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Asia and Pacific > India

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Asia and Pacific
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery

Keywords:
vaccine rollout; GVC trade; vaccine deployment; pandemic cycle; trade openness; COVID-19; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Trade barriers; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands; North America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade and Inclusive Growth
Ms. Valerie Cerra
This paper surveys the literature on the relationship between international trade and inclusive growth. It examines claims that the rise in inequality in many countries can be attributed to the concurrent rise in trade competition, especially from EMEs like China, spurring trade tensions and protectionist measures. The paper investigates the conflicting literature showing the aggregate benefits of trade versus the adverse and persistent impact of trade, especially import competition, on specific industries and local communities. The paper then reviews the evidence for using trade policies and other complementary policies for adjustment and compensation to those groups adversely affected by trade.
Keywords:
trade; inclusive growth; inequality; globalization; growth; poverty; gender; labor; productivity difference; export-led growth; wage inequality; trade facilitation; trade cost; firm productivity difference; liberalization episode; superstar firm; adjustment policy; trade theory; size firm; trade openness; Exports; Imports; Wages; Tariffs; Trade policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Liberalization in Peru: Adjustment Costs Amidst High Labor Mobility
Elin Baldárrago
and
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
While trade integration has been an engine of global growth and prosperity, as suggested by theory, some sectors have been negatively affected by increased import competition. We test if this negative effect is significant in a context of high intranational migration, as theory indicates that labor mobility could reduce it. We focus on the 2004-14 period of trade liberalization in Peru (a major beneficiary of trade integration), which allows for methodological improvements relative to similar studies. We find that districts competing with liberalized imports experienced significantly lower growth in consumption per capita despite some emigration in response to increased import competition. This underscores the need to support the “losers of trade liberalization” even amidst high labor mobility.
Keywords:
WP; tariff; liberalization; import; District tariff reduction; Trade Liberalization; Poverty; Peru; tariff reduction; import tariff; district tariff indicator; District level tariff; District tariff; MFN tariff; tariff barrier; poverty gap; imports-competition channel; barriers coverage; tariff line; tariff measure; Tariffs; Imports; Labor mobility; Global; South America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Factor Immobility and Regional Impacts of Trade Liberalization Evidenceon Poverty From India
Petia Topalova
This paper uses the 1991 Indian trade liberalization to measure the impact of trade liberalization on poverty, and to examine the mechanisms underpinning this impact. Variation in sectoral composition across districts and liberalization intensity across production sectors allows a difference-in-difference approach. Rural districts, in which production sectors more exposed to liberalization were concentrated, experienced slower decline in poverty and lower consumption growth. The impact of liberalization was most pronounced among the least geographically mobile, at the bottom of the income distribution, and in Indian states where inflexible labor laws impeded factor reallocation across sectors.
Keywords:
WP; trade policy; dependent variable; labor market; Poverty; Trade Liberalization; India; Tariff; poverty rate; wage premia; post liberalization indicator; production sector; trade liberalization link; D. trade liberalization; trade liberalization Evidenceon poverty; liberalization dummy; poverty-tariff link; analysis of the trade liberalization-poverty link; trade reform; Tariffs; Consumption; Europe
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2007
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
IMF research summary on how globalization affects developing countries (by Prachi Mishra and Petia Topalova); country study on Croatia (by Athanasios Vamvakidis); listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during June 2007-January 2008; listing of contents of Vol. 54, Issue No. 3 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; and listing of recent external publications by IMF staff members.
Keywords:
IRB; pricing growth-Indexed bond; Aid-Receiving Countries; Croatia; remittance; exchange rate fluctuation; emerging markets review; resource Economics; forthcoming publication; monetary policy implementation; Remittances; Migration; Wages; Trade liberalization; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe; Middle East; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Safta: Living in a World of Regional Trade Agreements
Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado
The paper evaluates the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) within the global structure of overlapping regional trade agreements (RTAs) using a modified gravity equation. First, it examines the effects of the Trade Liberalization Program which started in 2006. SAFTA would have a minor effect on regional trade flows and the impact on custom duties would be a manageable fiscal shock for most members. Second, the paper ranks the trade effects of other potential RTAs for individual South Asian countries and SAFTA: RTAs with North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU) dominate one with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Keywords:
WP; trade creation; trade diversion; SAFTA; RTAs; Trade Liberalization; South Asia; India-Sri Lanka FTA; SAFTA tariff; SAFTA vis-à-vis; SAFTA trade effect; SAFTA member; Tariffs; Trade balance; Imports; Trade barriers; North American Free Trade Agreement
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, December 2006
Mr. Clinton R. Shiells
,
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
,
Mr. Vladimir Klyuev
, and
Raghuram Rajan
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Keywords:
IRB; GATT accession; Fund; corporate governance system; IMF data standards initiative; IMF Research bulletin; research conference; Trade policy; Comparative advantage; General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; East Africa; Europe; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flows
Shang-Jin Wei
and
Mr. Jiandong Ju
International capital flows from rich to poor countries can be regarded as either too low (the Lucas paradox in a one-sector model) or too high (when compared with the logic of factor price equalization in a two-sector model). To resolve the paradoxes, we introduce a non-neoclassical model which features financial contracts and firm heterogeneity. In our model, free patterns of gross capital flow emerge as a function of the quality of the financial system and the level of protection for property rights(i.e., the risk of expropriation. A poor country with an inefficient financial system but a low expropriation risk may simultaneously experience an outflow of financial capital but an inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI), resulting in a small net flow.
Keywords:
WP; financial system; interest rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines the effect of political instability on economic growth in Nepal. It uses publicly available data on political economy variables for 167 countries worldwide from 1970–2004 to estimate the impact of political instability on growth. The findings reveal that Nepal has witnessed higher political instability compared with other countries in the region. The paper also presents the salient features of political instability and growth for Nepal and other South Asian countries, and the econometric estimates of growth regressions to measure the effect of political instability on economic growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; remittance; Cabinet change; Nepal; cabinet; coefficient estimate; remittance transfer; household remittance; cabinet post; Remittances; Exports; Migration; Trade barriers; South Asia; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact on India of Trade Liberalization in the Textiles and Clothing Sector
Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra
and
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
We analyze the impact of the elimination of textile and clothing (T&C) quotas in 2005 on India. Our simulations suggest that while Indian exports of T&C will continue to expand in the presence of the safeguards on China, they will be affected adversely once these safeguards are lifted. We argue that India could emerge much stronger and expand its trade in T&C at a much faster pace, if some of the key domestic structural weaknesses are overcome.
Keywords:
WP; market share; quota elimination; ATC quota; textile industry; textile and clothing export