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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 53 items for :

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  • Agriculture: General x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Agricultural Output in Mozambique: Using remote sensing to initiate a discussion on development
Kelsee Bratley
and
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural land coverage in Mozambique by harnessing advanced remote sensing technologies and draws on successful agricultural development examples to propose strategic pathways for Mozambique. The study leverages Sentinel-2 satellite imagery coupled with a machine learning algorithm to accurately map and assess the country's agricultural land, revealing that agriculture accounts for only 12 percent of Mozambique's land area. By examining the agricultural transformation or “green revolution” that some countries have experienced, it is possible to distill regularities and necessary conditions, which can then be compared to the state-of-affairs in Mozambique. This study not only offers a model of how emerging technologies like remote sensing can inform agricultural state of affairs, it also provides important insights into which concrete bottlenecks are likely to be holding back Mozambique’s agricultural development.
Keywords:
Mozambique; agricultural development; remote sensing; greenrevolution; poverty alleviation; remote sensing technology; satellite imagery; accuracy assessment; agricultural land usage; area estimation; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural production; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Advancing India’s Structural Transformation and Catch-up to the Technology Frontier
Cristian Alonso
and
Margaux MacDonald
While India’s growth has been strong in recent decades, its structural transformation remains incomplete. In this paper, we first take stock of India’s growth to date. We find that economic activity has shifted from agriculture to services, but agriculture remains the predominant employer. Catch up to the technological frontier has been uneven, with limited progress in agriculture, but also in construction and trade, which have grown the most in terms of employment. We do find some Indian firms already operating at the technological frontier. These strong performers tend to be large firms. We then consider India’s employment challenge going forward. We find that India needs to create between 143-324 million jobs by 2050 and that doing so and with workers shifting towards more dynamic sectors could boost GDP growth by 0.2-0.5 percentage points. Structural reforms can help India create high-quality jobs and accelerate growth.
Keywords:
Economywide Production; Potential Output; Labor Productivity; Employment; Structural Transformation; Technological Frontier.; frontier employment; India's employment challenge; technology frontier; growth decomposition; IMF staff estimate; industry level; Agricultural sector; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Economic Impacts of Physical Climate Risks
Caterina Lepore
and
Roshen Fernando
This paper evaluates the global economic consequences of physical climate risks under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5) using firm-level evidence. Firstly, we estimate the historical sectoral productivity changes from chronic climate risks (gradual changes in temperature and precipitation) and extreme climate conditions (representative of heatwaves, coldwaves, droughts, and floods). Secondly, we produce forward-looking sectoral productivity changes for a global multisectoral sample of firms. For floods, these estimates account for the persistent productivity changes from the damage to firms’ physical capital. Thirdly, we assess the macroeconomic impact of these shocks within the global, multisectoral, intertemporal general equilibrium model: G-Cubed. The results indicate that, in the absence of additional adaptation relative to that already achieved by 2020, all the economies would experience substantial losses under the two climate scenarios and the losses would increase with global warming. The results can be useful for policymakers and practitioners interested in conducting climate risk analysis.
Keywords:
climate risk analysis; capital markets department; climate risk; physical capital; productivity change; Climate change; Productivity; Agricultural sector; Natural disasters; Global; North America; Western Europe; Europe
Cover Analytical Notes
Subsidies, Trade, and International Cooperation
International Monetary Fund
,
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
, and
World Bank
The international organizations (IOs) authoring this report can strengthen their individual and joint work to support governments in this endeavor. While the brunt of this work lies with finance ministries, trade ministries, and sectoral and specialized agencies of national governments, international organizations have key roles to play. The four authoring institutions are examining ways to help, individually and jointly, such as by collecting, organizing, and sharing data, coordinating analytical work agendas to develop methodologies to assess the cross-border effects of different forms of subsidies, and supporting inter-governmental dialogues. This will involve reaching out to and working with other international institutions as well.
Keywords:
OECD matrix; D. OECD export credit provision; WTO secretariat; data IMF Library; B. support measure; publication order; WTO member; Secretary-General of the OECD; Export credits; Government subsidies; Competition; Agricultural sector; Trade systems; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Agricultural Market Integration in India
Michal Andrle
and
Patrick Blagrave
We assess the degree of cross-market price discrepancy (a proxy for market integration), its evolution over time, and proximate determinants, using monthly price data for 21 agricultural goods and 60 markets in India. Econometric analysis shows that cross-market price integration is positively associated with the level of transportation infrastructure, and distance between market pairs. There is no robust evidence that price integration has increased in recent years, suggesting that any positive effects of recent policy initiatives are either small, outweighed by the identified determinants of integration, or yet to come.
Keywords:
WP; market integration; market; markup; cross-market markup; markups vis-à-vis; cross-market dispersion; price integration; cross-market trade; price dispersion; cross-region price discrepancy; Agricultural commodities; Infrastructure; Agricultural sector; Transportation; Global; Price transmission; India
Cover IMF Working Papers
Quality Upgrading and Export Performance in the Asian Growth Miracle
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
,
Fidel Perez-Sebastian
, and
Mr. Nikola Spatafora
We explore the contribution of product-quality upgrading to the export performance of six fast-growing Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand. We focus on measuring the impact of quality upgrading on the changes in these countries’ sectoral export shares during 1970–2010. We build a multisector Ricardian trade model which allows for changes in product quality, and calibrate it to generate predictions about export volumes. Unlike previous literature, our approach allows estimation without employing domestic production data. Our results point to quality upgrading being a key driver of export shares.
Keywords:
WP; marginal product of labor; export share; product quality; quality upgrading; export volume; export change; exports data; product export; Exports; Export performance; Manufacturing; Agricultural commodities; Oil; East Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper discusses various aspects of goods and service tax (GST) on India’s tax policy. Dual rate structure with a low standard rate and an additional higher rate on select items can be progressive and preserve revenue neutrality, while streamlining exemptions would further contribute to progressivity and reduce compliance and administrative costs. Simplifying the GST is possible without imposing a significantly higher burden on the poor. There are likely significant benefits from lower costs of compliance and administration. The literature on value added tax (VAT) compliance costs shows that there is broad variation across countries; however, there is a consensus that compliance costs are regressive and administrative costs increase with complexity. While evidence on India is nascent and remains to be assessed as experience with the GST is gained, anecdotal evidence from large firms indicates sizable increases in costs, which may be even more burdensome for smaller firms. Streamlined rates would also weaken incentives to lobby for lower rates.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; FDI; goods and services tax; market discipline; FDI inflow; rate structure; VAT compliance; FDI liberalization; Foreign direct investment; Agricultural sector; Value-added tax; Agricultural commodities; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper explores key issues affecting the Indian economy and implications for fiscal, monetary, financial sector, and other structural policies. This paper evaluates the build-up of corporate and banking sector vulnerabilities in India, linked to the past macroeconomic slowdown and supply-side bottlenecks, particularly in the infrastructure sector; the nature, scope, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in India; the potential costs and benefits of gold monetization schemes in India; two recent episodes of financial market volatility—the taper tantrum of the summer of 2013 and the China spillover episode of the summer of 2015; effectiveness of India’s capital controls using an arbitrage based approach; the relationship between Indian; and international market prices of cereals.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; China spillover episode; China; asset; labor market; introduced gold monetization scheme; labor market rigidity; bank asset quality; China shock; commodity price outlook; Gold; Capital controls; Capital account; Agricultural commodities; Women; Global; South Asia
Cover Taming Indian Inflation
Taming Indian Inflation
Mr. Paul Cashin
and
Rahul Anand

Abstract

High and persistent inflation has presented serious macroeconomic challenges in India in recent years, increasing the country’s domestic and external vulnerabilities. A number of factors underpin India’s high inflation. This book analyzes various facets of Indian inflation—the causes, consequences, and policies being implemented to manage it. Several chapters are devoted to analyzing and managing food inflation, given its significance in driving overall inflation dynamics in India.

Keywords:
BOOK; food inflation; lending rate; nonfood inflation; inflation expectation; deposit rate; Inflation; Food prices; Agricultural commodities; Consumer price indexes; Income inequality; Global; South Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding India’s Food Inflation: The Role of Demand and Supply Factors
Rahul Anand
,
Naresh Kumar
, and
Mr. Volodymyr Tulin
Over the past decade, India has seen a prolonged period of high inflation, to a large extent driven by persistently-high food inflation. This paper investigates the demand and supply factors behind the contribution of relative food inflation to headline CPI inflation. It concludes that in the absence of a stronger food supply growth response, food inflation may exceed non-food inflation by 2½–3 percentage points per year. The sustainability of a long-term inflation target of 4 percent under India’s recently-adopted flexible inflation targeting framework will depend on enhancing food supply, agricultural market-based pricing, and reducing price distortions. A well-designed cereal buffer stock liquidation policy could also help mitigate food inflation volatility.
Keywords:
WP; food inflation; buffer stock; consumer demand; food price; cereal buffer stocks; monetary policy; India; inflation dynamics; food expenditure; aggregate food demand equation; expenditure elasticity; liquidation policy; commodity price; food category; food inflation volatility; consumer food demand pattern; food demand pressure; Inflation; Agricultural commodities; Food prices; Total expenditures; Global