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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 20 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis
Allan Dizioli
,
Daniel Rivera Greenwood
, and
Aneta Radzikowski
This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models.
Keywords:
COVID-19; epidemiology modelling; vaccines impact; virus variants and testing; vaccine hesitancy; vaccination data; Google mobility; virus variant; vaccination assumption; COVID-19; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Aging; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Asia and Pacific
Preparing for Choppy Seas
Mr. Ranil M Salgado

Abstract

The Asia-Pacific region continues to be the world leader in growth, and recent data point to a pickup in momentum. We expect the region to expand by 5.5 percent in 2017, up from 5.3 percent in 2016. Accommodative policies will underpin domestic demand, offsetting tighter global financial conditions. However, the risks to the outlook, on balance, are slanted to the downside. A possible shift toward protectionism in major trading partners could suppress Asia’s trade, while the continued tightening of global financial conditions and economic uncertainty could trigger capital flow volatility. A bumpier-than-expected transition in China would also have large negative spillovers to the region. Beyond the short term, many parts of Asia face secular headwinds from population aging and slow productivity growth. These challenges call for domestic policies that support growth while boosting resilience and inclusiveness. To sustain long-term growth, structural reforms are needed to deal with challenges from demographic transition and to boost productivity.

Keywords:
REO; dividend; economy; productivity growth; headline inflation; early-dividend country; late-dividend economy; post dividend; IMF staff calculation; Productivity; Aging; Labor productivity; Total factor productivity; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands; East Asia; Australia and New Zealand
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, March 2017
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper reports about current mainstream growth projections for the United States and the European Union over the medium term represent a marked slowdown from growth rates in the decades prior to the global financial crisis. Slower growth in Europe and the United States has mixed implications for growth prospects in developing economies. Most obviously, on the negative side, it means less demand for these countries’ exports, so models of development based on export-led growth may need to be rethought. In contrast, for Western Europe the narrative is about catch-up growth rather than the rate of cutting-edge technological progress. From the middle of the 20th century to the recent global crisis, this experience comprised three distinct phases. European medium-term growth prospects depend both on how fast productivity grows in the United States and whether catch-up growth can resume after a long hiatus. Economic historians see social capability as a key determinant of success or failure in catch-up growth.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; can money; workforce benefit; productivity growth; utility price; polymer note; pension payment; prices in the shop; Productivity; Non-renewable resources; Income inequality; Aging; Global; Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Europe; East Asia
Cover Finance & Development
Finances & Développement, mars 2016
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finances & Développement, mars 2016
Keywords:
FD; F&D; fertility rate; oil exporter; Brixton pound note; country
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development March 2016
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance and Development March 2016
Keywords:
FD; F&D; fertility rate; oil exporter; Brixton pound note; country
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development March 2016
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance and Development March 2016
Keywords:
FD; F&D; fertility rate; oil exporter; Brixton pound note; country
Cover Finance & Development
Finanzas y Desarrollo, marzo de 2016
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finanzas y Desarrollo, marzo de 2016
Keywords:
FD; F&D; fertility rate; oil exporter; Brixton pound note; country
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development March 2016
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance and Development March 2016
Keywords:
FD; F&D; fertility rate; oil exporter; Brixton pound note; country
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development March 2016
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This article profiles economist David Card, whose work on minimum wages, immigration, and education challenged conventional wisdom. Card rose to prominence in 1995 when he won the coveted John Bates Clark Medal, then awarded every two years by the American Economic Association to the leading economist under the age of 40 who is working in the United States. It is considered the top award in economics barring the Nobel Prize. Through empirical research into a series of “natural experiments”—real-life situations underpinned by robust data—Card challenged conventional economic thinking in several important areas. He found that, unlike in classical models, raising the minimum wage does not necessarily increase unemployment, and even has the potential to reduce it. More than 15 years of research led to a landmark 1993 paper and subsequent book—coauthored with Princeton professor Alan B. Krueger—that analyzed the impact of the minimum wage on the New Jersey fast-food industry.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; fertility rate; oil exporter; Brixton pound note; country; research finding; management skill; IMF portfolio survey; Natural resources; Aging; Inflation; Income inequality; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; East Asia; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Potential Growth in Emerging Asia
Rahul Anand
,
Mr. Kevin C Cheng
,
Sidra Rehman
, and
Ms. Longmei Zhang
Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.
Keywords:
WP; ASEAN economy; China; economy; trend growth; India; potential growth; total factor productivity; emerging Asia; dependency ratio; inflation picture; non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment; production function; Capital accumulation; Inflation; Aging; Labor force participation; Asia and Pacific