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Asia and Pacific > India

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Australia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines monetary policy transmission via three lenses in Australia. The paper finds that while macroeconomic dynamics in Australia in the current tightening cycle have not differed significantly from historical experience and from experiences in other major AEs, the resilience of Australia’s economy in recent years is remarkable, as evidenced by persistently tight labor markets. Second, several features of the Australian housing market, most notably the high prevalence of variable rate mortgages, may strengthen monetary policy transmission to households relative to other AEs. Lastly, we find that firm investment in Australia’s nonextractive sector is strongly sensitive to monetary policy changes; the sensitivity is more pronounced for firms with less liquidity, higher leverage, and higher reliance on bank and short-term financing. We highlight how resilience in Australian corporate balance sheets in recent years may have helped soften monetary policy transmission to investment in the current cycle.
Keywords:
monetary policy shock; heterogeneity in monetary policy TRANSMISSION; industries in Australia; domestic energy transition; fossil fuel demand; Non-renewable resources; Monetary tightening; Renewable energy; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Framework for Climate Change Mitigation in India
Jean Chateau
,
Geetika Dang
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
John A Spray
, and
Sneha D Thube
Climate change poses challenging policy tradeoffs for India. The country faces the challenge of raising living standards for a population of 1.4 billion while at the same time needing to be a critical contributor to reducing global GHG emissions. The government has implemented numerous policies to promote the manufacturing and use of renewable energy and shift away from coal, but much still needs to be done to reach India’s 2070 net zero goal. Reducing GHG emissions will almost certainly have a negative impact on growth in the short run and have important distributional consequences for individuals and communities who today rely on coal. But with the right policies, these costs—which are non-negligible but dwarfed by the cost of climate change over the next decade if no action is taken—can be significantly curtailed. This paper provides an in depth review of the current climate policy landscape in India and models emissions trajectories under different policy options to reduce GHG emissions.
Keywords:
Climate; IMF-ENV; India; net zero; climate policy landscape; research department; cost of climate change; emissions intensity; demand management; Greenhouse gas emissions; Renewable energy; Climate finance; Non-renewable resources; Electricity; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate Policy Options: A Comparison of Economic Performance
Jean Chateau
,
Ms. Florence Jaumotte
, and
Gregor Schwerhoff
We use a global computable general equilibrium model to compare the economic performance of alternative climate policies along multiple dimensions, including macroeconomic outcomes, energy prices, and trade competitiveness. Carbon pricing which keeps the aggregate cost lower and preserves better the overall competitiveness than across-the-board regulation is the first-best policy, especially in energy intensive and trade exposed industries. Regulations and feebates are good alternatives in the power sector, where technological substitution is possible. Feed-in subsidies, if used alone, are not cost effective.
Keywords:
Climate policy; policy coordination; carbon leakage; carbon tax; regulation.; climate policy option; Policy stringency; EITE sectors scenario; ambition level; Policy instrument; Greenhouse gas emissions; Non-renewable resources; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Jobs Impact of Green Energy
Jaden Kim
and
Mr. Adil Mohommad
This brief paper accompanies the Green Energy and Jobs tool, which is a simple excel-based tool to estimate the job-creation potential of greening the electricity sector. Specifically, it calculates the net job gains or losses from increasing the level of energy efficiency, and from increasing the share of clean and renewable electricity generation in the total electricity output mix. The tool relies on estimates of job multipliers in the literature, and adds evidence from firm-level data on the job-intensity of different energy sources. The paper illustrates applications of the tool using data from the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario compared to business-as-usual. This tool is intended to help country teams engage further on climate change issues in bilateral surveillance.
Keywords:
Renewable energy; jobs; sustainable development; jobs tool; net job gain; job multiplier; electricity sector; electricity generation; Electricity; Non-renewable resources; Job creation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies
Ian W.H. Parry
,
Mr. Simon Black
, and
Nate Vernon
This paper provides a comprehensive global, regional, and country-level update of: (i) efficient fossil fuel prices to reflect their full private and social costs; and (ii) subsidies implied by mispricing fuels. The methodology improves over previous IMF analyses through more sophisticated estimation of costs and impacts of reform. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8 percent of GDP, and are expected to rise to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2025. Just 8 percent of the 2020 subsidy reflects undercharging for supply costs (explicit subsidies) and 92 percent for undercharging for environmental costs and foregone consumption taxes (implicit subsidies). Efficient fuel pricing in 2025 would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions 36 percent below baseline levels, which is in line with keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees, while raising revenues worth 3.8 percent of global GDP and preventing 0.9 million local air pollution deaths. Accompanying spreadsheets provide detailed results for 191 countries.
Keywords:
fossil fuel subsidies; efficient fuel prices; supply costs; climate change; local air pollution mortality; revenue gains; spreadsheet tools.; fossil fuel subsidy; supply cost; price reform; fossil fuel; fuel user price; Non-renewable resources; Fuel prices; Energy subsidies; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, September 2021
International Monetary Fund
Finance and Development, September 2021
Keywords:
IEA report; IMF staff research; emissions target; Bitcoin mining; climate threat; Climate change; Climate finance; Greenhouse gas emissions; Virtual currencies; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Pacific Islands; Sub-Saharan Africa; pricing carbon; bitcoin rival Ethereum
Cover IMF Working Papers
Mitigating Climate Change: Growth-Friendly Policies to Achieve Net Zero Emissions by 2050
Ms. Florence Jaumotte
,
Weifeng Liu
, and
Warwick J. McKibbin
Background paper prepared for the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook. This paper provides a detailed presentation of the simulation results from the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook chapter 3 and an additional scenario with carbon pricing only for comparison with the comprehensive policy package where green investments were also included. This paper has greatly benefitted from continuous discussions with Oya Celasun and Benjamin Carton on the design of simulations; contributions from Philip Barrett for part of the simulations; and research support from Jaden Kim. We also received helpful comments from other IMF staff. All remaining errors are ours. McKibbin and Liu acknowledge financial support from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CE170100005).
Keywords:
policy package; climate mitigation strategy; baseline CO2 emission; scenario design; B. Policy tool; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Non-renewable resources; Climate finance; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Employment Effects of Environmental Policies – Evidence From Firm-Level Data
Mr. Adil Mohommad
The employment impact of environmental policies is an important question for policy makers. We examine the effect of increasing the stringency of environmental policy across a broad set of policies on firms’ labor demand, in a novel identification approach using Worldscope data from 31 countries on firm-level CO2 emissions. Drawing on evidence from as many as 5300 firms over 15 years and the OECD environmental policy stringency (EPS) index, it finds that high emission-intensity firms reduce labor demand upon impact as EPS is tightened, whereas low emission-intensity firms increase labor demand, indicating a reallocation of employment. Moreover, tightening EPS during economic contractions appears to have a positive effect on employment, other things equal. Quantifications exercises show modest positive net changes in employment for market-based policies, and modest negative net changes for non-market policies (mainly emission quantity regulations) and for the combined aggregate EPS. Within market-based policies, the percent decline in employment in high-emission firms (correspondingly the increase in low-emission firms) for a unit change in a policy index is smallest (largest) for trading schemes (“green” certificates, and “white” certificates)—although stringency is not comparable across indices. Finally, the employment effects of EPS are not persistent.
Keywords:
IMF working paper research Department; employment effect; emission-intensity firm; policy index; intensity firm; Employment; Environmental policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Labor demand; Non-renewable resources; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Implementing the United States’ Domestic and International Climate Mitigation Goals: A Supportive Fiscal Policy Approach
Ian W.H. Parry
The United States has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050, meet sectoral objectives (e.g., for carbon free power, electric vehicles) and encourage greater mitigation among large emitting countries and of international transportation emissions. Fiscal policies at the national, sectoral, and international level could play a critical role in implementing these objectives, along with investment, regulatory, and technology policies. Fiscal instruments are cost-effective, can enhance political acceptability, and do not worsen, or could help alleviate, budgetary pressures. Domestically, a fiscal policy package could contain a mix of economy-wide carbon pricing and revenue-neutral feebates (i.e., tax-subsidy schemes) with the latter reinforcing mitigation in the transport, power, industrial, building, forestry, and agricultural sectors. Internationally, a carbon price floor among large emitters (with flexibility to implement equivalent measures) could effectively scale up global mitigation, while levies/feebates offer a practical approach for reducing maritime and aviation emissions.
Keywords:
Climate change; carbon neutrality; US climate mitigation; carbon pricing; feebates; carbon price floor; international aviation and maritime.; WP; efficiency cost o n; feebate variant; fuel economy; mitigation cost; international aviation and maritime; emission rate; sliding scale; cost increase; feebate scheme; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Non-renewable resources; Natural gas sector; Fuel prices; Global; Africa
Cover World Economic Outlook, October 2020
World Economic Outlook, October 2020
A Long and Difficult Ascent
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

Keywords:
pandemic; great locdown; climate; climate mitigation; recession; COVID-19; WEO; commodity market development; IMF executive board discussion; debtor economy; lockdown measure; advanced economy