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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 39 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Agricultural Market Integration in India
Michal Andrle
and
Patrick Blagrave
We assess the degree of cross-market price discrepancy (a proxy for market integration), its evolution over time, and proximate determinants, using monthly price data for 21 agricultural goods and 60 markets in India. Econometric analysis shows that cross-market price integration is positively associated with the level of transportation infrastructure, and distance between market pairs. There is no robust evidence that price integration has increased in recent years, suggesting that any positive effects of recent policy initiatives are either small, outweighed by the identified determinants of integration, or yet to come.
Keywords:
WP; market integration; market; markup; cross-market markup; markups vis-à-vis; cross-market dispersion; price integration; cross-market trade; price dispersion; cross-region price discrepancy; Agricultural commodities; Infrastructure; Agricultural sector; Transportation; Global; Price transmission; India
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Asia Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Asia Pacific
Good Times, Uncertain Times: A Time to Prepare
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Asia is expected to grow by about 5½ percent this year, accounting for nearly two-thirds of global growth, and the region remains the world’s most dynamic by a considerable margin. But despite the strong outlook, policymakers must remain vigilant. While risks around the forecast are broadly balanced for now, they are skewed firmly to the downside over the medium term. Key risks include those of further market corrections—possibly triggered by inflation surprises and/or faster-than-expected monetary tightening in advanced economies—a shift toward protectionist policies, and an increase in geopolitical tensions.

Keywords:
REO; inflation expectation; abbreviation FY; Asia; intangible low-taxed income; IMF's Asia; IMF projection; basis points; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Consumer price indexes; Producer price indexes; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands; PPI inflation; inflation pressure; inflation shock; inflation dynamics; inflation process; spillover effect; trend inflation; long-run inflation expectation; import price inflation; IMF staff calculation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040
Reda Cherif
,
Fuad Hasanov
, and
Aditya Pande
Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.
Keywords:
WP; oil price; oil demand; EV market; graph line; lithium-ion battery; renewable energy; energy transition; electric vehicle; motor vehicles adoption; battery EVs; penetration projection; electric car car industry; project EVs; lifetime cost competitiveness; adoption of EVs; motor-vehicle ownership; Oil; Non-renewable resources; Oil prices; Transportation; Renewable resources; Global
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, March 2017
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This issue of the IMF Research Bulletin features recommended readings from IMF Publications and an update on recent IMF Working Papers and IMF Staff Discussion Notes. It also includes a special announcement welcoming Linda Tesar (University of Michigan) as the new editor of “IMF Economic Review.” The Q&A section explores “Seven Questions on China-Africa Relations” (Luiz Almeida, Wenjie Chen, and Oral Williams). The Research Summaries surveys “Income Polarization in the United States” (Ali Alichi, Kory Kantenga, and Juan Sole); and “The Future Wealth of Nations: World Trade in Services” (Prakash Loungani, Saurabh Mishra, Chris Papageorgiou, and Ke Wang).
Keywords:
IRB; IMF research bulletin; income; SSA commodity exporter; href; shrinking workforce; journal of the IMF; macro-structural policy; IMF research; labor market distortion; Personal income; Service exports; Income distribution; Income inequality; Exports; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Central America
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Asia and Pacific
Building on Asia's Strengths during Turbulent Times
Mr. Ranil M Salgado

Abstract

Although Asia remains a growth leader in the global economy, growth is expected to ease slightly to 5.5 percent during 2016, with countries affected to varying degrees by a still weak global recovery, slowing global trade, and the short-term impact of China’s growth transition. Structural reforms are needed if Asia is to maintain its position in the global economy, including reforms aimed at enhancing productive capacity. Needed reforms range from state-owned enterprise and financial sector reform in China to labor and product market reforms in Japan and reforms to remove supply bottlenecks in India, ASEAN, frontier economies, and small states.

Keywords:
REO; China; economy; commodity; income; Asia; commodity consumption growth; growth transition; income inequality; further growth slowdown; Asia-Pacific economy; Income inequality; Exports; Income distribution; Consumption; Global; Asia and Pacific; Pacific Islands; East Asia; Australia and New Zealand; income share; IMF staff calculation; federal funds rate; inequality trend
Cover IMF Working Papers
Emerging Market Heterogeneity: Insights from Cluster and Taxonomy Analysis
Mr. Zhongxia Zhang
and
Miss Yuan Gao
This paper studies growth patterns in Emerging Market Economies (EMs) from the perspective on clusters and taxonomies. First, it documents developments over the past five decades in EMs and uses a cluster analysis to better understand convergence and the investment-growth nexus. Second, it looks at the performance of EMs since 2000 and develops a taxonomy to classify countries according to their factor endowments as well as their real and financial external linkages. The taxonomy offers insights on growth dynamics pre and post the global financial crisis. Results highlight the high degree of heterogeneity in EMs and the need for more granular and targeted near and long-term policy advice.
Keywords:
WP; cluster; growth rate; EMs; growth cluster; emerging markets; growth; heterogeneity; cluster analysis; taxonomy; net commodity export deficit; groups EMs; unemployment rate; commodity price booms; investment-growth-unemployment nexus; terms of trade shock; investment share; commodity-exporting EMs; EMs group; Total factor productivity; Consumption; Terms of trade; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño
Mr. Paul Cashin
,
Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes
, and
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through thirdmarkets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Niño weather events over time, and their impact on different regions crosssectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Niño shocks on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Niño shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Niño occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño weather episodes.
Keywords:
WP; El Niño shock; primary sector; El Niño weather shocks; oil and non-fuel commodity prices; global macroeconometric modeling; international business cycle; El Niño event; El Niño weather shock; El Niño-economy relationship; El Niño condition; El Niño year; Commodity prices; Inflation; Oil prices; Vector autoregression; Natural disasters; Global; Europe; Africa; South America; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Food Inflation in India: The Role for Monetary Policy
Rahul Anand
,
Ding Ding
, and
Mr. Volodymyr Tulin
Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are estimated to be large. This paper estimates the size of second-round effects using an estimated reduced-form general equilibrium model of the Indian economy, which incorporates pass-through from headline inflation to core inflation. The results indicate that India's inflation is highly inertial and persistent. Due to second-round effects, the gap between headline inflation and core inflation decreases by about three fourths within one year as core inflation catches up with headline inflation. Large second-round effects stem from several factors, such as the high share of food in household expenditure and the role of food inflation in informing inflation expectations and wage setting. Analysis suggests that in order to durably reduce the current high inflation, the monetary policy stance needs to remain tight for a considerable length of time. In addition, progress on structural reforms to raise potential growth is critical to reduce the burden on monetary policy.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; Monetary policy; forecasting; food inflation; India; inflation expectation; inflation dynamics; fuel inflation pass-through; headline CPI inflation equation; Inflation; Output gap; Real exchange rates; Real interest rates; Commodity price shocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Comovement in Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications
Mr. Ron Alquist
and
Mr. Olivier Coibion
We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.
Keywords:
WP; commodity price; palm oil; Commodity prices; comovement; factor models; commodity shock; commodity-price movement; productivity shock; factor loading; forecast evaluation period; Agricultural commodities; Commodity price fluctuations; Oil; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
, and
Mrs. Sarwat Jahan
This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flows. VAR models show that these linkages have increased the share of growth volatility that can be attributed to foreign shocks in LICs. Dynamic panel models further analyze the impact of LIC trade orientation and production structure on the sensitivity to foreign shocks. The empirical results demonstrate that the elasticity of growth to trading partners' growth is high for LICs in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia. However, for commodity-exporting LICs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, terms of trade shocks and demand from the emerging market leaders are the main channels of transmission of foreign shocks.
Keywords:
WP; EM leader; LIC growth prospect; LICS in SSA; MNA region; LICS in Asia; Growth Spillovers; Low-Income Countries; Economic Integration; Decoupling; Vector Autoregression; Panel Estimate; commodity exporter; Spillovers; Exports; Foreign direct investment; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Commodity price fluctuations; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa