Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Demographic transition x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Asia and Pacific
Preparing for Choppy Seas
Mr. Ranil M Salgado

Abstract

The Asia-Pacific region continues to be the world leader in growth, and recent data point to a pickup in momentum. We expect the region to expand by 5.5 percent in 2017, up from 5.3 percent in 2016. Accommodative policies will underpin domestic demand, offsetting tighter global financial conditions. However, the risks to the outlook, on balance, are slanted to the downside. A possible shift toward protectionism in major trading partners could suppress Asia’s trade, while the continued tightening of global financial conditions and economic uncertainty could trigger capital flow volatility. A bumpier-than-expected transition in China would also have large negative spillovers to the region. Beyond the short term, many parts of Asia face secular headwinds from population aging and slow productivity growth. These challenges call for domestic policies that support growth while boosting resilience and inclusiveness. To sustain long-term growth, structural reforms are needed to deal with challenges from demographic transition and to boost productivity.

Keywords:
REO; dividend; economy; productivity growth; headline inflation; early-dividend country; late-dividend economy; post dividend; IMF staff calculation; Productivity; Aging; Labor productivity; Total factor productivity; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands; East Asia; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Demographic Dividend: Evidence from the Indian States
Mr. Ashoka Mody
and
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
Large cohorts of young adults are poised to add to the working-age population of developing economies. Despite much interest in the consequent growth dividend, the size and circumstances of the potential gains remain under-explored. This study makes progress by focusing on India, which will be the largest individual contributor to the global demographic transition ahead. It exploits the variation in the age structure of the population across Indian states to identify the demographic dividend. The main finding is that there is a large and significant growth impact of both the level and growth rate of the working age ratio. This result is robust to a variety of empirical strategies, including a correction for inter-state migration. The results imply that a substantial fraction of the growth acceleration that India has experienced since the 1980s - sometimes ascribed exclusively to economic reforms - is attributable to changes in the country’s age structure. Moreover, the demographic dividend could add about 2 percentage points per annum to India’s per capita GDP growth over the next two decades. With the future expansion of the working age ratio concentrated in some of India’s poorest states, income convergence may well speed up, a theme likely to recur on the global stage.
Keywords:
WP; age ratio; growth rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Flows and Demographics—An Asian Perspective
Mr. Erik Lueth
This paper calibrates the production functions of 176 countries to fit 2003 data and examines the capital flows that emerge, when labor forces change according to the 2007 UN population projections. It finds that demographic factors are no help in correcting today's global imbalances; that Japan's capital outflows have as much to do with population aging as with the yen carry-trade; and that China is key to understanding Asia's demographic impact on the world. It also finds that Asia offers the greatest arbitrage opportunities worldwide during the demographic transition and has the greatest potential for regional financial integration among world regions. Moreover, the demographic transition is unlikely to result in an asset price meltdown and could even raise world interest rates under perfect capital mobility.
Keywords:
WP; capital; capital flow; Asia; capital exporter
Cover IMF Working Papers
Economic Transformation, Population Growth, and the Long-Run World Income Distribution
Mr. Marcos d Chamon
and
Mr. Michael R Kremer
This paper considers the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries. Whether or not the world economy converges to widespread prosperity depends on the population growth differential between developing and advanced economies, the rate at which countries develop, and potentially on initial conditions. A calibration using historical data suggests that the long-run prospects for lagging developing regions, such as Africa, likely hinge on the sufficiently rapid development of China and India.
Keywords:
WP; small country; Population; growth; economic development; international trade; export opportunity; developing country labor; transaction cost; growth response; advanced country; growth determinant; Population growth; Migration; Personal income; Demographic change; Global