Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Asia and Pacific > India

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 223 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Foreign Exchange x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Prudent macroeconomic policies have supported India’s economic resilience, with growth expected to recover from a recent softening and inflation expected to converge to target. Risks to the outlook include deepening geoeconomic fragmentation and a slower pace of domestic demand recovery.
Keywords:
IMF article; headline inflation; fund approval; gross investment; potential GDP; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Capital spending; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Foreign Exchange Intervention Under the Integrated Policy Framework: The Case of India
Jesper Lindé
,
Patrick Schneider
,
Nujin Suphaphiphat
, and
Hou Wang
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in mitigating economic and financial shocks in India by applying the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF). It highlights how FXI can be a complementary tool in mitigating the tradeoff between output and inflation, specifically under large economic shocks amid temporarily shallow FX markets. The paper indicates that while FXI can soften adverse impacts on domestic demand and output during severe risk-off shocks, its benefits under normal conditions with liquid FX markets are limited.
Keywords:
Integrated policy framework; foreign exchange intervention; risk-off shocks; EM FX intervention proxy; RBI FX intervention; FX Market development; OTC FX turnover; rate Policy; Currency markets; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
Mauro Cazzaniga
,
Florence Jaumotte
,
Longji Li
,
Giovanni Melina
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Carlo Pizzinelli
,
Emma J Rockall
, and
Marina Mendes Tavares
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape the global economy, especially in the realm of labor markets. Advanced economies will experience the benefits and pitfalls of AI sooner than emerging market and developing economies, largely due to their employment structure focused on cognitive-intensive roles. There are some consistent patterns concerning AI exposure, with women and college-educated individuals more exposed but also better poised to reap AI benefits, and older workers potentially less able to adapt to the new technology. Labor income inequality may increase if the complementarity between AI and high-income workers is strong, while capital returns will increase wealth inequality. However, if productivity gains are sufficiently large, income levels could surge for most workers. In this evolving landscape, advanced economies and more developed emerging markets need to focus on upgrading regulatory frameworks and supporting labor reallocation, while safeguarding those adversely affected. Emerging market and developing economies should prioritize developing digital infrastructure and digital skills
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence; Labor Market; Job Displacement; Income Inequality; Advanced Economies; Emerging Market Economies; Low-Income Developing Countries; AI preparedness index; AI benefit; AI exposure; ICT employment share; AI adoption; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Income; Global; Africa
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Is the Paris Agreement Working? A Stocktake of Global Climate Mitigation
Mr. Simon Black
,
Ian W.H. Parry
, and
Karlygash Zhunussova
Urgent and aggressive action to cut greenhouse gas emissions this decade is needed. As countries take stock of the Paris Agreement, this Note provides IMF staff’s annual assessment of global climate mitigation policy. Global ambition needs to be more than quadrupled: emissions cuts of 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 are needed for 1.5 degrees Celsius, but current targets would only achieve 11 percent. We provide options for ratcheting-up ambition equitably. Implementation could be accelerated via agreements on minimum carbon prices. Drastic increases in mitigation investment are needed, requiring policies to shift private sector incentives. Climate finance should be scaled-up, with a new goal aligned with needs in developing countries. The development and diffusion of low-carbon technologies should be accelerated collaboratively. Overall, the Paris Agreement is making progress, but a response to the Global Stocktake that prioritizes decisive action this decade is critical.
Keywords:
Paris Agreement; climate mitigation; carbon pricing; climate finance; low-carbon technology; climate investment; IMF staff climate note; IMF staff climate NOTE 2023/002; mitigation policy; Policy package; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2021 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Maldives is recovering after the historical 2020 fall in tourism, aided by a rapid coronavirus disease 2019-vaccination program rollout. While the prompt and comprehensive policy approach in early 2020 was effective, a more prolonged pandemic and ambitious infrastructure projects are further weakening large pre-pandemic fiscal and external vulnerabilities. The strong (but still partial) recovery in tourism since 2020Q4 has improved the outlook, but fiscal and external positions are projected to remain weak over the medium term, underpinned by current capital expenditure plans. The Maldives has both a high risk of external debt distress and high overall risk of debt distress. The team agreed that a tighter monetary policy stance might be needed to ensure compatibility with the exchange rate peg, lower external imbalances and build-up reserves. They supported the Maldives Monetary Authority’s ongoing efforts to modernize monetary policy and the foreign exchange operations framework, including those aimed at eliminating exchange rate restrictions and multiple currency practices.
Keywords:
positivity rate; program rollout; MMA authorities; staff projection; staff supplement; Maldivian authorities; MMA advance; COVID-19; Capital spending; South Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility. The authorities’ commitment to macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline under the program is starting to bear fruit. The economy is stabilizing as exchange rate pressures have eased and inflation, while still high, is on a downward trend. The authorities’ main near-term policy priority is to maintain fiscal prudence while protecting the most vulnerable and supporting growth-enhancing investment. Decisive fiscal adjustment is putting debt on a firm downward trajectory even as expenditures to protect the vulnerable are being prioritized. Monetary and fiscal restraints are easing pressures on the exchange rate, but inflation has yet to move decisively lower. Efforts are underway to broaden the tax base, increase spending efficiency, improve governance, and address longstanding vulnerabilities in the financial system. The authorities have enacted an amendment to increase value added tax revenues and have finalized a framework to assess banks’ recapitalization and restructuring plans.
Keywords:
end-December QPC; staff appraisal; near-term policy priority; governance reform; Surinamese authorities; Arrears; Inflation; Debt restructuring; Caribbean; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Mr. Zamid Aligishiev
,
Ms. Gabriela Cugat
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Davide Furceri
,
João Tovar Jalles
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
Mr. Giovanni Melina
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
,
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
, and
Carlo Pizzinelli
Many emerging market and developing economies face a difficult trade-off between economic support and fiscal sustainability. Market-oriented structural reforms ease this trade-off by promoting economic growth and strengthening public finances. The empirical analysis in this note, based on 62 EMDEs over 1973-2014, shows that reforms are associated with sizeable and long-lasting reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio mainly through higher fiscal revenues and lower borrowing costs. These effects are larger in countries with greater tax efficiency, lower informality, and higher initial debt. Moreover, a model-based analysis elaborates on how such fiscal gains can be enhanced when revenue windfalls associated with reforms are saved or channeled through higher public investment.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Debt Dynamics; Economic Regulation; Structural Reforms; Emerging Market Economies; Low-Income Developing Countries; market reform; reform impact; GDP ratio; government debt reduction; government policy response; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Debt reduction; Fiscal stance; Global; Asia and Pacific; Debt sustainability analysis
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Transforming Public Finance Through GovTech
David Amaglobeli
,
Ruud A. de Mooij
,
Andualem Mengistu
,
Mariano Moszoro
,
Manabu Nose
,
Soheib Nunhuck
,
Sailendra Pattanayak
,
Lorena Rivero del Paso
,
Frankosiligi Solomon
,
Ms. Rebecca Sparkman
,
Hervé Tourpe
, and
Gerardo Uña
Digital divide across countries and within countries continues to persist and even increased when the quality of internet connection is considered. The note shows that many governments have not been able to harness the full potential of digitalization. Governments could play important role to facilitate digital adoption by intervening both on supply (investing in infrastructure) and demand side (increase internet affordability). The note also documents significant dividends from digital adoption for revenue collection and spending efficiency, and for outcomes in education, health and social safety nets. The note also emphasizes that digitalization is not a substitute for good governance and that comprehensive reform plans embedded in National Digital Strategies (NDS) combined with legal and institutional reforms are needed to ensure that governments can reap full benefits from digitalization and manage the risks appropriately.
Keywords:
GovTech; Digitalization; Inequality; Public Finance; Social Dividends; governance pillar; A. government strategy; assessment tool; A. digital divide; government transfer; staff discussion note SDN2023/004; management information system; government technology; PFM information systems; Caribbean; Middle East; North Africa; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover India’s Financial System
India’s Financial System
Building the Foundation for Strong and Sustainable Growth

Abstract

India has experienced a prolonged period of strong economic growth since it embarked on major structural reforms and economic liberalization in 1991, with real GDP growth averaging about 6.6 percent during 1991–2019. Millions have been lifted out of poverty. With a population of 1.4 billion and about 7 percent of the world economic output (in purchasing power parity terms), India is the third largest economy—after the US and China. As such, developments in India have significant global and regional implications, including via spillovers through international trade and global supply chains. At the same time, India’s economic development has not been linear and has been impacted by external and domestic shocks, some directly related to the financial sector. Indeed, India was not spared from external regional and global shocks, such as the Asian financial crisis (1997), the global financial crisis (2008), and more recently, the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (from 2020) and the war in Ukraine (2022). The economy has also been hit by domestic shocks. The book covers how to strengthen the financial system to support growth and reduce vulnerabilities by discussing the linkages between the financial sector and growth, improvements in bank lending to foster productivity, and measures to further develop India’s corporate bond market. The book reflects on India’s success in leveraging digitalization to foster financial inclusion and highlights how the financial system can help to address climate issues. This book digs deeper into the various facets of India’s financial sector to understand its strengths and opportunities and to elicit policy actions that could help the financial sector better support India’s growth potential.

Keywords:
Growth and financial system; banking; corporate bond markets; macro-financial linkages; volatile capital flows; resolution frameworks; green finance; financial inclusion; monetary policy communication; credit growth; PSB dependence; private sector bank; bank capitalization; corporate bond bond market; Credit; Solvency; Bank credit; Climate finance; Global; Asia and Pacific; South Asia; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Rephasing and Reduction of Access, Waivers of nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Rephasing and Reduction of Access, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PC), and Financing Assurances Review. The authorities have made concerted efforts to bring their economic recovery program back on track and stabilize the economy, foremost by restoring fiscal discipline, while expanding social assistance programs to protect the poor. They have also reached important milestones in debt restructuring negotiations, which, alongside fiscal consolidation, will support Suriname’s efforts to restore debt sustainability. The end-December 2022 quantitative performance criteria on the cumulative central government primary balance and net domestic assets were missed. Two continuous PCs and one standard continuous PC were also breached. Progress on implementing the structural agenda has moved ahead but with delays. The authorities are continuing to make progress with their structural reform agenda. Structural reforms to strengthen institutions, governance, and data quality remain key priorities with continued capacity building support by IMF and Suriname’s other development partners.
Keywords:
roadmap triage; staff appraisal; governance reform of bank; government FX sale; sales transaction; Exchange rates; Multiple currency practices; Arrears; Caribbean; Global