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Asia and Pacific > India

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Pitfalls of Protectionism: Import Substitution vs. Export-Oriented Industrial Policy
Reda Cherif
and
Fuad Hasanov
Industrial policies pursued in many developing countries in the 1950s-1970s largely failed while the industrial policies of the Asian Miracles succeeded. We argue that a key factor of success is industrial policy with export orientation in contrast to import substitution. Exporting encouraged competition, economies of scale, innovation, and local integration and provided market signals to policymakers. Even in a large market such as India, import substitution policies in the automotive industry failed because of micromanagement and misaligned incentives. We also analyze the risk tradeoffs involved in various industrial policy strategies and their implications on the 21st century industrial policies. While state interventions may be needed to develop some new capabilities and industries, trade protectionism is neither a necessary nor a sufficient tool and will most likely be counterproductive.
Keywords:
Industrial policy; export orientation; import substitution; growth; diversification; innovation; technology; import substitution policy; D. export orientation; risk tradeoff; policies in India; Policy strategy; Exports; Manufacturing; Imports; Tariffs; Competition; Global; Caribbean; North America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Border Carbon Adjustments: Rationale, Design and Impact
Mr. Michael Keen
,
Ian W.H. Parry
, and
Mr. James Roaf
This paper assesses the rationale, design, and impacts of border carbon adjustments (BCAs). Large disparities in carbon pricing between countries raise concerns about competitiveness and emissions leakage. BCAs are potentially the most effective domestic instrument for addressing these challenges—but design details are critical. For example, limiting coverage of the BCA to energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries facilitates administration, and initially benchmarking BCAs on domestic emissions intensities would ease the transition for trading partners with emission-intensive production. It is also important to consider how to apply BCAs across countries with different approaches to emissions mitigation. BCAs alone do not solve the free-rider problem in carbon pricing, but might be a step to an effective international carbon price floor.
Keywords:
border carbon adjustment; climate mitigation; carbon pricing; competitiveness; emissions leakage; allowance allocation; design issues; World Trade Organization rules.; emissions mitigation; design detail; impacts of border carbon adjustments; EITE industry; Greenhouse gas emissions; Tariffs; Competition; Export subsidies; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade and Inclusive Growth
Ms. Valerie Cerra
This paper surveys the literature on the relationship between international trade and inclusive growth. It examines claims that the rise in inequality in many countries can be attributed to the concurrent rise in trade competition, especially from EMEs like China, spurring trade tensions and protectionist measures. The paper investigates the conflicting literature showing the aggregate benefits of trade versus the adverse and persistent impact of trade, especially import competition, on specific industries and local communities. The paper then reviews the evidence for using trade policies and other complementary policies for adjustment and compensation to those groups adversely affected by trade.
Keywords:
trade; inclusive growth; inequality; globalization; growth; poverty; gender; labor; productivity difference; export-led growth; wage inequality; trade facilitation; trade cost; firm productivity difference; liberalization episode; superstar firm; adjustment policy; trade theory; size firm; trade openness; Exports; Imports; Wages; Tariffs; Trade policy; Global
Cover World Economic Outlook, October 2018
World Economic Outlook, October 2018
Challenges to Steady Growth
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.

Keywords:
WEO; emerging market; inflation expectation; banking crisis; advanced economy; debtor economy; energy demand; Inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Banking crises; Robotics; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; core inflation; crisis trend; headline inflation; output loss; Tariffs; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Liberalization in Peru: Adjustment Costs Amidst High Labor Mobility
Elin Baldárrago
and
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
While trade integration has been an engine of global growth and prosperity, as suggested by theory, some sectors have been negatively affected by increased import competition. We test if this negative effect is significant in a context of high intranational migration, as theory indicates that labor mobility could reduce it. We focus on the 2004-14 period of trade liberalization in Peru (a major beneficiary of trade integration), which allows for methodological improvements relative to similar studies. We find that districts competing with liberalized imports experienced significantly lower growth in consumption per capita despite some emigration in response to increased import competition. This underscores the need to support the “losers of trade liberalization” even amidst high labor mobility.
Keywords:
WP; tariff; liberalization; import; District tariff reduction; Trade Liberalization; Poverty; Peru; tariff reduction; import tariff; district tariff indicator; District level tariff; District tariff; MFN tariff; tariff barrier; poverty gap; imports-competition channel; barriers coverage; tariff line; tariff measure; Tariffs; Imports; Labor mobility; Global; South America
Cover IMF Staff Position Notes
Reaching the MDGs: An Action Plan for Trade
Mr. Brad J. McDonald
,
Rob Gregory
, and
Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek
The actions proposed here focus on trade integration, substantially increasing exports of the poorest countries and helping them to meet the Millennium Development Goals. As the foundation for these ambitions, we emphasize the role of a secure, open global trading environment—strengthened further by concluding the WTO Doha Round. From this base, the poorest countries also need better trade preferences from the advanced and major emerging market countries (EMs). Building the capacity to take advantage of trade opportunities will require support from the international community and policy reforms—such as to trade regimes—by the poorest countries themselves. The Fifteen Point Action Plan proposed here could increase annual exports of the least-developed countries (LDCs) by $10 billion or more, with additional benefits for other Low-Income Countries (LICs).
Keywords:
SPN; preference scheme; LDC export; trade preference; exporters flexibility; LDC beneficiary; policy reform; LIC trade regime; introduced LDC preference; Tariffs; Exports; Valuation; origin and classification; Trade relations; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Factor Immobility and Regional Impacts of Trade Liberalization Evidenceon Poverty From India
Petia Topalova
This paper uses the 1991 Indian trade liberalization to measure the impact of trade liberalization on poverty, and to examine the mechanisms underpinning this impact. Variation in sectoral composition across districts and liberalization intensity across production sectors allows a difference-in-difference approach. Rural districts, in which production sectors more exposed to liberalization were concentrated, experienced slower decline in poverty and lower consumption growth. The impact of liberalization was most pronounced among the least geographically mobile, at the bottom of the income distribution, and in Indian states where inflexible labor laws impeded factor reallocation across sectors.
Keywords:
WP; trade policy; dependent variable; labor market; Poverty; Trade Liberalization; India; Tariff; poverty rate; wage premia; post liberalization indicator; production sector; trade liberalization link; D. trade liberalization; trade liberalization Evidenceon poverty; liberalization dummy; poverty-tariff link; analysis of the trade liberalization-poverty link; trade reform; Tariffs; Consumption; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Adjustment and Human Capital Investments: Evidence from Indian Tariff Reform
Eric V. Edmonds
,
Nina Pavcnik
, and
Petia Topalova
Do the short and medium term adjustment costs associated with trade liberalization influence schooling and child labor decisions? We examine this question in the context of India's 1991 tariff reforms. Overall, in the 1990s, rural India experienced a dramatic increase in schooling and decline in child labor. However, communities that relied heavily on employment in protected industries before liberalization do not experience as large an increase in schooling or decline in child labor. The data suggest that this failure to follow the national trend of increasing schooling and diminishing work is associated with a failure to follow the national trend in poverty reduction. Schooling costs appear to play a large role in this relationship between poverty, schooling, and child labor. Extrapolating from our results, our estimates imply that roughly half of India's rise in schooling and a third of the fall in child labor during the 1990s can be explained by falling poverty and therefore improved capacity to afford schooling.
Keywords:
WP; tariff change; District tariff; schooling cost
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policies, Enforcement, and Customs Evasion: Evidence from India
Ms. Prachi Mishra
,
Mr. Arvind Subramanian
, and
Petia Topalova
We examine the effect of tariff policies on evasion of customs duties, in the context of the trade reform in India of the 1990s. We exploit the variation in tariff rates across time and products to identify the evasion elasticity, namely, the effect of tariffs on evasion, and relate this elasticity to factors related to customs enforcement or the quality of customs institutions. We find a positive and robust effect of tariffs on import tax evasion. We then show that the evasion elasticity is influenced by certain product characteristics that determine how easy it is to detect evasion (with more differentiated products exhibiting a higher evasion elasticity). This evasion elasticity, which we broadly interpret as reflecting the quality of customs administration, has not improved over the 1990s. Finally, our results suggest that the effectiveness of customs in addressing evasion may be better in India than China, although China appears to be catching up over time.
Keywords:
WP; customs duty; customs administration; tariff policy; country X product; customs official
Cover IMF Working Papers
Safta: Living in a World of Regional Trade Agreements
Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado
The paper evaluates the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) within the global structure of overlapping regional trade agreements (RTAs) using a modified gravity equation. First, it examines the effects of the Trade Liberalization Program which started in 2006. SAFTA would have a minor effect on regional trade flows and the impact on custom duties would be a manageable fiscal shock for most members. Second, the paper ranks the trade effects of other potential RTAs for individual South Asian countries and SAFTA: RTAs with North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU) dominate one with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Keywords:
WP; trade creation; trade diversion; SAFTA; RTAs; Trade Liberalization; South Asia; India-Sri Lanka FTA; SAFTA tariff; SAFTA vis-à-vis; SAFTA trade effect; SAFTA member; Tariffs; Trade balance; Imports; Trade barriers; North American Free Trade Agreement