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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 19 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Dynamic Development Accounting and Relative Income Traps
Patrick A. Imam
and
Jonathan R. W. Temple
Previous research suggests that economy-wide poverty traps are rarely observed in the data. In this paper, we explore a related hypothesis: low-income countries rarely improve their position relative to the US. Using finite state Markov chains, we show that upwards mobility is indeed limited. Since capital-output ratios are similar across countries, and human capital is also converging, the persistence of low relative income seems to originate in the persistence of low relative TFP. We study the dynamics of relative TFP and how they interact with absolute levels of human capital, casting new light on the future of convergence.
Keywords:
Economic growth; development accounting; low-income trap; poverty trap; income trap; state Markov chains; country sample; OECD member country; relative TFP; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Growth accounting; Income; Capital productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Advancing India’s Structural Transformation and Catch-up to the Technology Frontier
Cristian Alonso
and
Margaux MacDonald
While India’s growth has been strong in recent decades, its structural transformation remains incomplete. In this paper, we first take stock of India’s growth to date. We find that economic activity has shifted from agriculture to services, but agriculture remains the predominant employer. Catch up to the technological frontier has been uneven, with limited progress in agriculture, but also in construction and trade, which have grown the most in terms of employment. We do find some Indian firms already operating at the technological frontier. These strong performers tend to be large firms. We then consider India’s employment challenge going forward. We find that India needs to create between 143-324 million jobs by 2050 and that doing so and with workers shifting towards more dynamic sectors could boost GDP growth by 0.2-0.5 percentage points. Structural reforms can help India create high-quality jobs and accelerate growth.
Keywords:
Economywide Production; Potential Output; Labor Productivity; Employment; Structural Transformation; Technological Frontier.; frontier employment; India's employment challenge; technology frontier; growth decomposition; IMF staff estimate; industry level; Agricultural sector; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unleashing India’s Growth Potential
Shinya Kotera
and
Ms. TengTeng Xu
This paper analyzes the drivers of India’s growth in the past five decades and considers baseline and upside scenarios of India’s medium-term potential growth. Using a production function approach, the paper assesses the impact of the pandemic on the key factors of production and therefore its impact on medium-term growth. Successful implementation of wide-ranging structural reforms could help support productivity and potential growth over the medium term.
Keywords:
India; Potential Growth; Labor Markets; Capital; Productivity; Pandemic; Production Function Approach; Structural Reforms.; upside scenario; TengTeng xu; impact of the pandemic; growth rate; Total factor productivity; COVID-19; Human capital; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Education and Health for Inclusiveness
Mr. Nikola Spatafora
We discuss existing shortfalls and inequalities in the accumulation of human capital—knowledge, skills, and health. We analyze their immediate and systemic causes, and assess the scope for public intervention. The broad policy goals should be to improve: the quality, and not just the quantity, of education and health care; outcomes for disadvantaged groups; and lifelong outcomes. The means to achieve these goals, while maximizing value for money, include: focusing on results rather than just inputs; moving from piecemeal interventions to systemic reform; and adopting a “whole-of-society” approach. Reforms must be underpinned by a robust evidence base.
Keywords:
Inclusive Growth.; WP; primary care; transfer program; basic education; health outcome; complement teacher training; computer-assisted learning; good health; secondary education; Education; Health; Inclusive Growth; Human capital; Health care; Labor force; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Automation, Skills and the Future of Work: What do Workers Think?
Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados
,
Mr. Richard Varghese
,
Vizhdan Boranova
,
Alice deChalendar
, and
Judith Wallenstein
We exploit a survey data set that contains information on how 11,000 workers across advanced and emerging market economies perceive the main forces shaping the future of work. In general, workers feel more positive than negative about automation, especially in emerging markets. We find that negative perceptions about automation are prevalent among workers who are older, poorer, more exposed to job volatility, and from countries with higher levels of robot penetration. Perceptions over automation are positively viewed by workers with higher levels of job satisfaction, higher educational attainment, and from countries with stronger labor protection. Workers with positive perceptions of automation also tend to respond that re-education and retraining will be needed to adapt to rapidly evolving skill demands. These workers expect governments to have a role in shaping the future of work through protection of labor and new forms of social benefits. The demand for protection and benefits is more significant among women and workers that have suffered job volatility.
Keywords:
WP; worker; Automation; Future of Work; Robotization; Education; Reskilling; Retraining; more-on-the job training; employment characteristic; job happiness; middle-age worker; Emerging technologies; Labor markets; Europe; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
E-commerce as a Potential New Engine for Growth in Asia
Mr. Tidiane Kinda
The use of e-commerce around the world has accelerated in recent years, with Asia, led by China, spearheading the rise. Using cross-country enterprise survey data, this paper shows that firms engaged in e-commerce have higher productivity and generate a larger share of their revenues from exports than other firms. This is particularly true in Asia, where firms have 30 percent higher productivity and generate about 50 percent more of their revenues from exports. The results presented in this paper are robust to the use of instrumental variables, which highlight possible larger effects of e-commerce on Asian productivity and exports when essential elements are in place for its effective use, such as reliable electricity, telecommunication, and transport infrastructure. Despite the rapid growth of e-commerce in recent years, gaps persist in digital infrastructure and legislation, preventing many Asian countries from fully reaping the potential benefits of e-commerce.
Keywords:
WP; e-commerce firm; World Bank enterprises survey; firm performance; way firm; affiliate company; e-commerce; productivity; exports; World Bank enterprises Surveys; TFP of firm; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Losing to Blackouts: Evidence from Firm Level Data
Daniel Gurara
and
Dawit Tessema
Many developing economies are often hit by electricity crises either because of supply constraints or lacking in broader energy market reforms. This study uses manufacturing firm census data from Ethiopia to identify productivity losses attributable to power disruptions. Our estimates show that these disruptions, on average, result in productivity losses of about 4–10 percent. We found nonlinear productivity losses at different quantiles along the productivity distribution. Firms at higher quantiles faced higher losses compared to firms around the median. We observed patterns of systematic shutdowns as firms attempt to minimize losses.
Keywords:
WP; production function; productivity loss; Power disruption; Shutdowns; time index; productivity shock; firms shutdown; grid-power consumption; firm age; panel data; state utility company; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Electricity; Labor productivity; Capacity utilization; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Asia and Pacific
Preparing for Choppy Seas
Mr. Ranil M Salgado

Abstract

The Asia-Pacific region continues to be the world leader in growth, and recent data point to a pickup in momentum. We expect the region to expand by 5.5 percent in 2017, up from 5.3 percent in 2016. Accommodative policies will underpin domestic demand, offsetting tighter global financial conditions. However, the risks to the outlook, on balance, are slanted to the downside. A possible shift toward protectionism in major trading partners could suppress Asia’s trade, while the continued tightening of global financial conditions and economic uncertainty could trigger capital flow volatility. A bumpier-than-expected transition in China would also have large negative spillovers to the region. Beyond the short term, many parts of Asia face secular headwinds from population aging and slow productivity growth. These challenges call for domestic policies that support growth while boosting resilience and inclusiveness. To sustain long-term growth, structural reforms are needed to deal with challenges from demographic transition and to boost productivity.

Keywords:
REO; dividend; economy; productivity growth; headline inflation; early-dividend country; late-dividend economy; post dividend; IMF staff calculation; Productivity; Aging; Labor productivity; Total factor productivity; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands; East Asia; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
Structural Transformation and the sophistication of Production
Mr. Nikola Spatafora
,
Rahul Anand
, and
Mr. Saurabh Mishra
A new dataset on export sophistication reveals that in many countries the importance of modern services, and the sophistication of manufactured and service exports, has increased over time. However, this trend was less pronounced in LICs. Sophisticated sectors are more likely to act as a catalyst for broad-based economic growth, rather than turning into isolated enclaves, when the economy is liberalized, the exchange rate is not overvalued, and there are good information flows. An educated workforce, external liberalization, and good information flows are important prerequisites for developing sophisticated goods and services. An appropriate macroeconomic policy is particularly important for goods, skilled labor and good information flows for services.
Keywords:
WP; export sophistication; service export; export basket; resource export; goods export; Structural Transformation; Sophistication of Production; Service Exports; exports of goods; Exports; Manufacturing; Export performance; Human capital; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Can International Cricket Teach Us About the Role of Luck in Labor Markets?
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
and
Mr. Rodney Ramcharan
How important is luck in determining labor market outcomes? We address this question using a new dataset of all international test cricketers who debuted between 1950 and 1985. We present evidence that a player’s debut performance is strongly affected by an exogenous source of variation: whether the debut series is played at home or abroad. This allows us to identify the role of luck - factors unrelated to ability - in shaping future career outcomes. We find that players lucky enough to debut at home perform significantly better on debut. Moreover, debut performance has a large and persistent impact on long run career outcomes. We also make headway in empirically distinguishing between competing explanations for why exogenous initial conditions exercise a persistent impact on career performance
Keywords:
WP; debut location; test cricket; batting average; debut performance; debut series; series performance; debut dummy; entry decision; Human capital; Labor markets; Value-added tax; Capital accumulation; Job search and matching assistance; Caribbean