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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 135 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Foreign Exchange Intervention Under the Integrated Policy Framework: The Case of India
Jesper Lindé
,
Patrick Schneider
,
Nujin Suphaphiphat
, and
Hou Wang
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in mitigating economic and financial shocks in India by applying the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF). It highlights how FXI can be a complementary tool in mitigating the tradeoff between output and inflation, specifically under large economic shocks amid temporarily shallow FX markets. The paper indicates that while FXI can soften adverse impacts on domestic demand and output during severe risk-off shocks, its benefits under normal conditions with liquid FX markets are limited.
Keywords:
Integrated policy framework; foreign exchange intervention; risk-off shocks; EM FX intervention proxy; RBI FX intervention; FX Market development; OTC FX turnover; rate Policy; Currency markets; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2021 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Maldives is recovering after the historical 2020 fall in tourism, aided by a rapid coronavirus disease 2019-vaccination program rollout. While the prompt and comprehensive policy approach in early 2020 was effective, a more prolonged pandemic and ambitious infrastructure projects are further weakening large pre-pandemic fiscal and external vulnerabilities. The strong (but still partial) recovery in tourism since 2020Q4 has improved the outlook, but fiscal and external positions are projected to remain weak over the medium term, underpinned by current capital expenditure plans. The Maldives has both a high risk of external debt distress and high overall risk of debt distress. The team agreed that a tighter monetary policy stance might be needed to ensure compatibility with the exchange rate peg, lower external imbalances and build-up reserves. They supported the Maldives Monetary Authority’s ongoing efforts to modernize monetary policy and the foreign exchange operations framework, including those aimed at eliminating exchange rate restrictions and multiple currency practices.
Keywords:
positivity rate; program rollout; MMA authorities; staff projection; staff supplement; Maldivian authorities; MMA advance; COVID-19; Capital spending; South Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility. The authorities’ commitment to macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline under the program is starting to bear fruit. The economy is stabilizing as exchange rate pressures have eased and inflation, while still high, is on a downward trend. The authorities’ main near-term policy priority is to maintain fiscal prudence while protecting the most vulnerable and supporting growth-enhancing investment. Decisive fiscal adjustment is putting debt on a firm downward trajectory even as expenditures to protect the vulnerable are being prioritized. Monetary and fiscal restraints are easing pressures on the exchange rate, but inflation has yet to move decisively lower. Efforts are underway to broaden the tax base, increase spending efficiency, improve governance, and address longstanding vulnerabilities in the financial system. The authorities have enacted an amendment to increase value added tax revenues and have finalized a framework to assess banks’ recapitalization and restructuring plans.
Keywords:
end-December QPC; staff appraisal; near-term policy priority; governance reform; Surinamese authorities; Arrears; Inflation; Debt restructuring; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Rephasing and Reduction of Access, Waivers of nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Rephasing and Reduction of Access, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PC), and Financing Assurances Review. The authorities have made concerted efforts to bring their economic recovery program back on track and stabilize the economy, foremost by restoring fiscal discipline, while expanding social assistance programs to protect the poor. They have also reached important milestones in debt restructuring negotiations, which, alongside fiscal consolidation, will support Suriname’s efforts to restore debt sustainability. The end-December 2022 quantitative performance criteria on the cumulative central government primary balance and net domestic assets were missed. Two continuous PCs and one standard continuous PC were also breached. Progress on implementing the structural agenda has moved ahead but with delays. The authorities are continuing to make progress with their structural reform agenda. Structural reforms to strengthen institutions, governance, and data quality remain key priorities with continued capacity building support by IMF and Suriname’s other development partners.
Keywords:
roadmap triage; staff appraisal; governance reform of bank; government FX sale; sales transaction; Exchange rates; Multiple currency practices; Arrears; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measurement and Use of Cash by Half the World’s Population
Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong
and
David Humphrey
The use of cash for payments is not well measured. We view the value of cash withdrawn from ATMs, or as a share of all payments, as a more accurate and timely measure of cash use compared to the standard measure of currency in circulation, or as a ratio to GDP. These two measures are compared for 14 advanced and emerging market economies. When aggregated, the trend in cash use for payments is currently falling for half the world’s population. Such a measure can help inform policy decisions regarding CBDC and regulatory decisions concerning access to and use of cash.
Keywords:
Cash; payments; access to cash; central bank digital currency; cash use; ATM cash; aggregate Currency value; value of cash; use of cash; Currencies; Monetary base; Purchasing power parity; Stocks; Payment systems
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants and Social Dividends of Digital Adoption
Utkarsh Kumar
,
David Amaglobeli
, and
Mariano Moszoro
We identify key drivers of digital adoption, estimate fiscal costs to provide internet subsidies to households, and calculate social dividends from digital adoption. Using cross-country panel regressions and machine learning, we find that digital infrastructure coverage, internet price, and usability are the most statistically robust predictors of internet use in the short run. Based on estimates from a model of demand for internet, we find that demand is most price responsive in low-income developing countries and almost unresponsive in advanced economies. We estimate that moving low-income developing and emerging market economies to the levels of digital adoption in emerging and advanced economies, respectively, will require annual targeted subsidies of 1.8 and 0.05 percent of GDP, respectively. To aid with subsidy targeting, we use microdata from over 150 countries and document a digital divide by gender, socio-economic status, and demographics. Finally, we find substantial aggregate and distributional gains from digital adoption for education quality, time spent doing unpaid work, and labor force participation by gender.
Keywords:
Social Dividends; Digitalization; GovTech; Internet use; internet price; Internet adoption; Internet coverage; internet use; Labor force participation; Income; Women; Purchasing power parity; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Overcoming Data Sparsity: A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa
Karim Barhoumi
,
Seung Mo Choi
,
Tara Iyer
,
Jiakun Li
,
Franck Ouattara
,
Mr. Andrew J Tiffin
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
The COVID-19 crisis has had a tremendous economic impact for all countries. Yet, assessing the full impact of the crisis has been frequently hampered by the delayed publication of official GDP statistics in several emerging market and developing economies. This paper outlines a machine-learning framework that helps track economic activity in real time for these economies. As illustrative examples, the framework is applied to selected sub-Saharan African economies. The framework is able to provide timely information on economic activity more swiftly than official statistics.
Keywords:
Sub-Saharan Africa; Economic Activity; GDP; Machine Learning; Nowcasting; COVID-19; machine learning approach; data sparsity; GDP statistics; crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa; learning framework; Oil prices; Real effective exchange rates; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Suriname faces systemic fiscal and external imbalances as a result of many years of economic mismanagement. Usable foreign reserves were depleted and, in the absence of other sources of budget financing, fiscal deficits were monetized. Inflation has, as a result, surged and there has been a significant depreciation of the exchange rate. Public debt, at 148 percent of GDP at end-2020, is unsustainable. In addition, there are important solvency problems embedded in the domestic banking system.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; staff representative; Surinamese authorities; government of Suriname; term deposit; Exchange rates; Arrears; Monetary base; Caribbean; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2019 Quota Data Update
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The paper presents summary results for the updated data set, with country-by-country details provided in Appendix I. In terms of broad country groups, the results of the data update are broadly consistent with trends observed in previous updates. The aggregate share of Emerging Market and Developing Countries (EMDCs) increased by 0.3 pp, to 50.0 percent, following a small decline in the EMDCs’ share recorded in the 2018 data update. The rising EMDC share reflected again foremost an increase for Asia. Most advanced economies recorded a small decrease in their calculated quota share using the current quota formula.
Keywords:
PP; openness variable; annexes advance; cutoff date; EMDC share; PPP GDP share; Purchasing power parity; Financial account; Labor unions; Monetary unions; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Global; Middle East; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Offshore Currency Markets: Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) in Asia
Jochen M. Schmittmann
Non-deliverable forward (NDF) markets in many Asian emerging market currencies are large, rapidly growing, and often exceed onshore markets in transaction volume. NDFs tend to price significant depreciation during market stress episodes including COVID-19. Spillovers from NDFs to onshore markets are a policymaker concern. Our analysis shows that influences tend to run both ways after controlling for differences in timezones between markets. For the COVID-19 pandemic there is some evidence of NDFs leading onshore markets for a few currencies. Policy approaches to NDFs vary widely across Asia from close integration with onshore markets to severe restrictions on NDF trading.
Keywords:
WP; NDF market; onshore market; NDF pricing; NDF trading; NDF volume; Philippine peso; Currency Markets; Offshore Markets; Non-Deliverable Forwards; NDF; DNDF; Indian rupee; transaction volume; trading hub; MYR NDF trading; NDF data; emerging market; DNDF position; Currencies; Depreciation; Spillovers; Global; East Asia; South Asia; DNDF liquidity; COVID-19; Asia and Pacific