. Inflation remains near the policy target, with inflation expectations anchored, and the current account balance has improved amid a sharp drop in imports and relatively resilient exports. Fiscal and monetary policies remain guided by the structural fiscal balance rule and the inflation-targeting framework, respectively. Beyond the pandemic-related risks, there is uncertainty stemming from a series of elections and the outcome of a New Constitution process—scheduled to finish in mid-2022—which are expected to shape the public discourse and influence the policy agenda.
Keywords:
liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; inflation expectation; policy target; I. Policy response; COVID-19; Pension spending; Fiscal stance; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Technical Assistance Report—Improving the Quality of Fiscal and Public Debt Data (October 7-16, 2019)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
In response to a request from the Government of Kenya, an AFRITAC East (AFE) government finance statistics (GFS) technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, during October 7–16, 2019. The primary objective of the mission was to support staff in improving the quality of fiscal and public debt data for the general government and migration of the fiscal framework to Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) concepts to facilitate fiscal and debt policy analysis for improved public financial management. This is a continuation of the ongoing efforts in capacity development aimed at supporting member countries to adopt the GFSM 2014 and the Public Sector Debt Statistics Guide (PSDSG 2011).
Keywords:
IMF PSDS Questionnaire; appendix XI; appendix I. Implementation of recommendation; BCG statement; TA mission; Government finance statistics; Public sector; Fiscal governance; Total expenditures; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Information and Inequality in the Time of a Pandemic
Allan Dizioli
and
Roberto Pinheiro
We introduce two types of agent heterogeneity in a calibrated epidemiological search model. First, some agents cannot afford staying home to minimize their virus exposure, while others can. Our results show that these poor agents bear most of the epidemic’s health costs. Moreover, we show that having more agents who do not change their behavior during the pandemic could lead to a deeper recession. Second, agents are heterogeneous in developing symptoms. We show that diseases with higher share of asymptomatic cases, even if less lethal, lead to worse health and economic outcomes. Public policies such as testing, quarantining, and lockdowns are particularly beneficial in economies with a larger share of poor agents. However, lockdowns lose effectiveness when part of the agents take precautions to minimize virus exposure independent of government actions.
Keywords:
WP; infection rate; asymptomatic infection; unconstrained agent; Bellman equation; time allocation; flow utility; arrival rate; infected agent; Labor supply; Public expenditure review; COVID-19; testing; asymptomaticity; inequality
Cover IEO Evaluation Report
IEO Evaluation Report
The IMF and Social Protection
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This paper analyzes that the IMF has moved beyond its traditional fiscal-centric approach to recognize that social protection can also be macro-critical for broader reasons including social and political stability concerns. Evaluating the IMF’s involvement in social protection is complicated by the fact that there is no standard definition of social protection or of broader/overlapping terms such as social spending and social safeguards in (or outside) the IMF. In this evaluation, social protection is understood to include policies that provide benefits to vulnerable individuals or households. This evaluation found widespread IMF involvement in social protection across countries although the extent of engagement varied. In some cases, engagement was relatively deep, spanning different activities (bilateral surveillance, technical assistance, and/or programs) and involving detailed analysis of distributional impacts, discussion of policy options, active advocacy of social protection, and integration of social protection measures in program design and/or conditionality. This cross-country variation to some degree reflected an appropriate response to country-specific factors, in particular an assessment of whether social protection policy was macrocritical, and the availability of expertise from development partners or in the country itself.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; protection; staff; evaluation; policy; country; IMF staff; social protection; core area; IMF-ILO stocktaking; protection policy; IMF's mandate; Social assistance spending; Social protection spending; Pension reform; Energy subsidies; Global; Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific