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Asia and Pacific > India

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Prudent macroeconomic policies have supported India’s economic resilience, with growth expected to recover from a recent softening and inflation expected to converge to target. Risks to the outlook include deepening geoeconomic fragmentation and a slower pace of domestic demand recovery.
Keywords:
IMF article; headline inflation; fund approval; gross investment; potential GDP; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Capital spending; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bhutan: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bhutan
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bhutan achieved significant improvements in social conditions during the last decade, raising living standards. Poverty and inequality have declined, while extreme poverty has been eliminated. Growth is projected to accelerate over the medium term as a large hydro-project is commissioned and capital spending is boosted with the support of external grants. Pull factors are expected to slow down emigration, thereby reducing pressures on the supply side. A gradual fiscal consolidation based on revenue mobilization and accompanied by some spending restraint is needed to increase fiscal space and to reduce reliance on external grants in the longer term. Structural policies should focus on fostering high-quality private sector jobs, as well as diversifying exports. There is scope to strengthen the Royal Monetary Authority’s governance framework, as well as to step up anti-money laundering/countering the financing of terrorism efforts. Improvements in data quality have been significant, but further actions are needed to address remaining weaknesses. These include a need for greater transparency on crypto assets operations.
Keywords:
FDI company; foreign exchange resource; cover loan restructuring; capital investment; IMF team; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Upgrading Fiscal Frameworks in Asia-Pacific
Enrique Flores
,
Pranav Gupta
,
Yinqiu Lu
,
Paulo A Medas
,
Dinar Prihardini
,
Hoda Selim
,
Weining Xin
, and
Masafumi Yabara
This paper seeks to guide the reform of fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific in the context of calls for a more active fiscal policy in a shock-prone world. It highlights that the cost of fiscal support is large and that fiscal frameworks, including fiscal rules, are being put to the test given the sharp increase in debt, high interest and weaker growth prospects. The stress is only compounded by long-term challenges like aging populations, climate change and the need to deliver on the sustainable development goals. In this context, it is timely to review the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific and seek for ways to strengthen fiscal frameworks. After the global financial crisis, fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific became more countercylical and stronger than in other regions—especially in advanced economies. The paper shows that the degree of countercyclicality has been asymetric, with larger responses during periods of weak growth, and in particular in response to large shocks—the global financial crisis and the pandemic. It highlights that responses to the pandemic were large and used a wide range of tools, and how fiscal and monetary policy complemented each as they responded to large shocks. It looks into the deterioration of debt dynamics in Asia-Pacific, as public debt has been rising persistently across most countries driven by declining growth and rising deficits—particualrly after the global financial crisis for advanced economies and after the pandemic for emerging market and low income countries. The paper reviews fiscal frameworks across Asia-Pacific, including the use of fiscal rules, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and fiscal councils. It describes the characteristics of fiscal rules, which usually focus on debt and budget balances and are set by law but tend to lack well-specified enforcement mechanism or escape clauses. It highlights that compliance with the rules has worsened following the pandemic as—in contrast with the outturns before the pandemic--Asia-Pacific countries tend to show larger deviations relative to other regions. It also shows that despite the increase adoption of medium-term fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific forward guidance has been hampered by the lack of binding targets and ex-post analysis. Moreover, they do not seem to have resulted in better macro-fiscal forecast in part due to weak capacity and enforcement, lack of integration with the annual budget, and exposure to shocks—with risk analysis mostly limited to qualitative discussions. Proposed reforms seek to implement a comprehensive, risk-based approach to public finances. They focus on strengthening the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy through credible medium-term fiscal plans, fiscal rules linked to the medium-term strategy and the annual budgets, and a stronger reliance on fiscal councils. They also emphasize the need for a broader view of the public sector as fiscal policy is being conducted through multiple channels, which requires assessing and managing vulnerabilities and a significant improvement in fiscal statistics. They also address aging and climate change by focusing on assessing large intergenerational trade-offs, reporting on long-term debt dynamics, and on green medium-term fiscal frameworks that incorporate the effects of climate change and climate policies.
Keywords:
Fiscal Rules Fiscal Frameworks Medium-term Fiscal Frameworks Public Debt Sustainability automatic stabilizers Climate Change Population Aging; Asia-Pacific country; Asia-Pacific economy; Asia-Pacific region; IMF country team; SRDSF country; Fiscal rules; Fiscal governance; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nepal
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper focuses on Nepal’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Nepal has made good progress with implementation of the program, despite a challenging political environment. With growth below potential, executing the planned increase in capital spending, as envisaged in the FY24/25 budget, while maintaining fiscal discipline through domestic revenue mobilization and rationalization of current spending remains critical to boost growth and preserve medium-term fiscal sustainability. Monetary policy should maintain the current cautious, data-driven approach to preserving price and external stability. Avoiding further boom-bust credit cycles is critical to establish a more stable, pro-growth equilibrium. Continued progress on the structural front remains needed to foster investment and more inclusive growth. These include improving the business climate, building human capital, and continuing to improve social safety nets, in particular aiming for full execution of the child grant budget, followed by an expansion of the program to all districts in Nepal.
Keywords:
ECF arrangement; UML-NC coalition; Nepali authorities; ECF program implementation; accommodative monetary policy stance; Credit; Debt relief; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Securing Fiscal Discipline and Credibility in WAEMU: WAEMU
Ljubica Dordevic
and
Olivia Y Ibrahim
Fiscal consolidation and the reintroduction of the WAEMU fiscal framework is crucial for maintaining debt sustainability, external viability, and financial stability. The 3 and 70 percent of GDP deficit and debt ceilings envisaged by the expired rule remain appropriate, while addressing the stock-flow adjustments will help rebuild fiscal buffers. Convergence to a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP should be ensured by 2025— barring exceptional circumstances—with focus on domestic revenue mobilization, while controlling expenditure. To secure fiscal discipline and credibility, it is essential to revamp the fiscal rule with a credible debt correction mechanism and exogenous escape clauses.
Keywords:
monetary union; fiscal policy; fiscal consolidation; fiscal rules; debt; stock flow adjustment; stock-flow adjustment; credibility in WAEMU; deficit ceiling; deficit target; deficit rule; Debt sustainability; Fiscal space; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Zombie Banks in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
Torsten Wezel
,
Hannah Sheldon
, and
Zhengwei Fu
While deeply undercapitalized banks have been shown to misallocate credit to weak firms, the drivers of such zombie banks are less researched, particularly across countries. To furnish empirical evidence, we compile a dataset of undercapitalized banks from emerging markets and developing economies. We classify zombie banks as those not receiving remedial treatment by owners or regulators or, alternatively, remaining chronically undercapitalized. Using logit regressions, we find that country-specific factors are more influential for zombie status than bank characteristics, alhough some become significant when disaggreating by region. The paper’s overall findings imply the need for a proper regulatory framework and an effective resolution regime to deal with zombie banks more decisively.
Keywords:
Banks; Capital Requirements; Financial Crises; summary statistics; zombie bank; zombie share; zombie status; equity ratio; Banking crises; Bank resolution; Credit; Asia and Pacific; Global; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that India is on track to be one of the fastest growing major economies in the world this year, underpinned by prudent macroeconomic policies. Nonetheless, the economy is facing global headwinds, including a global growth slowdown in an increasingly fragmented world. Policy priorities should focus on replenishing fiscal buffers, securing price stability, maintaining financial stability, and accelerating inclusive growth through comprehensive structural reforms while preserving debt sustainability. Elevated public debt calls for ambitious medium-term consolidation, while continuing to prioritize capital spending. This should be complemented with a sound medium-term fiscal framework to promote transparency and accountability and align policies with India’s development goals. In order to reap the benefits of demographic tailwinds, structural policy should focus on promoting high quality job-rich growth, underpinned by comprehensive reform in areas of education, health, land, agriculture, and labor markets, including measures to boost female labor force participation. Continuing investment in infrastructure, strengthening governance, and enhancing a sound business environment are critical.
Keywords:
policy priority; WPI base year; infrastructure program; CPI series; household inflation expectation; gross investment; policy recommendation; financial asset; FDI regime; fund approval; CPI weight; Inflation; Government debt management; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2021 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Maldives is recovering after the historical 2020 fall in tourism, aided by a rapid coronavirus disease 2019-vaccination program rollout. While the prompt and comprehensive policy approach in early 2020 was effective, a more prolonged pandemic and ambitious infrastructure projects are further weakening large pre-pandemic fiscal and external vulnerabilities. The strong (but still partial) recovery in tourism since 2020Q4 has improved the outlook, but fiscal and external positions are projected to remain weak over the medium term, underpinned by current capital expenditure plans. The Maldives has both a high risk of external debt distress and high overall risk of debt distress. The team agreed that a tighter monetary policy stance might be needed to ensure compatibility with the exchange rate peg, lower external imbalances and build-up reserves. They supported the Maldives Monetary Authority’s ongoing efforts to modernize monetary policy and the foreign exchange operations framework, including those aimed at eliminating exchange rate restrictions and multiple currency practices.
Keywords:
positivity rate; program rollout; MMA authorities; staff projection; staff supplement; Maldivian authorities; MMA advance; COVID-19; Capital spending; South Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility. The authorities’ commitment to macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline under the program is starting to bear fruit. The economy is stabilizing as exchange rate pressures have eased and inflation, while still high, is on a downward trend. The authorities’ main near-term policy priority is to maintain fiscal prudence while protecting the most vulnerable and supporting growth-enhancing investment. Decisive fiscal adjustment is putting debt on a firm downward trajectory even as expenditures to protect the vulnerable are being prioritized. Monetary and fiscal restraints are easing pressures on the exchange rate, but inflation has yet to move decisively lower. Efforts are underway to broaden the tax base, increase spending efficiency, improve governance, and address longstanding vulnerabilities in the financial system. The authorities have enacted an amendment to increase value added tax revenues and have finalized a framework to assess banks’ recapitalization and restructuring plans.
Keywords:
end-December QPC; staff appraisal; near-term policy priority; governance reform; Surinamese authorities; Arrears; Inflation; Debt restructuring; Caribbean; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Mr. Zamid Aligishiev
,
Ms. Gabriela Cugat
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Davide Furceri
,
João Tovar Jalles
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
Mr. Giovanni Melina
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
,
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
, and
Carlo Pizzinelli
Many emerging market and developing economies face a difficult trade-off between economic support and fiscal sustainability. Market-oriented structural reforms ease this trade-off by promoting economic growth and strengthening public finances. The empirical analysis in this note, based on 62 EMDEs over 1973-2014, shows that reforms are associated with sizeable and long-lasting reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio mainly through higher fiscal revenues and lower borrowing costs. These effects are larger in countries with greater tax efficiency, lower informality, and higher initial debt. Moreover, a model-based analysis elaborates on how such fiscal gains can be enhanced when revenue windfalls associated with reforms are saved or channeled through higher public investment.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Debt Dynamics; Economic Regulation; Structural Reforms; Emerging Market Economies; Low-Income Developing Countries; market reform; reform impact; GDP ratio; government debt reduction; government policy response; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Debt reduction; Fiscal stance; Global; Asia and Pacific; Debt sustainability analysis