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Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Unveiling the Informal Economy: An Augmented Factor Model Approach
Jiaxiong Yao
This paper develops a new approach to estimating the degree of informality in an economy. It combines direct yet infrequent measures of the informal economy in micro data with an augmented factor model that links macro indicators of the informal economy to its causes. We show that the prevailing model used in the literature, the multiple indicators multiple causes model, is a special case of the augmented factor model and depicts an incomplete picture of the informal economy. Using the augmented factor model approach, we show that the dynamics of the informal economy is shaped by the strength of overall economic activity as well as the interplay between the formal and informal economies. Contrary to previous work that typically finds declining informality for most countries, we find that the degree of informality has increased for low-income countries for the past two decades.
Keywords:
Informality; augmented factor model; MIMIC model; survey data; indicators of the informal economy; WBES data; D. adding nighttime; nighttime Light; component analysis; Informal economy; Factor models; Monetary base; Electricity; Consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Poverty Estimates: A Sensitivity Analysis
Ms. Camelia Minoiu
and
Ms. Shatakshee Dhongde
Current estimates of global poverty vary substantially across studies. In this paper we undertake a novel sensitivity analysis to highlight the importance of methodological choices in estimating global poverty. We measure global poverty using different data sources, parametric and nonparametric estimation methods, and multiple poverty lines. Our results indicate that estimates of global poverty vary significantly when they are based alternately on data from household surveys versus national accounts but are relatively consistent across different estimation methods. The decline in poverty over the past decade is found to be robust across methodological choices.
Keywords:
WP; poverty estimate; sensitivity analysis; global poverty; household surveys; national accounts; income distribution; international poverty line; consumption poverty; density function; day poverty line; kernel density estimation; nonparametric estimation method; estimate poverty; Personal income; Consumption; Estimation techniques; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time
Mr. Troy D Matheson
We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP
Cover IMF Working Papers
Kernel Density Estimation Based on Grouped Data: The Case of Poverty Assessment
Ms. Camelia Minoiu
and
Sanjay Reddy
We analyze the performance of kernel density methods applied to grouped data to estimate poverty (as applied in Sala-i-Martin, 2006, QJE). Using Monte Carlo simulations and household surveys, we find that the technique gives rise to biases in poverty estimates, the sign and magnitude of which vary with the bandwidth, the kernel, the number of datapoints, and across poverty lines. Depending on the chosen bandwidth, the $1/day poverty rate in 2000 varies by a factor of 1.8, while the $2/day headcount in 2000 varies by 287 million people. Our findings challenge the validity and robustness of poverty estimates derived through kernel density estimation on grouped data.
Keywords:
WP; poverty estimate; density estimate; kernel density estimation; headcount ratio; standard deviation
Cover Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Forging New Trade Links with Asia
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
,
Mr. Kevin J Carey
, and
Mr. Ulrich Jacoby

Abstract

What is the impact on trade in sub-Saharan Africa of the recent rapid growth in China and other Asian countries, and the associated commodity price boom? This paper looks at how trading patterns (both destinations and composition) are changing in sub-Saharan Africa. Has the region managed to diversify the products it sells from commodities to manufactured goods? Has it expanded the range of countries to which it exports? And what about the import side? The time is ripe for sub-Saharan African countries to climb up the value chain of their commodity-based exports and/or achieve an export surge based on labor-intensive manufacturing.

Keywords:
ISI; SI; trade; Comtrade data; export; export share; nonfuel export; sub-Saharan Africa opportunity; data quality problem; Exports; Imports; Manufacturing; Gravity models; Trade balance; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Global; East Asia; sub-Saharan Africa's trading partners; export surge; Sub-Saharan Africa's share; exports to Asia; markets in sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Health Aid and Infant Mortality
David Locke Newhouse
and
Ms. Prachi Mishra
This paper examines the relationship between health aid and infant mortality, using data from 118 countries between 1973 and 2004. Health aid has a statistically significant effect on infant mortality: doubling per capita health aid is associated with a 2 percent reduction in the infant mortality rate. For the average country, this implies that increasing per capita health aid by US$1.60 per year is associated with 1.5 fewer infant deaths per thousand births. The estimated effect is small, relative to the targets envisioned by the Millennium Development Goals.
Keywords:
WP; health aid; infant mortality
Cover IMF Working Papers
Democracy and Foreign Education
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
Do foreign-educated individuals play a role in promoting democracy in their home countries? Despite the large amount of private and public resources spent on foreign education, there is no systematic evidence that foreign-educated individuals foster democracy in their home countries. Using a unique panel dataset on foreign students starting from 1950, I show that, indeed, foreign-educated individuals promote democracy in their home country, but only if the foreign education is acquired in democratic countries. The results are robust to reverse causality, country-specific omitted variables, and inclusion of a variety of control variables. The results are stronger for small countries.
Keywords:
WP; host country; dependent variable; number of student
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, June 2004
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Keywords:
IRB; DSGE model; monetary policy rule; Canada; global economy model; workshop on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium; forecasting commodity price; IMF staff; North American Free Trade Agreement; International reserves; Business cycles; Trade balance; Trade agreements; North America; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa