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Asia and Pacific > India

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that India is on track to be one of the fastest growing major economies in the world this year, underpinned by prudent macroeconomic policies. Nonetheless, the economy is facing global headwinds, including a global growth slowdown in an increasingly fragmented world. Policy priorities should focus on replenishing fiscal buffers, securing price stability, maintaining financial stability, and accelerating inclusive growth through comprehensive structural reforms while preserving debt sustainability. Elevated public debt calls for ambitious medium-term consolidation, while continuing to prioritize capital spending. This should be complemented with a sound medium-term fiscal framework to promote transparency and accountability and align policies with India’s development goals. In order to reap the benefits of demographic tailwinds, structural policy should focus on promoting high quality job-rich growth, underpinned by comprehensive reform in areas of education, health, land, agriculture, and labor markets, including measures to boost female labor force participation. Continuing investment in infrastructure, strengthening governance, and enhancing a sound business environment are critical.
Keywords:
policy priority; WPI base year; infrastructure program; CPI series; household inflation expectation; gross investment; policy recommendation; financial asset; FDI regime; fund approval; CPI weight; Inflation; Government debt management; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bhutan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bhutan
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The pandemic has had a substantial impact on the economy, straining pre-pandemic gains in income and poverty reduction. The wide-ranging policy measures, including containment protocols, rapid vaccination and booster campaigns, direct income support, and policy support for borrowers and businesses, mitigated the adverse impact on lives and well-being. As the pandemic recedes and in light of the uncertainties from the war in Ukraine, the focus needs to be on securing livelihoods and ensuring strong and job-rich medium-term growth, while minimizing any persistent adverse effects from the pandemic and mitigating risks.
Keywords:
development goal; quarterly balance of payments; income support; FDI investment rule; Five-Year Plans; food price; COVID-19; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; South Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is Mobile Money Part of Money? Understanding the Trends and Measurement
Ms. Kazuko Shirono
,
Esha Chhabra
,
Ms. Bidisha Das
,
Ms. Yingjie Fan
, and
Mr. Hector Carcel Villanova
The rapid uptake of mobile money in recent years has generated new data needs and growing interest in understanding its impact on broad money. This paper reviews mobile money trends using mobile money data from the Financial Access Survey (FAS) and examines the statistical treatment of mobile money under the IMF’s Monetary and Financial Statistics (MFS) framework. MFS guidance is straightforward in most cases, as many jurisdictions have adopted regulations which ensure that mobile money is captured in the banking system and thus in the calculation of broad money. However, in cases where mobile network operators (MNOs) act as niche financial intermediaries outside the banking regulatory perimeter and are allowed to invest their customer funds in sovereign securities and other permitted assets, mobile money liabilities may remain outside the banking system as well as monetary statistics. In that case, information on mobile money liabilities need to be collected directly from MNOs to account for mobile money as part of broad money.
Keywords:
usage pattern; money account; customer funds; value chain; agent outlet; money issuer; measurement issue; monetary value; Mobile banking; Monetary base; Monetary statistics; Financial statistics; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for India
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with India discusses that India has been among the world’s fastest-growing economies in recent years, lifting millions out of poverty. However, growth slowed to a six-year low in the first half of 2019, with both consumption and investment decelerating owing to weak, especially rural, income growth, stresses in the nonbank financial sector, and corporate and environmental regulatory uncertainty. On the external sector, following a rise in vulnerabilities in 2018, stability has returned, anchored by high foreign reserve buffers and a modest current account deficit. With its strong mandate, the new government has an opportunity to reinvigorate the reform agenda aimed at boosting inclusive and sustainable growth. In the near term, given the cyclical weakness of the economy, monetary policy should maintain an easing bias at least until the projected recovery takes hold. Fiscal stimulus should be avoided given fiscal space at risk and revenue losses from the recent corporate income tax rate cut should be offset.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; U.S. dollar; staff report projection; value; U.S. dollar-value; Indian rupee; U.S. dollar value; U.S. dollar exchange rate; CPI series; Government debt management; Fiscal consolidation; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover Fiscal Monitor, October 2019
Fiscal Monitor, October 2019
How to Mitigate Climate Change
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

This report emphasizes the environmental, fiscal, economic, and administrative case for using carbon taxes, or similar pricing schemes such as emission trading systems, to implement climate mitigation strategies. It provides a quantitative framework for understanding their effects and trade-offs with other instruments and applies it to the largest advanced and emerging economies. Alternative approaches, like “feebates” to impose fees on high polluters and give rebates to cleaner energy users, can play an important role when higher energy prices are difficult politically. At the international level, the report calls for a carbon price floor arrangement among large emitters, designed flexibly to accommodate equity considerations and constraints on national policies. The report estimates the consequences of carbon pricing and redistribution of its revenues for inequality across households. Strategies for enhancing the political acceptability of carbon pricing are discussed, along with supporting measures to promote clean technology investments.

Keywords:
FM; term id; firm; nominal GDP; country abbreviation; emission trading system; carbon prices country; tackling debt vulnerability; p LW; cost advantage; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Government finance statistics; Global; Africa; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific; power-generating firm; baseline price; efficiency cost; firms' emission; extraction firm; establishment of standard; emission price requirement; market mechanism; cost estimate; basic rate; floor price; mitigation cost; Climate change; Emissions trading
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bhutan: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bhutan
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bhutan continued to make strides in raising per capita incomes and reducing poverty as it concluded the 11th Five Year Plan in 2018. Notably, poverty declined from 12 percent in 2012 to 8.2 percent, and extreme poverty fell to just 1.5 percent. The country is poised to transition to middle-income status, with per capita incomes at nearly US$3,600 in 2018, up from US$1,100 in 2004. Growth has remained robust, averaging 6 percent over the 11th Plan. In FY2018, growth is expected to slow to 5.8 percent from 7.4 percent in FY2017, reflecting slowing construction activity of hydropower projects set to come on stream in 2018 and beyond.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; real GDP; authority; broad money; GDP deflator; balance of payments; current account deficit; policy challenge; reserve cover; Indian rupee; economy well; quarterly balance of payments; Bhutanese economy; Value-added tax; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Exports; South Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that stability-oriented macroeconomic policies and progress on structural reforms continue to bear fruit in India. Following disruptions related to the November 2016 currency exchange initiative and the July 2017 goods and services tax rollout, growth slowed to 6.7 percent in FY2017/18, but a recovery is under way led by an investment pickup. Headline inflation averaged 3.6 percent in FY2017/18, a 17-year low, reflecting low food prices on a return to normal monsoon rainfall, agriculture sector reforms, subdued domestic demand, and currency appreciation. Growth is forecast to rise to 7.3 percent in FY2018/19 and 7.5 percent in FY2019/20, on strengthening investment and robust private consumption.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; headline inflation; India; government; debt; government approval; household inflation expectation; medium-term headline inflation; upside inflation risk; gross investment; U.S. dollar; Value-added tax; Inflation; Global; Eastern Europe; IMF's transparency policy; Foreign direct investment
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Djibouti: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Djibouti
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights Djibouti’s expansion of its transportation and utilities infrastructure to leverage its strategic location as a shipping hub and host to military bases. The authorities’ development strategy, Vision Djibouti 2035, aims to transform the country into a middle-income economy and a logistics and commercial hub for all of eastern Africa. Growth is estimated to have reached 6.5 percent in 2016, driven by major public sector projects: the railroad to Ethiopia, the construction of several new ports, and a water pipeline from Ethiopia. Inflation rose to 3 percent on average in 2016, reflecting increased food and service prices.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; authority; public enterprise debt; investment project; resident representative; authorities endeavor; TA mission; Public enterprises; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; East Africa; Middle East; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Djibouti: Consultations de 2016 au titre de l'article IV — communiqué de presse ; rapport des services du FMI ; et déclaration de l'administrateur pour Djibouti
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Djibouti développe ses infrastructures afin de tirer parti de sa localisation stratégique ainsi que de promouvoir la croissance, de réduire la pauvreté et de créer des emplois. Les investissements considérables dans les domaines portuaire et ferroviaire, entamés en 2015 et financés principalement par des emprunts auprès d'institutions financières chinoises, présentent des opportunités mais également des risques. La dette publique étant passée de 50 à 85 % du PIB en l'espace de deux ans, les autorités doivent mettre en œuvre rapidement des réformes essentielles. Ces réformes viseraient à transformer le boom actuel des investissements en une croissance forte, inclusive et porteuse d'emplois afin de de réduire la pauvreté et de replacer la dette sur une trajectoire viable, compte tenu du fort risque de surendettement que le pays connaît aujourd'hui. Bien que les autorités se soient clairement approprié ces réformes dans le cadre du programme Vision Djibouti 2035, il n'en est pas moins nécessaire d'assurer une coordination étroite pour en garantir leur bonne application.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; authority
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: Staff Report for The 2015 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that India’s near-term growth outlook has improved, and the balance of risks is now more favorable, helped by increased political certainty, several positive policy actions, improved business confidence, and reduced external vulnerabilities. Growth is projected at 5.6 percent for FY 2014/15, picking up to 6.3 percent in FY 2015/16, as a result of the revival in industrial and investment activity. However, weaknesses in India’s corporate and bank balance sheets will weigh on credit growth, and fiscal restraint and a tight monetary stance will act as headwinds in the near term, offsetting the positive growth impact of the improved commodity terms of trade.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; net portfolio investment inflow; statutory liquidity ratio; policy repo rate; inflation expectation; U.S. dollar; Inflation; Commercial banks; State-owned banks; Public sector; Global; Eastern Europe; South Asia; Africa; Asia and Pacific