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Asia and Pacific > India

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
India’s financial system has withstood the pandemic well and has become more resilient since the 2017 FSAP. Nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs)—especially nonbank financial companies (NBFCs) providing credit with wholesale financing—and market financing have grown, making the financial system more diverse and interconnected. The role of the state has diminished, yet it remains significant, including in using the financial system to pursue social and public finance goals.
Keywords:
market financing; coverage ratio; NBFC liquidity stress test result; policy option; liquidity support; FSAP finding; Financial sector stability; Nonbank financial institutions; Credit; Mutual funds; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Prudent macroeconomic policies have supported India’s economic resilience, with growth expected to recover from a recent softening and inflation expected to converge to target. Risks to the outlook include deepening geoeconomic fragmentation and a slower pace of domestic demand recovery.
Keywords:
IMF article; headline inflation; fund approval; gross investment; potential GDP; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Capital spending; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nepal
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper focuses on Nepal’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Nepal has made good progress with implementation of the program, despite a challenging political environment. With growth below potential, executing the planned increase in capital spending, as envisaged in the FY24/25 budget, while maintaining fiscal discipline through domestic revenue mobilization and rationalization of current spending remains critical to boost growth and preserve medium-term fiscal sustainability. Monetary policy should maintain the current cautious, data-driven approach to preserving price and external stability. Avoiding further boom-bust credit cycles is critical to establish a more stable, pro-growth equilibrium. Continued progress on the structural front remains needed to foster investment and more inclusive growth. These include improving the business climate, building human capital, and continuing to improve social safety nets, in particular aiming for full execution of the child grant budget, followed by an expansion of the program to all districts in Nepal.
Keywords:
ECF arrangement; UML-NC coalition; Nepali authorities; ECF program implementation; accommodative monetary policy stance; Credit; Debt relief; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
IMF and World Bank Approach to Cross-Border Payments Technical Assistance
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
and
World Bank
The G20 had made enhancing cross-border payments a priority. Faster, cheaper, more transparent and more inclusive cross-border payment services have the potential to be transformative for citizens and economies across the world. The Roadmap for Enhancing Cross-Border Payments, launched in 2020, is the first attempt by the international community to address the challenges faced by cross-border payments in a holistic way. A key foundational element in the Roadmap was the publication by the FSB of 11 quantitative targets to define the Roadmap’s aims and create accountability. Technical Assistance (TA) plays a critical role in helping achieve the Roadmap targets. TA relates closely to, and builds on, the IMF’s and World Bank’s respective missions. This paper outlines a multi-year strategy to provide TA in order to meet the cross-border payments targets. The paper (1) details the important role TA plays in achieving the Roadmap targets; (2) summarizes stocktakes conducted by the IMF and World Bank of recent and ongoing TA supporting cross-border payments; and (3) explains the IMF’s and World Bank’s approaches to cross-border payments TA. The IMF and World Bank commit to collaborating, coordinating, and complementing each other on cross-border payments TA wherever possible and appropriate at country/project level.
Keywords:
Cross-border payments; stocktake; technical assistance; payment systems; IMF TA approach; strengthening World Bank TA; IMF TA mission; TA program; IMF-World Bank; TA mission; cross-border payments TA; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Remittances; Central Bank digital currencies; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Sentiment-Enhanced Corruption Perception Index
Yongquan Cao
,
Ms. Yingjie Fan
,
Sandile Hlatshwayo
,
Monica Petrescu
, and
Zaijin Zhan
Direct measurement of corruption is difficult due to its hidden nature, and measuring the perceptions of corruption via survey-based methods is often used as an alternative. This paper constructs a new non-survey based perceptions index for 111 countries by applying sentiment analysis to Financial Times articles over 2005–18. This sentiment-enhanced corruption perception index (SECPI) captures not only the frequncy of corruption related articles, but also the articles’ sentiment towards corruption. This index, while correlated with existing corruption perception indexes, offers some distinct advantages, including heightened sensitivity to current events (e.g., corruption investigations and elections), availability at a higher frequency, and lower costs to update. The SECPI is negatively correlated with business environment and institutional quality. Increases in the perceived incidence or scope of corruption influences economic agents’ behaviors, and thus economic dynamics. We found that when the SECPI is at least one standard deviation above the mean, the growth per capita falls by 0.65 percentage point on average, with more pronounced impacts for emerging market and low income countries.
Keywords:
sentiment analysis method; perception index; statistic department; articles' sentiment; summary statistics; Corruption; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Business environment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Measurement and Macro-Relevance of Corruption: A Big Data Approach
Sandile Hlatshwayo
,
Anne Oeking
,
Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan
,
David Corvino
,
Ananya Shukla
, and
Mr. Lamin Y Leigh
Corruption is macro-relevant for many countries, but is often hidden, making measurement of it—and its effects—inherently difficult. Existing indicators suffer from several weaknesses, including a lack of time variation due to the sticky nature of perception-based measures, reliance on a limited pool of experts, and an inability to distinguish between corruption and institutional capacity gaps. This paper attempts to address these limitations by leveraging news media coverage of corruption. We contribute to the literature by constructing the first big data, cross-country news flow indices of corruption (NIC) and anti-corruption (anti-NIC) by running country-specific search algorithms over more than 665 million international news articles. These indices correlate well with existing measures of corruption but offer additional richness in their time-series variation. Drawing on theory from the corporate finance and behavioral economics literature, we also test to what extent news about corruption and anti-corruption efforts affects economic agents’ assessments of corruption and, in turn, economic outcomes. We find that NIC shocks appear to negatively impact both financial (e.g., stock market returns and yield spreads) and real variables (e.g., growth), albeit with some country heterogeneity. On average, NIC shocks lower real per capita GDP growth by 3 percentage points over a two-year period, illustrating persistence in the effect of such shocks. Conversely, there is suggestive evidence that anti-NIC efforts appear to have a sustained positive macro impact only when paired with meaningful institutional strengthening, proxied by capacity development efforts.
Keywords:
WP; NIC shock; anti-corruption effort; NIC country; corruption; anti-corruption; capacity development; big data; text analysis; event study; reform program; NIC measure; NIC level; Auditing; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, June 2012
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Five years after the first stirrings of the crisis, some countries have recovered, but others are still struggling. F&D looks at the world today and sees a complex and mixed picture for the future of the world economy. In "Tracking the Global Recovery" we learn that most emerging markets seem to have moved on from the effects of the crisis, but most advanced economies have not. "Fixing the System" looks at how the pace of reforms to strengthen financial regulation has now slowed. World Bank trade economist Bernard Hoekman takes stock of incipient moves toward protectionism in "Trade Policy: So Far So Good?". "Bystanders at the Collapse" looks at how emerging markets and low-income countries weathered the global recession. Financier Mohamed El-Erian weighs in on the potential threat posed by large payment surpluses and deficits in "Stable Disequilibrium." Also in the magazine, we explore what's happening in commodities markets, assess the rise of green technologies, take a look at the shifts in South Asia's labor force, and uncover the harm money laundering can inflict on national economies. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Laura Tyson, Minder of the Gaps, and the Back to Basics series explains how money markets provide a way for borrowers to meet short-term financial needs.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; debt; recession; UNICEF-WHO report; emerging market
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, June 2012
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Five years after the first stirrings of the crisis, some countries have recovered, but others are still struggling. F&D looks at the world today and sees a complex and mixed picture for the future of the world economy. In "Tracking the Global Recovery" we learn that most emerging markets seem to have moved on from the effects of the crisis, but most advanced economies have not. "Fixing the System" looks at how the pace of reforms to strengthen financial regulation has now slowed. World Bank trade economist Bernard Hoekman takes stock of incipient moves toward protectionism in "Trade Policy: So Far So Good?". "Bystanders at the Collapse" looks at how emerging markets and low-income countries weathered the global recession. Financier Mohamed El-Erian weighs in on the potential threat posed by large payment surpluses and deficits in "Stable Disequilibrium." Also in the magazine, we explore what's happening in commodities markets, assess the rise of green technologies, take a look at the shifts in South Asia's labor force, and uncover the harm money laundering can inflict on national economies. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Laura Tyson, Minder of the Gaps, and the Back to Basics series explains how money markets provide a way for borrowers to meet short-term financial needs.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; debt; recession; UNICEF-WHO report; emerging market
Cover Finance & Development
Finansy I razvitie, June 2012
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Five years after the first stirrings of the crisis, some countries have recovered, but others are still struggling. F&D looks at the world today and sees a complex and mixed picture for the future of the world economy. In "Tracking the Global Recovery" we learn that most emerging markets seem to have moved on from the effects of the crisis, but most advanced economies have not. "Fixing the System" looks at how the pace of reforms to strengthen financial regulation has now slowed. World Bank trade economist Bernard Hoekman takes stock of incipient moves toward protectionism in "Trade Policy: So Far So Good?". "Bystanders at the Collapse" looks at how emerging markets and low-income countries weathered the global recession. Financier Mohamed El-Erian weighs in on the potential threat posed by large payment surpluses and deficits in "Stable Disequilibrium." Also in the magazine, we explore what's happening in commodities markets, assess the rise of green technologies, take a look at the shifts in South Asia's labor force, and uncover the harm money laundering can inflict on national economies. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Laura Tyson, Minder of the Gaps, and the Back to Basics series explains how money markets provide a way for borrowers to meet short-term financial needs.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; debt; recession; UNICEF-WHO report; emerging market
Cover Finance & Development
Finances & Développement, juin 2012
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Cinq ans après le début de la crise, certains pays se sont relevés, mais d'autres restent en difficulté. Ce numéro de F&D se penche sur le monde d'aujourd'hui : l'avenir de l'économie mondiale s'annonce complexe et contrasté. Dans « La reprise mondiale en perspective », nous apprenons que la plupart des pays émergents semblent s'être sortis des effets de la crise, mais ce n'est pas le cas pour la plupart des pays avancés. L'article « Réparer le système » aborde le ralentissement du rythme des réformes visant à renforcer la réglementation financière. Dans « Politique commerciale : bilan positif ? », Bernard Hoekman, économiste de la Banque mondiale spécialisé dans le commerce international, dresse un état des lieux des tendances protectionnistes. L'article « Témoins innocents de la débâcle » relate comment les pays émergents et à faible revenu ont surmonté la récession mondiale. Dans « Un déséquilibre stable », le financier Mohamed El-Erian se penche sur le risque potentiel que posent les considérables excédents et déficits de paiement. Dans cette édition, nous nous intéressons également à l'évolution des marchés des produits de base, à la progression des technologies vertes, aux mutations de la population active en Asie du Sud, et aux lourdes conséquences du blanchiment de capitaux pour les économies nationales. La rubrique « Paroles d'économistes » dresse le portrait de Laura Tyson, l'ennemie des inégalités, et « L’ABC de l’économie » explique comment les marchés monétaires permettent aux emprunteurs de répondre à leurs besoins de financement à court terme.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; debt; recession; UNICEF-WHO report; emerging market