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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Demographic Dividend: Evidence from the Indian States
Mr. Ashoka Mody
and
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
Large cohorts of young adults are poised to add to the working-age population of developing economies. Despite much interest in the consequent growth dividend, the size and circumstances of the potential gains remain under-explored. This study makes progress by focusing on India, which will be the largest individual contributor to the global demographic transition ahead. It exploits the variation in the age structure of the population across Indian states to identify the demographic dividend. The main finding is that there is a large and significant growth impact of both the level and growth rate of the working age ratio. This result is robust to a variety of empirical strategies, including a correction for inter-state migration. The results imply that a substantial fraction of the growth acceleration that India has experienced since the 1980s - sometimes ascribed exclusively to economic reforms - is attributable to changes in the country’s age structure. Moreover, the demographic dividend could add about 2 percentage points per annum to India’s per capita GDP growth over the next two decades. With the future expansion of the working age ratio concentrated in some of India’s poorest states, income convergence may well speed up, a theme likely to recur on the global stage.
Keywords:
WP; age ratio; growth rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Flows and Demographics—An Asian Perspective
Mr. Erik Lueth
This paper calibrates the production functions of 176 countries to fit 2003 data and examines the capital flows that emerge, when labor forces change according to the 2007 UN population projections. It finds that demographic factors are no help in correcting today's global imbalances; that Japan's capital outflows have as much to do with population aging as with the yen carry-trade; and that China is key to understanding Asia's demographic impact on the world. It also finds that Asia offers the greatest arbitrage opportunities worldwide during the demographic transition and has the greatest potential for regional financial integration among world regions. Moreover, the demographic transition is unlikely to result in an asset price meltdown and could even raise world interest rates under perfect capital mobility.
Keywords:
WP; capital; capital flow; Asia; capital exporter
Cover IMF Working Papers
Economic Transformation, Population Growth, and the Long-Run World Income Distribution
Mr. Marcos d Chamon
and
Mr. Michael R Kremer
This paper considers the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries. Whether or not the world economy converges to widespread prosperity depends on the population growth differential between developing and advanced economies, the rate at which countries develop, and potentially on initial conditions. A calibration using historical data suggests that the long-run prospects for lagging developing regions, such as Africa, likely hinge on the sufficiently rapid development of China and India.
Keywords:
WP; small country; Population; growth; economic development; international trade; export opportunity; developing country labor; transaction cost; growth response; advanced country; growth determinant; Population growth; Migration; Personal income; Demographic change; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty: Is Africa Different?
Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides
This paper attempts to identify robust patterns of cross-country growth behavior in the world as a whole and Africa. It employs a novel methodology that incorporates a dynamic panel estimator, and Bayesian Model Averaging to explicitly account for model uncertainty. The findings indicate that: (i) in addition to initial conditions, various economic factors such as higher investment, lower inflation, lower government consumption, better fiscal stance, improved political environment, exogenous terms-of-trade shocks, and fixed geographical factors are robustly correlated with growth; (ii) what is good for growth around the world is, in principle, also good for growth in Africa; and (iii) political and institutional variables are particularly important in explaining African growth.
Keywords:
WP; Economic growth; growth regressions; Bayesian model averaging; dynamic panel estimation; physical capital; Africa sample; repayment ability; growth determinant; land market; panel data systems GMM estimator; civil war; country's authorities; Income; Government consumption; Debt service; Population growth; Africa
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 1984
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper examines the impact of the World Bank on the financial markets and developing countries. The sound financial structure of the Bank rests on its conservative loan-to-capital ratio. Its large liquidity is an assurance to investors in Bank bonds that their investments are assured of liquidity in case the need arises. To cope with their payments difficulties, the heavily indebted developing countries have adopted more cautious fiscal and monetary policies, limited wage increases, and reduced domestic consumption and investment.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; government; World table; Fund; developing country; product share; lending role; world economy in transition; population policy; Population growth; Oil; Exchange rates; Oil prices; Global; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 1973
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper reviews the population policy in developed countries. The paper highlights that despite the weakness of population concerns in most developed countries compared with less-developed countries, most of the former have taken certain actions that affect, or are thought to affect, demographic events. These actions include such measures as appointing official commissions to study the country’s demographic situation and advise the government what to do; providing birth control services as part of the public health system; and so on. This paper also summarizes the conclusions drawn by Dr. Berelson from the 25 country reports.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; birth rate; World bank loan; country; decline assumption; credit from Ida; bank group activity; loan from the bank; Population growth; Exports; Currencies; Western Europe; Africa; Global; Asia and Pacific; North America