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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Advancing India’s Structural Transformation and Catch-up to the Technology Frontier
Cristian Alonso
and
Margaux MacDonald
While India’s growth has been strong in recent decades, its structural transformation remains incomplete. In this paper, we first take stock of India’s growth to date. We find that economic activity has shifted from agriculture to services, but agriculture remains the predominant employer. Catch up to the technological frontier has been uneven, with limited progress in agriculture, but also in construction and trade, which have grown the most in terms of employment. We do find some Indian firms already operating at the technological frontier. These strong performers tend to be large firms. We then consider India’s employment challenge going forward. We find that India needs to create between 143-324 million jobs by 2050 and that doing so and with workers shifting towards more dynamic sectors could boost GDP growth by 0.2-0.5 percentage points. Structural reforms can help India create high-quality jobs and accelerate growth.
Keywords:
Economywide Production; Potential Output; Labor Productivity; Employment; Structural Transformation; Technological Frontier.; frontier employment; India's employment challenge; technology frontier; growth decomposition; IMF staff estimate; industry level; Agricultural sector; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Diversification Strategy for South Asia
Weicheng Lian
,
Fei Liu
,
Katsiaryna Svirydzenka
, and
Biying Zhu
While South Asia has gone a long way in diversifying their economies, there is substantial scope to do more. Some countries – India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka – can build on their existing production capabilities; others – Bangladesh, Bhutan, and the Maldives – would need to undertake a more concerted push. We identify key policies from a large set of potential determinants that explain the variation in export diversification and complexity across 189 countries from 1962 to 2018. Our analysis suggests that South Asia needs to invest in infrastructure, education, and R&D, facilitate bank credit to productive companies, and open to trade in order to diversify and move up the value chains. Given the COVID-19 pandemic, investing in digital technologies as part of the infrastructure push and improving education are of even greater importance to facilitate the ability to work remotely and assist resource reallocation away from the less viable sectors.
Keywords:
summary statistic; outlook index; Economics complexity; South Asia's progress; diversification of export; Export diversification; Exports; Infrastructure; Income; South Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
E-commerce as a Potential New Engine for Growth in Asia
Mr. Tidiane Kinda
The use of e-commerce around the world has accelerated in recent years, with Asia, led by China, spearheading the rise. Using cross-country enterprise survey data, this paper shows that firms engaged in e-commerce have higher productivity and generate a larger share of their revenues from exports than other firms. This is particularly true in Asia, where firms have 30 percent higher productivity and generate about 50 percent more of their revenues from exports. The results presented in this paper are robust to the use of instrumental variables, which highlight possible larger effects of e-commerce on Asian productivity and exports when essential elements are in place for its effective use, such as reliable electricity, telecommunication, and transport infrastructure. Despite the rapid growth of e-commerce in recent years, gaps persist in digital infrastructure and legislation, preventing many Asian countries from fully reaping the potential benefits of e-commerce.
Keywords:
WP; e-commerce firm; World Bank enterprises survey; firm performance; way firm; affiliate company; e-commerce; productivity; exports; World Bank enterprises Surveys; TFP of firm; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Measuring the Digital Economy
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Digitalization encompasses a wide range of new applications of information technology in business models and products that are transforming the economy and social interactions. Digitalization is both an enabler and a disruptor of businesses. The lack of a generally agreed definition of the “digital economy” or “digital sector” and the lack of industry and product classification for Internet platforms and associated services are hurdles to measuring the digital economy. This paper distinguishes between the “digital sector” and the increasingly digitalized modern economy, often called the “digital economy,” and focuses on the measurement of the digital sector. The digital sector covers the core activities of digitalization, ICT goods and services, online platforms, and platform-enabled activities such as the sharing economy.
Keywords:
PP; consumer surplus; rate of change; OECD country; capital formation; data user; fixed capital; GDP compiler; imputed income; market production; real GDP; digital economy; source data; cost of living; merchandise trade statistics; production boundary; Digital economy; Sharing economy; Digitalization; Price indexes; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Taxation and the Peer-to-Peer Economy
Aqib Aslam
and
Ms. Alpa Shah
The growth of the peer-to-peer (P2P) economy over the last decade has captivated both stock markets and policymakers alike. While the means for transacting might be different to existing firm structures—with the emergence of digital platforms that connect individual buyers and sellers directly—the tax behavior of individuals operating in this new economy are very familiar. What is clear is that while the P2P economy has potentially exacerbated existing policy, administrative, and revenue-mobilization challenges associated with small business taxation—such as the choice of the tax base and how to set tax thresholds—, the technology behind P2P platforms presents a valuable opportunity to eventually solve them.
Keywords:
WP; tax treatment; value-added tax; gross income; flat rate; goods and services tax; Digital platforms; direct tax; indirect tax; peer-to-peer markets; tax compliance; transaction costs; tax liability; Sharing economy; Personal income; Small and medium enterprises; Income tax systems; Income and capital gains taxes; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Price and Income Elasticity of Indian Exports—The Role of Supply-Side Bottlenecks
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
and
Mr. Volodymyr Tulin
This paper estimates the short-term and long-run price and income elasticity of Indian exports, and investigates the role of supply-side bottlenecks in shaping India’s export demand relationship. We use disaggregated export volume data for 45 Indian industries over the period 1990-2013, as well as industry-specific international relative prices, for estimation. Our results indicate that Indian exports are sensitive to international relative-price competitiveness, world demand, and energy shortages. In addition, binding supply-side constraints (notably energy shortages) dampen price responsiveness in the short-term.
Keywords:
WP; export; price; product; elasticity; India; export demand; manufacturing; income and price elasticity; energy shortages; export demand equation; merchandise export data; goods export; volume indices; elasticity estimate; industries export; export demand function; export destination; income elasticity; disaggregated export datum; export basket; India's export basket; Exports; Export performance; Price elasticity; Personal income; Export prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Make in India: Which Exports Can Drive the Next Wave of Growth?
Rahul Anand
,
Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
, and
Mr. Saurabh Mishra
Structural transformation depends not only on how much countries export but also on what they export and with whom they trade. This paper breaks new ground in analyzing India’s exports by the technological content, quality, sophistication, and complexity of the export basket. We identify five priority areas for policies: (1) reduction of trade costs, at and behind the border; (2) further liberalization of FDI including through simplification of regulations and procedures; (3) improving infrastructure including in urban areas to enhance manufacturing and services in cities; (4) preparing labor resources (skills) and markets (flexibility) for the technological progress that will shape jobs in the years ahead; and (5) creating an enabling environment for innovation and entrepreneurship to draw the economy into higher productivity activities.
Keywords:
WP; product space; export basket; service export sophistication; export product; Indian export; merchandise export; service exports exhibit; India; Exports; Manufacturing; Services; Growth; Trade; Innovations; product space network; vis-a-vis peer EMs; network map; network map of merchandise export; space network map of merchandise export; Service exports; Comparative advantage; Personal income; Global; East Asia; Middle East; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Structural Transformation and the sophistication of Production
Mr. Nikola Spatafora
,
Rahul Anand
, and
Mr. Saurabh Mishra
A new dataset on export sophistication reveals that in many countries the importance of modern services, and the sophistication of manufactured and service exports, has increased over time. However, this trend was less pronounced in LICs. Sophisticated sectors are more likely to act as a catalyst for broad-based economic growth, rather than turning into isolated enclaves, when the economy is liberalized, the exchange rate is not overvalued, and there are good information flows. An educated workforce, external liberalization, and good information flows are important prerequisites for developing sophisticated goods and services. An appropriate macroeconomic policy is particularly important for goods, skilled labor and good information flows for services.
Keywords:
WP; export sophistication; service export; export basket; resource export; goods export; Structural Transformation; Sophistication of Production; Service Exports; exports of goods; Exports; Manufacturing; Export performance; Human capital; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
India's Pattern of Development: What Happened, What Follows?
Mr. Arvind Subramanian
,
Raghuram Rajan
,
Mr. Ioannis Tokatlidis
,
Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
, and
Mr. Utsav Kumar
India has followed an idiosyncratic pattern of development, certainly compared with other fast-growing Asian economies. While the importance of services rather than manufacturing is widely noted, within manufacturing India has emphasized skill-intensive rather than laborintensive manufacturing, and industries with higher-than-average scale. Some of these distinctive patterns existed prior to the beginning of economic reforms in the 1980s, and stem from the idiosyncratic policies adopted after India's independence. Using the growth of fastmoving Indian states as a guide, we conclude that India may not revert to the pattern followed by other countries, despite reforms that have removed some policy impediments that contributed to India's distinctive path.
Keywords:
WP; private sector; labor intensity; India indicator; industry effect; NSDP growth; Manufacturing; Services; Diversification; Decentralization; Liberalization; Skill Intensity; Scale; labor-intensive industry; Income; Public sector; Employment; East Asia